Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[Noles2006]

Yes, Cat2 sucks, too. But, I don't see any way this thing gets ramped up that far before any landfall. Like AFM said, bad start to the season, intensity-wise, for the GFDL.

[gatorcane]

Just imagine the current system farther north - look how much convection is well east of the LLC - where peninsula Florida would be. If it moves northward and not WNW, then Florida will have some good rains this weekend. Of course if it doesn't move much then maybe extreme Southern Florida will see some effects.

Looking at the sat pics the high clouds over central florida were pushing south and now they are moving back north - indicating that the storminess from this system should begin to wrap around the eastern side and start penetrating South Florida.

Looks to me like it will eventually consolidate closer to the Caymens eventually...probably sometime tomorrow or Sunday.

Air Force Met - I think you are right on that looks like it keeps shifting farther east - that means the models will initialize the storm farther east which would could put all of peninsula Florida under the gun.

[Derek Ortt]

104KT for GFDL

better have some of the best QG forcing I have ever seen, or else it is going to be horribly wrong yet again

[HURAKAN]

Yes I agree...But the gulf can change very fast in become unfaverable. The dry air and the fact that this has some work to do to change the atmosphere into a more supportive enviroment=the c storm of 2003 if you went to know what I'm talking about.

Claudette!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yes hard name to spell.

[Wnghs2007]

This is what I gathered from looking at the GFDL page: The winds are taken from the 950 mb level which means the 10 meter winds are going to be 15-25% less than what the GFDL predicts. So keeping that in mind thats 88.4 knts with a 15% reduction to 78 knts with a 25% reduction.

Though that doesnt matter though because the GFDL is way way off on its intensity prediction. With the amount of shear and dry air forecast by the models there is no possible way the system gets that strong.

BTW I like Bar-B-Q crow if Im wrong...just to let you know in advance.

[gatorcane]

This is what I gathered from looking at the GFDL page: The winds are taken from the 950 mb level which means the 10 meter winds are going to be 15-25% less than what the GFDL predicts. So keeping that in mind thats 88.4 knts with a 15% reduction to 78 knts with a 25% reduction.

Though that doesnt matter though because the GFDL is way way off on its intensity prediction. With the amount of shear and dry air forecast by the models there is no possible way the system gets that strong.

What shear - looks like the shear is light in the GOM right now.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Guest its almost time for me to go be back tomarrow!!!

[Air Force Met]

Matt - it's up to the dry air to stop this thing. SSTs and shear appear to be favorable for it in the eastern GOM and NW Caribbean. Do you agree?

Just because it is June doesn't mean that we can't see a hurricane - although climatologically it is not as likely as a T.S or depression.

The only reason shear is low right now in the eastern GOM is because there is an upper level LOW there....NOT a high. There is always low shear in the middle of extratropical cold core lows...but that is a terrible place for tropical development.

Shear will relax over the eastern GOM...but not totally. There will be westerly winds over the northern GOM throughout the time period.

[whereverwx]

Wow, it looks impressive.


I've been away for a few hours; have we a definite "center" to this thing?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree it has a good center. But I'v got to wait intill tomarrow to find out

[Wnghs2007]

What shear - looks like the shear is light in the GOM right now.

If you take a look at the GFS for instance why would all the convection be 100-200 miles to the east of the area of low pressure if there was not shear. Otherwise the convection would consolidate much closer to the center than the GFS shows. The same is true for the other models, which most, also show the convection sheared away from the area of low pressure.

EDIT....not to mention that the upper level trough that is going to pick the system up will be imparting shear on the system.

[Air Force Met]

104KT for GFDL

better have some of the best QG forcing I have ever seen, or else it is going to be horribly wrong yet again

Yeah...the best ET event in June ever.

[gatorcane]

Matt - it's up to the dry air to stop this thing. SSTs and shear appear to be favorable for it in the eastern GOM and NW Caribbean. Do you agree?

Just because it is June doesn't mean that we can't see a hurricane - although climatologically it is not as likely as a T.S or depression.

The only reason shear is low right now in the eastern GOM is because there is an upper level LOW there....NOT a high. There is always low shear in the middle of extratropical cold core lows...but that is a terrible place for tropical development.

Shear will relax over the eastern GOM...but not totally. There will be westerly winds over the northern GOM throughout the time period.

Ok thanks for the info - makes sense

[SouthFloridawx]

How bout a possible center at 17.5 N 82.5 W ..(around that area)?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Do you think this may move up the Florida EC?

[wxman57]

I go away for 10 minutes and y'all have almost filled up another 10-page thread.

Looks like a "swirl hunt" now.

[gatorcane]

Do you think this may move up the Florida EC?

I'm just telling everybody it is not out of the question it impacts South Florida....especially if the center is relocated farther east....

[Stormcenter]

It sure like there are two separate centers.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[drezee]

104KT for GFDL

better have some of the best QG forcing I have ever seen, or else it is going to be horribly wrong yet again

For the newbies, QG means quasigeostrophic (QG)
The forcing of vertical motion is given by the divergence of Q-Vector.