INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

#141 Postby **AJC3** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:22 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
bvigal wrote:

So, no development, no closed low, no TD or TS, right?

I think we are getting close. I think the TWO at 5:30 will say something about it being close or that a weak LLC has developed.

Bing bing. Speak of the devil.

Give the man a french curve and a set of colored mecnhanical pencils!

Oh, and a cookie too!

#142 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:23 pm

Thank you, guys. I'm headed out to SAR meeting, and you may have helped a lot in preventing some nasty incident. Better to be prepared for worst than have a guessing game until too late.

Swimdude · #143 Postby **Swimdude** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:24 pm

Anyone else amused that a TD has formed in both the Eastern Pacific AND Western Pacific today... And that we're watching the Atlantic for a similar scenario? :bday:

#144 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:26 pm

Swimdude wrote:Anyone else amused that a TD has formed in both the Eastern Pacific AND Western Pacific today... And that we're watching the Atlantic for a similar scenario?

Is it the moon phase, or solar wind? :wink:

HurricaneHunter914 · #145 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:26 pm

Thanks for pointing that out swimdude never really thought of it like that. The Northern Hemisphere is getting pretty active.

ROCK · #146 Postby **ROCK** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:27 pm

Wow...Just got home today and I must say that this wave looks 10x better than yesterday. Think it should be at least a TD. I have seen worst classified as such.

#147 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:28 pm

The TD in the NW Pacific has actually been a TD since Friday. There was also a low pressure area (less than 17kts) in the Bay of Bengal yesterday so there has been activity in all the Northern Hemisphere basins recently if you go back five days or so.

#148 Postby **greg_kfdm_tv** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:29 pm

Southwest winds at 12 knots (21Z) from bouy 41110.

HurricaneHunter914 · #149 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:29 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

Its about to get hit by the biggest problem it has now. Dry Air.

WindRunner · #150 Postby **WindRunner** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:29 pm

Swimdude wrote:Anyone else amused that a TD has formed in both the Eastern Pacific AND Western Pacific today... And that we're watching the Atlantic for a similar scenario?

Hate to burst your bubble . . . but the WPAC TD formed on Friday the 28th. :wink:

EDIT: Bah, PK beat me to it . . . as he should have. He's been following it better than all of us.

#151 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:29 pm

benny wrote:
We'll just have to disagree about the TSTM related wind. I don't think so and I see little evidence of it on satellite. As far as the streamlines.. as someone with forecast experience in the tropics... I've never seen any use for them. Of course I suppose what it is you are forecasting makes all the difference in the world. Everyone in the Pacific loves the streamlines but I personally can't stand them. A person can invent something with satellite if you like but ... as for as TCs go.. they don't really illustrate a whole lot unless you have data.. and not just satellite. But if you find the streamlines useful.. go for it! Some people can't live without them and I'm not sure why.

Yeah...we'll have to disagree...but you won't see any evidence becuase the evidence is sitting under 40,000+ feet of clouds. It's an outflow boundry. :lol:

As far as using them in forecasting...it depends on what you are foreacsting. If you have spent time actually forecasting in the tropics...you would find them useful (and I mean putting out a forecast for a location you are at that is sitting below 20N). If you don't know why some people can't live without them...than you have never been in a limited data situation...because in that the are invaluable. YOu cannot get by without them...and I challenge you to try. Heck...I challenge ANYONE to try. I've been a forecaster for almost 20 years now...I don't use streamlines unless I am in the tropics...or to illustrate what is going on...like what happened today. The CUSP was there...it sharpened...and as I pointed out...that is the last stage before an LLC forms. Now..Bingo.

Thunder44 · #152 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:32 pm

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:Southwest winds at 12 knots (21Z) from bouy 41110.

Looks like we may have closed surface circulation or pretty close to it now.

Grease Monkey · #153 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:33 pm

I thought that was already confirmed in the last TWO update.

Thunder44 · #154 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:34 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:I thought that was already confirmed in the last TWO update.

It wasn't closed.

#155 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:34 pm

If the organization continues to improve,I expect a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement later tonight as it is very close to the islands.

#156 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:35 pm

Thunder44 wrote:
greg_kfdm_tv wrote:Southwest winds at 12 knots (21Z) from bouy 41110.

Looks like we may have closed surface circulation or pretty close to it now.

We do. The CUSP closed off.

Think of a CUSP as a wave moving into shallow waters. It builds, sharpens, then breaks into a closed circulation....although this one is weak and if recon went in...I think we would see some SW winds and a lot of light and variable. Probably not any west winds yet. I think the pressure will need to come down another mb or two for that.

#157 Postby **drezee** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:36 pm

OK, for those who have been arguing for a while...let it go. There is clear and I mean clear evidence that this system now has a Low Level Circulation. Now let's get to the part of will it maintian it ot not...

Let's recap...

Pressure falls to a NW wind then press rises when the wind changes to SW. LLC passes just N of the buoy or almost over it...this is clear cut...case closed

HurricaneHunter914 · #158 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:If the organization continues to improve,I expect a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement later tonight as it is very close to the islands.

The TWO did say that all this needs is a slight increase in organization and we'll be saying hi to TD#3

#159 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:38 pm

For those of you who were calling for no development on 99L, don't quit your day job. J/K. This thing can still go poof just like it all the sudden started getting better organization against all odds. But most likely it will continue to get better organize and develop into a depression.

Cyclenall · #160 Postby **Cyclenall** » Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:38 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

Wow, the shear just went kinda neutral in the tropics with mostly low shear.

Wow, just wow. The tropics chance very fast indeed. If this shear map or tendency chart is correct, then 99L shouldn't run into problems on a west track.

INVEST 99L near Leewards,comments,sat pics,etc #4

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