Hurricane Ioke thread

[cycloneye]

WTPA42 PHFO 210242
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006

IOKE WHICH BEGAN AS A DEPRESSION ONLY 24 HOURS AGO HAS INTENSIFIED VERY RAPIDLY INTO A HURRICANE. ALTHO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS LIMITED ITS FT TO A 3.5 THE POPPING OF AN EYE SINCE 22Z PERSUADES US TO ELEVATE ITS INTENSITY TO HURRICANE STATUS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PERSISTENTLY WARM WATER OF 28 DEGREES C. ALSO SHEARING ALOFT IS MINIMAL AND THUS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS 10 KNOT SHEARING AT 72 HOURS INCREASES TO 21 KNOTS AT 120 HOURS. THE OVERALL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WHICH HAD BEEN SHIFTED MORE WESTWARD 12 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN NUDGED BACK EASTWARD A BIT TO JOIN THE MAJORITY MODEL CLUSTER. THIS TRACK STILL MAKES A PASS 100 MILES AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND PLACING THAT ISLAND WITHIN IOKES GALE OR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WIND RADII WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 11.5N 163.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 12.2N 165.8W 75 KT
24HR VT 22/0000Z 13.6N 168.2W 80 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 15.0N 170.1W 85 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 171.9W 90 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 18.1N 173.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 19.9N 174.8W 80 KT
120HR VT 26/0000Z 21.4N 175.9W 70 KT


$$ FORECASTER MATSUDA

[JonathanBelles]

does anyone have a tracking map for the CPAC?

[cycloneye]

does anyone have a tracking map for the CPAC?

Forecast Track Graphic

Here you go.

[bob rulz]

does anyone have a tracking map for the CPAC?

Forecast Track Graphic

Here you go.

That links to the West Pacific.

[senorpepr]

does anyone have a tracking map for the CPAC?

Forecast Track Graphic

Here you go.

That links to the West Pacific.

Nope... that's the CPAC. The furthest west that map goes is the International Dateline.

[wxmann_91]

does anyone have a tracking map for the CPAC?

Forecast Track Graphic

Here you go.

That links to the West Pacific.

Nope... that's the CPAC. The furthest west that map goes is the International Dateline.

When he posted it the link indeed was a map of the WPAC. Now it's corrected.

[bob rulz]

does anyone have a tracking map for the CPAC?

Forecast Track Graphic

Here you go.

That links to the West Pacific.

Nope... that's the CPAC. The furthest west that map goes is the International Dateline.

When he posted it the link indeed was a map of the WPAC. Now it's corrected.

Ah, okay...see? I was right.

[JonathanBelles]

does anyone have a tracking map for the CPAC?

Forecast Track Graphic

Here you go.

That links to the West Pacific.

Nope... that's the CPAC. The furthest west that map goes is the International Dateline.

When he posted it the link indeed was a map of the WPAC. Now it's corrected.

Ah, okay...see? I was right.

i asked for a tracking map not Ioki's forecast.

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE IOKE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006

CORRECTED WORDING IN 7TH PARAGRAPH

...HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

AT 1100 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IOKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.0 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND AND ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...HAWAII.

IOKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

HURRICANE IOKE IS NOT A THREAT TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ON JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD PREPARE FOR
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS THE OUTER WINDS FROM THIS
HURRICANE APPROACH THAT ISLAND LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY.


REPEATING THE 1100 PM HST POSITION...11.7 N...165.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM HST.

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[WindRunner]

And an excellent discussion. Now forecasted as a major in 36-48hrs.

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 20 2006

HURRICANE IOKE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST IR IMAGERY FROM THE GOES11 AT 0800 UTC...THE LAST IMAGE RECEIVED BEFORE ECLIPSE...SHOWED THE EYE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE PROMINENT THAN WHEN THE 0600 UTC FIXES WERE MADE. SATELLITE FIXES WERE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE LOCATION OF THIS EYE. THE SATELLITE AGENCIES PROVIDED ESTIMATED CI VALUES RANGING FROM 3.5 TO 4.5. AODT YIELDED 4.6 AT PHFO. BASED ON THESE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVING APPEARANCE OF IOKE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A WINDSAT PASS WHICH SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT AT LEAST 2 DEGREES OF LATITUDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO...HAVE INCREASED THE 12 FOOT SEAS.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF IOKE IS 300 DEG AT 11 KT. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS MODEL... CONU...WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS CONSENSUS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GFSI. THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THERE IS ALSO A RIDGE LOCATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF IOKE ALONG LATITUDE 25N. THE DEEP LAYER STEERING FROM THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT MOVEMENT OF IOKE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME SLOWING OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND DAY 3.

THE SHIPS MODEL WAS USED FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING QUITE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY INVEST AREA 91C. THE MODEL CORRECTLY FORECAST INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE INTENSITY A FEW DAYS AGO. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS IOKE NEARS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE HURRICANE AFTER 72 HOURS.

