TS Aletta,Sat. Images,Comments,Models,Advisories,Etc. Thread

[JamesFromMaine2]

yes its still alive and it could still develop more so why are they discontinueing advisories?

[P.K.]

They'll keep releasing advisories, just not the public ones as it isn't expected to affect land.

[HURAKAN]

The NHC only issues public advisories for the EPAC when a system is being a menace to a country and a watch and/or warning is issued. In the Atlantic, public advisories are always issued no matter the condition of the cyclone.

[StormScanWx]

Will the NHC still be doing the Graphics and Discussion?

[CrazyC83]

The NHC only issues public advisories for the EPAC when a system is being a menace to a country and a watch and/or warning is issued. In the Atlantic, public advisories are always issued no matter the condition of the cyclone.

I think they should always issue public advisories as shipping channels lie in the way...

[HURAKAN]

The NHC only issues public advisories for the EPAC when a system is being a menace to a country and a watch and/or warning is issued. In the Atlantic, public advisories are always issued no matter the condition of the cyclone.

I think they should always issue public advisories as shipping channels lie in the way...

Agree, public advisories are easy to understand and follow.

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291736
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALETTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
1100 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006

...ALETTA MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CANCELED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA
MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM PDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALETTA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.8 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...195 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

ALETTA IS MOVING WEST AT 4 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. HOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALETTA IS DIMINISHING ALONG THE
COASTLINE.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM PDT POSITION...16.0 N...101.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST AT 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON ALETTA ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

29/1745 UTC 15.3N 101.6W T2.5/3.0 ALETTA -- East Pacific Ocean


TOO HIGH? MOST LIKELY!!!

[P.K.]

I think they should always issue public advisories as shipping channels lie in the way...

They'll use the forecast advisory instead surely? The public advisory isn't really aimed at shipping.

[Thunder44]

It doesn't even look like it has a closed surface circulation anymore on visible images.

[Janice]

Wow, isn't this kind of early, still May?

[SouthFloridawx]

[WindRunner]

21Z advisory out, not looking good:

TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006
200 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ALETTA BRIEFLY APPEARED EARLIER TODAY AS A
BANDING FEATURE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS AND THE CONVECTION
IS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/05. ALETTA HAS MAINTAINED
A WESTWARD MOTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
BUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND STEER ALETTA
WESTWARD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE
WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE BAMM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

ONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR ALETTA TO SLIGHTLY RE-STRENGTHEN AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SHARPLY IN A DAY OR SO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...ALETTA MAY WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FAVORS THE GFDL GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE SHIPS MODEL IS
STRONGER BUT APPEARS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR. AS A
RESULT OF THE IMPINGING DRY AIR AND FORECASTED INCREASED SHEAR IN
THE LATER PERIODS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT
LOW WITHIN 4-5 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.

FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 15.9N 102.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.9N 102.8W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.7W 35 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.7W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W 25 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

[wxmann_91]

There's too much dry air around Aletta. Really, I think the shear may have helped it as it increased the UL divergence, allowing convection to blow up. There may be some strengthening during the convective maximum later tonight and maybe as the shear kicks up a little bit, before it gets prohibitive.

[Thunder44]

That QS is from this morning. There does appear to be a LLC on the NE side, but it looks elongated or doesn't look completely closed off.

[HURAKAN]

Wow, isn't this kind of early, still May?

Since 2000, the first system of the EPAC hurricane season has developed in May.

ALETTA '00: 105 MPH
ADOLPH '01: 145 MPH
ALMA '02: 115 MPH
ANDRES '03: 60 MPH
AGATHA '04: 60 MPH
ADRIAN '05: 80 MPH
ALETTA '06: 45 MPH (SO FAR)

So, in 7 years, 7 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes. and 2 major hurricanes. By the way, Adolph was the strongest May hurricane for the EPAC.

[Janice]

Thanks, I guess we do not have to wait any longer.....

[Epsilon_Fan]

Aletta kinda looks ragged to say the least...

[HURAKAN]

SEE YOU IN 2012!!! FIRST TIME I SAY THAT!!!

[wx247]

Well, that was a good warmup.