NW Carribean

[Ivanhater]

Of course development is not occurring right now. I explained why in my posts earlier today. What you have to look at is down the road. All the players are coming together for development this weekend into next week. Today we had outflow boundaries which is not a good sign for development. However as the vigorous wave moves into the southern gulf this weekend and with a stalled out front in the gulf we will see a clash so to speak, I believe we will see a huge mess to begin with, then a system starting to take shape next week. As I have said, development now will not happen but all the players are starting to come together. IMO, and I do not mind going out on a limb, we will see Beryl in the gulf next week.

I hear what you are saying but it sure does look impressive right considering there is nothing there at the moment.

To be honest, I did not think it would persists this long, but it has and with any persistent cluster, it must be watched

[skysummit]

The gulf is just continuing to get more and more favorable.

[Ivanhater]

Plenty of mositure to work with as it moves into the gulf...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The wave axis at 85.5 has a MLC at 19.8 like I pointed out earlier. Now see that convection has fired over it. That is what we will have to watch as it moves over the Yucatan. Then back into the Gulf.

[southerngale]

Hunter...I don't think saying that would be a lie. The NHC is doing a wonderful job this year. They nailed Alberto, and and they were correct about every other Invest.

What I meant is should I either express my real feelings or should I express fake feelings?

I think there are times when it's just not necessary to express your feelings at all, at least on here. Some things are better kept to yourself, particularly things like calling the NHC irresponsible for not saying a wave might develop when they don't think it will, just to appease people who are impatiently waiting for a TS/cane to develop.

[Thunder44]

People need to remember that TWO is actually meant to actually only to briefly discuss areas of interest. Sometimes I find the TWO's to be vague and generic, but if the area doesn't have much chance of developing, don't expect alot to be said about it. Also it only covers about 48 hour period. So you wouldn't hear talk about possible development beyond that period.

[wxman57]

The wave axis at 85.5 has a MLC at 19.8 like I pointed out earlier. Now see that convection has fired over it. That is what we will have to watch as it moves over the Yucatan. Then back into the Gulf.

I think that the wave axis is west of there, closer to 87.5W this morning. The top of the wave is interacting with a weak upper level low, causing thunderstorms to form east of the wave axis. As the wave axis passes the low today, I think that convection will drop off over the NW Caribbean and fire over the Yucatan. Doesn't look like conditions will be favorable for development over the next 2-3 days before the system moves across the BoC and into Mexico and/or the East Pac. Check out the upper level wind forecast valid tomorrow night, for example:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048m.gif

Strong WNW-NW winds into the southern Gulf and NW Caribbean this weekend. Certainly not favorable upper level winds with a wave moving westward at 20 kts.

[SouthFloridawx]

Doesn't look like conditions will be favorable for development over the next 2-3 days

Looking at the upper level wind forecast.. I would have to tend to agree with wxman57 on that one.

24 hours 300mb wind/hghts
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

36 Hours 300mb wind/hghts
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

48 Hours 300mb wind/hghts
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

54 Hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

Starting to become more favorable at day 5
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

Definitely more favorable at 6-7 days out as an upper level anti-cyclone looks to be positioned over the GOM.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

805 TWD

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A SHARPE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING LARGE
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OVER THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 81W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US DIPPING S INTO THE N GULF
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ALONG 29W/30W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF N
OF 26N. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT MYERS
FLORIDA TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF 26N E OF 88W TO OVER THE FLORIDA. BROAD N/S UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER MEXICO COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A MID LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N94W MOVING S TOWARD
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DOT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 13N85W NNE
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF
14N E OF 76W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

[SouthFloridawx]

It is interesting to see that the covection still persists. There is lower level convergence and upper level divergence but, as wxman pointed out this is all probably to due with the upper level trough and the tropical wave moving through the area. I would be interested to see how long this can persists because currently there is no much upper level shear going on there.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif

[rockyman]

Conditions continue to look prime for development near the Yucatan Channel...Upper level convergence, lower level convergence, and shear are favorable...there's a tropical wave in the area (the spark)...convection is firing...trying to be objective...this area seems to have the most simultaneous positive factors for development that I've seen this season...

[boca]

The ingredients are there plus a wet MJO.It has to develop in the Caribbean due to the fact that their is shear in the GOM right now due to the trough in the NGOM.

[SouthFloridawx]

The ingredients are there plus a wet MJO.It has to develop in the Caribbean due to the fact that their is shear in the GOM right now due to the trough in the NGOM.

Boca if you look at the 300mb 00 hour winds/hghts you will see that the upper level winds in the southeast gom are not very high right now. At the max 10kts. So ruling out developement in the extreme southeastern gom is not out of the question.

[boca]

This area is moving due west right into the Yucatan. I agree conditions are ideal but it looks like it will continue moving west across the Yucatan into the BOC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[bigmoney755]

my gut tells me the next TWO will include the words, "tropical cyclone formation is not expected".

[HurricaneHunter914]

I wouldn't be suprised because right now it looks like its about to head right into the Yucatan Peninsula.

[cheezyWXguy]

how are conditions in the BOC?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Conditions right now are becoming really favorable in the BOC and the GOM. Conditions should be right for this system to become Beryl over the weekend.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

It may be small, but it has really persistent nicely.

[skysummit]

Conditions right now are becoming really favorable in the BOC and the GOM. Conditions should be right for this system to become Beryl over the weekend.

Just so no one gets confused, this is not a "system" so to speak, it's a tropical wave. We can't get Beryl until we get a Tropical Depression. We can't get a Tropical Depression until we get a closed low at the surface. We can't get a closed low at the surface until we have a low level circulation, and we can't get that with the pressures so high. So I'd say it has a way to go.