TS Ernesto #8 Sat pics, models, analysis thread

[Typhoon]

The infrared loop somehow gives the impression that Ernesto is slowing down, but I'm sure if that was the case, someone more knowledgeable would have mentioned this by now. Does anyone see what I'm seeing? Maybe the shear is becoming slightly more evident, or maybe I'm just too tired to think clearly.

[Mac]

I've always had a lot of faith in Derek and the other mets here on the board. But I think the shear is going to let up some in the next 12 to 24 hours and I do believe that we will have a minimal hurricane on our hands at this time tomorrow.

You have faith "but".
Isn't your opinion pretty much what Derek and the others had been saying?
IF Ernesto gets past the current shear he should intensify.

I mean we're not getting down to specific times of day but the general forecast he and the other Pro Mets have been posting is, thus far; true to form.

Nope. Not the same at all. I'm calling for a Cat 1 in 24 hrs. That is significantly earlier than the other forecasts I've seen from the mets.

[Jagno]

Hurricane Floyd; I pray that your record this year holds true to form as your prediction would wipe me out again.

[Jim Cantore]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Although I'm having an LBAR like year making forecasts, I'll try anyways, I got nothing better to do tonight. Mind you I made it this morning.


I had a good year in 2004, an ok year in 2005, and I'm having an awful year this year. I've made one correct prediction and that was TS at 5pm... just this afternoon. So don't even hold me to this, I beg you.

I like your forecast. It isn't over the top and is reasonable.
I wouldn't be shocked to see a Cat 3 though.

Thanks. And about being a cat 3. I wouldn't be shocked ether. This track is only assuming it makes it through the sheer. I'd much rather see it get slaughtered by sheer then strike the gulf coast.

[linkerweather]

A better image to look at is something the NHC began publically last year. That is the graphic with the wind speed probability polygons. For example, this storms tropical storm force wind probability out through day 5.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... ?tswind120

From what the NHC said at their conference last year, the probability maps are comprised of historical averages as well. They run thousands of track, intensity, radii possibilities and come up with those graphics. Forecaster confidence does not play any role in their preparation. The NHC may not have a clue where a storm is heading but the probabilities would be the same as if they're 100% sure.

From what I gathered from the NHC, they are using historical averages as a variable. Looking at these graphics from the last year and this year, they aren't the "same size". If they are using only history, how can you explain how the 50 knot prob graphic and hurricane force wind graphic have changed quite a bit, just over the last 12 hours?

[cpdaman]

typhoon the LLC is moving west north west likely at the same pace the convection is just not keeping up in the last hour

[HouTXmetro]

Now that Jamaica is under a TS warning will the NHC be issuing 3 hour updates?

[Bailey1777]

Still looks kike it's getting smacked in the face with shear to me but it does seem to be lessening some.

[Jim Cantore]

Hurricane Floyd; I pray that your record this year holds true to form as your prediction would wipe me out again.

I'm routing for it to get ripped apart, believe me.

[Typhoon]

Now that Jamaica is under a TS warning will the NHC be issuing 3 hour updates?

The NHC issued an 8pm intermediate advisory, so I'd imagine that they'll keep issuing intermediate advisories.

[wjs3]

Ernesto seems to be trying to establish an upper level anticyclone. I hope I have the terminology correct, but his outflow does appear to be improving.

Any comments on this statement would be appreciated.

Well, I haven't been following the satellite evolution...but when I evaluate upper level outflo I like to take a look at the upper level winds at CIMSS and look for anticyclonic winds over the storm:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

And divergence:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

Not a clear upper level anticyclone yet, I'd say...and though ther eis some upper level divergence, the best is located to the west of the convection (shear?)

EDIT--sorry, I meant EAST of the convection!

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Although I'm having an LBAR like year making forecasts, I'll try anyways, I got nothing better to do tonight. Mind you I made it this morning.


I had a good year in 2004, an ok year in 2005, and I'm having an awful year this year. I've made one correct prediction and that was TS at 5pm... just this afternoon. So don't even hold me to this, I beg you.

I like your forecast. It isn't over the top and is reasonable.
I wouldn't be shocked to see a Cat 3 though.

Thanks. And about being a cat 3. I wouldn't be shocked ether. This track is only assuming it makes it through the sheer. I'd much rather see it get slaughtered by sheer then strike the gulf coast.

Oh, me too. Last year was enough for me for a long time.

[linkerweather]

With respect to the wind probability graphic, this is from the NHC site....

These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years.


So....we are both correct!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Local TV met said he just talked to the NHC and they said the shear will have little to no affect on this system.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Even a track like that would batter the LA Coast severly.

[Jim Cantore]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Although I'm having an LBAR like year making forecasts, I'll try anyways, I got nothing better to do tonight. Mind you I made it this morning.


I had a good year in 2004, an ok year in 2005, and I'm having an awful year this year. I've made one correct prediction and that was TS at 5pm... just this afternoon. So don't even hold me to this, I beg you.

I like your forecast. It isn't over the top and is reasonable.
I wouldn't be shocked to see a Cat 3 though.

Thanks. And about being a cat 3. I wouldn't be shocked ether. This track is only assuming it makes it through the sheer. I'd much rather see it get slaughtered by sheer then strike the gulf coast.

Oh, me too. Last year was enough for me for a long time.

Which one got you?

[fci]

Fla us now officially un the clear--No Cone touches Fla so there is a ZERO chance of Fla Getting this

NEVER a zero chance until it clears your latitude and longitude.

That's one thing you learn.

Am I worried?
Not one bit.

But, I will watch until it is Northwest of me just to make sure...

[Stratosphere747]

Local TV met said he just talked to the NHC and they said the shear will have little to no affect on this system.

Which Houston Met said that?

[cpdaman]

EWG
little to no effect on the FINAL strength of the system so right now it is being sheared but this will be a mute point and just DELAY the inevitable (hurricane)

[Extremeweatherguy]

Local TV met said he just talked to the NHC and they said the shear will have little to no affect on this system.

Which Houston Met said that?

Frank B.