ALL INTERESTS ON AND AROUND JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF THE OUTER WINDS FROM AN INTENSIFYING IOKE. THE FORECAST CLOSEST APPROACH OF THIS HURRICANE TO THAT ISLAND WOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS. THE PRESENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IOKE SOUTHWEST OF THAT ISLAND...WHICH WOULD PLACE THAT ISLAND IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE GALE WIND RADII OF THE HURRICANE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 11.7N 165.0W 70 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 12.7N 166.7W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.2N 168.9W 95 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.5N 170.6W 100 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.8N 172.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 18.7N 174.2W 90 KT
96HR VT 25/0600Z 21.2N 175.6W 80 KT
120HR VT 26/0600Z 23.3N 176.8W 70 KT


$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[HURAKAN]

This should be an exciting time in the CPAC Hurricane Center since they don't get this very often, especially home-grown.

[HURAKAN]

It seems Ioke is trying to become a very potent system!!

[HURAKAN]

21/1200 UTC 11.9N 165.2W T5.0/5.0 IOKE -- Central Pacific Ocean


IOKE ISN'T A JOKE!!!

[cycloneye]

000
WTPA42 PHFO 211447
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 AM HST MON AUG 21 2006

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HURRICANE IOKE IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE LATEST IR IMAGERY FROM THE GOES11 AT 1400 UTC CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. THIS EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ESTIMATED TO BE AS LOW AS MINUS 79C. AGAIN...THE SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE LOCATION OF THIS EYE. THE SATELLITE AGENCIES PROVIDED ESTIMATED CI VALUES RANGING FROM 4.0 TO 5.0. AODT YIELDED 5.5 AT PHFO. BASED ON THESE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVING APPEARANCE OF IOKE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 75 KT. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT WERE ALSO MADE TO THE INITIAL WIND RADII...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF IOKE IS 295 DEG AT 10 KT. THE PRIMARY DYNAMIC AND GLOBAL TRACK MODELS HAVE A RATHER SMALL SPREAD THROUGH DAY 5. THIS NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE CONSENSUS MODEL...CONU...WAS AGAIN FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS CONSENSUS ALSO HAPPENS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GFSI THROUGH DAY 4. THE GFDI LIES TO THE RIGHT AND THE UKMET LIES TO THE LEFT OF CONU. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE INFLUENCE OF A MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THERE IS ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST NORTHEAST OF IOKE ALONG LATITUDE 25N. THE DEEP LAYER STEERING FROM THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN THE PRESENT MOVEMENT OF IOKE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME SLOWING OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND DAY 3. IN FACT...AT DAY 5 THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IOKE MAY SLOW TO A CRAWL.

THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF IOKE DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...NO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THIS PACKAGE AS COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF IOKE FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE VICINITY OF JOHNSTON ISLAND SHOULD IMMEDIATELY PREPARE FOR THE ONSET OF THE OUTER WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS SEAS FROM AN INTENSIFYING IOKE. THE FORECAST CLOSEST APPROACH OF THIS HURRICANE TO THAT ISLAND WILL TAKE PLACE IN LESS THAN 30 HOURS. THE PRESENT TRACK WOULD TAKE IOKE SOUTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE ISLAND IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE GALE WIND RADII OF THE HURRICANE. THE FORECAST 50 KT WIND RADII IS ALSO CLOSE TO THIS ISLAND AS IOKE PASSES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 12.3N 165.8W 75 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 13.4N 167.3W 85 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 15.0N 169.2W 95 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.3N 170.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.4N 172.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 19.3N 174.1W 90 KT
96HR VT 25/1200Z 21.3N 175.8W 80 KT
120HR VT 26/1200Z 23.0N 177.4W 70 KT


$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[CrazyC83]

I'm thinking the track will be more west than north, and it will become a MONSTER as it reaches the dateline.

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - just my prediction.

It is quite different than the CPHC/NHC prediction, taking it westward and also intensifying it much more.

Current - 12.3/165.8 - 985mb - 85mph
12 hrs - 12.6/167.9 - 975mb - 105mph
24 hrs - 13.2/170.1 - 966mb - 115mph
36 hrs - 13.8/173.2 - 954mb - 125mph
48 hrs - 14.3/177.0 - 942mb - 145mph
60 hrs - 15.1/179.6 - 938mb - 150mph
72 hrs - 15.9/177.7E - 936mb - 150mph Super Typhoon
96 hrs - 17.4/172.6E - 952mb - 135mph Typhoon
120 hrs - 19.3/166.8E - 974mb - 105mph Typhoon

[wxmann_91]

Although your prediction might be a little bullish CrazyC83, I do not see why this will not become a major hurricane. The forward motion has been rapid, thus the slow development despite the textbook outflow pattern, and the convection has been dependent on diurnal maximums. However, once this slows, and the inner core stablizes, which it may do tonight after another diurnal maximum, rapid intensification could occur.

[Cyclenall]

Ioke is certainly not a joke this afternoon with a rounder and clearing eye coming into play. It looks more tiny and compact like many Epac and/or Cpac systems are when strong. It should be around 80-85 knots when that eye clears out and if deep convection forms a good ring around Ioke, it should become a major. It's sort of like Hurricane Bud (2006).

[WmE]

Ioke is certainly not a joke this afternoon with a rounder and clearing eye coming into play. It looks more tiny and compact like many Epac and/or Cpac systems are when strong. It should be around 80-85 knots when that eye clears out and if deep convection forms a good ring around Ioke, it should become a major. It's sort of like Hurricane Bud (2006).

Yeah, right it reminds me of Bud too. It deepened rapidly and IMO it looks very similar to Bud.

[Jim Cantore]

GFDL brings this into quite a powerful Hurricane

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/ioke01c/fcst/archive/06082106/1.html