Invest 97L E Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[AJC3]

Or a better enhancement for WV imagery.

Also, what i use at home is a great companion program that makes it very easy to compose/name your own subsectors within the predefined GHCC sectors. It's called GHCCSAT by Mike Bryson.

http://www.nexrad3.com/GhccSat.html

Yeah...a better enhancement on the WV would be nice.

Thanks for the program. I always just modify the parameters I have...moving the lat/long around from the bookmark I've made.

One thing about the program that i forgot to mention is that folders are created each subsector you make, and separated within that folder into subfolders according to image type. Each image that is loaded is saved in .jpg format if you like to have significant events for posterity.

[Derek Ortt]

I should say that John is nearly as conservative as I am when it comes to a system developing, maybe even more so

Maybe 4 years with me has rubbed off as he used to be far more aggressive

[fci]

Never really thought of this...

But are the forecasters that write the TWDs based in Miami?

Just curious; but what is the relevance of where they are located?

[Grease Monkey]

Wow we got the invest... Things are really getting going now.

All we've mostly been having this year were invests. This is not indication of the tropics are really going to get going IMO.

[JTD]

hmm....Ships develops this system slowly but surely.... 51kts in 5 days.... would this be Ernesto if it develops?

I haven't seen the SHIPS model intensity predictions pan out without any invest all year. I would throw that out as it never seems to verify.

[cycloneye]

[fwbbreeze]

Wow we got the invest... Things are really getting going now.

All we've mostly been having this year were invests. This is not indication of the tropics are really going to get going IMO.

Ummm we have a TD which appears to be getting better organized, and now this invest....I would say things have picked up a bit!!

fwbbreeze

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS assumes that the invest is already a TD. That is why it nearly always overdoes an invest

[ConvergenceZone]

I should say that John is nearly as conservative as I am when it comes to a system developing, maybe even more so

Maybe 4 years with me has rubbed off as he used to be far more aggressive

Hehe, I bet you guys weren't too conservative last year....

[ConvergenceZone]

John has not done much work with Saharan dust

His research centered on topographic impacts of PR and Hispaniola on Hurricane Georges, thats his specialty, though he did get a daily spiel from me on dry air interactions

I'm going to see what he's thinking on this one

let us know what you find out about this Derek if you talk to him...I'm curious too.

[SouthFloridawx]

Luis that graphic doesn't quite look right.

[Stratosphere747]

Never really thought of this...

But are the forecasters that write the TWDs based in Miami?

Just curious; but what is the relevance of where they are located?

In person interaction between the forecasters....

[Dean4Storms]

This looks to be under northerly shear and does not look too impressive right now. Still think it won't do much till after 50w.

[cycloneye]

Luis that graphic doesn't quite look right.

Why? I see the plots for 97L right.Refresh the graphic if you see old stuff.

[Grease Monkey]

Wow we got the invest... Things are really getting going now.

All we've mostly been having this year were invests. This is not indication of the tropics are really going to get going IMO.

Ummm we have a TD which appears to be getting better organized, and now this invest....I would say things have picked up a bit!!

fwbbreeze

Same thing could of been said during the time of alberto, beryl, and chris. Things weren't that active then. If one TD and an invest is considered an acceleration in tropical activity (meaning also much more to come) then I must be missing something here.

[crownweather]

Ok Derek, whats your take on 97L (Central Atlantic Wave). Do you think its going to develop further (TD or higher??). My take based on the forecasted conditions is that development into a depression is very possible, especially when we get into Thu/Fri based on the favorability loop at http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/TROPDEV/devloop.html

Rob Lightbown
http://www.crownweather.com

[SouthFloridawx]

Luis that graphic doesn't quite look right.

Why? I see the plots for 97L right.Refresh the graphic if you see old stuff.

Ahhh there we go... thank you. I hate it when it does that.

[Derek Ortt]

I've already stated that I believe this has more potential than that SAL plower TD 4

[CronkPSU]

I no longer think this will be an invest today. It doesn't look good as it did earlier this morning. It appears to entrenched too much in the SAL to develop now. It's also heading towards an area of higher shear east of the islands:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

May need to be watch when it gets into the Carribean though.

should have stuck to your guns

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Looks like it may end up in the Southern Bahamas/SE of Florida by the end of the model plots (if I had to say right now). Interesting.