T.S Ernesto #10 Sat pics, analysis, models thread

[storms in NC]

Well it would make me fell better if it didn't go into NO cause I can't go this time to help out PaG. I am in a cast with a torn Achilles tendon. And Daughter was in a bad wreck on the 14th and has 2 broke ankles with pins and screws. I just don't know what I would do If it goes into La.

[wxman57]

One thing I'm sure of, there's no LLC near 15.1N/71.4W (extrapolated from NHC's 15Z position of 15.1/71.2). Nothing even remotely looking like low-level clouds rotating there. Do any of you see an LLC west of the convection? That was the point of my original post.

There is a moderate MLC to the northeast near 15.7N/70.5W, but no observations to confirm an LLC. Look at the arc of clouds streaming westward south of the DR. Squalls streaming away to the west don't indicate a significant inflow. I am not saying there is no closed low there, but it may be more broad and weaker than earlier today.

We will have to wait for the plane to see just where the center is. I think it looks less organized than earlier.

wxman57, isn't this a bit expected though with the shear conditions it's had to go through?? I know I didn't expect it to go through this shear and come out looking really good. I just knew that for it's survival it had to remain at least A LITTLE bit together. That convection isn't going to die down anytime soon. I'm surprised it looks even THIS good. Once I knew it had the shear to encounter, I was expecting maybe a marginal tropical storm or tropical depression, and then AFTER it passes the shear, THEN the storm would explode.

Correct, we didn't expect any strengthening today (yesterday).

[Steve]

>>From my experience the last 2 years the GFS hasn't done bad once it picks a system up.

But it's been handling handoffs awfully beyond 72 hours. We'll have to see how this plays out IMHO.

Steve

[gatorcane]

It's possible.

possible that the FL West coast could see this thing?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I may need to get off this site for a few hours. I am seeing too much crazy talk all of the sudden. I am amazed by how people cling onto these models (which have been performing poorly) as if they were gods. One run of the GFS (that is much different than the previous run) is not going to be the answer to anything.

[skysummit]

>>From my experience the last 2 years the GFS hasn't done bad once it picks a system up.

But it's been handling handoffs awfully beyond 72 hours. We'll have to see how this plays out IMHO.

Steve

Right. It's been handling well once it's picked storms up, but I don't believe it's picked it up yet. What makes you think the GFS has now picked up on Ernesto?

[Wthrman13]

One thing I'm sure of, there's no LLC near 15.1N/71.4W (extrapolated from NHC's 15Z position of 15.1/71.2). Nothing even remotely looking like low-level clouds rotating there. Do any of you see an LLC west of the convection? That was the point of my original post.

There is a moderate MLC to the northeast near 15.7N/70.5W, but no observations to confirm an LLC. Look at the arc of clouds streaming westward south of the DR. Squalls streaming away to the west don't indicate a significant inflow. I am not saying there is no closed low there, but it may be more broad and weaker than earlier today.

We will have to wait for the plane to see just where the center is. I think it looks less organized than earlier.

I'll have to agree with AFM here. The LLC is almost certainly still there. I can clearly see westerly inflow on the SW side of the convection, and, speeding up the GHCC loop, what looks like NW inflow just to the west of the new convective burst. What likely has happened is that the LLC reformed underneath the convection and is probably located just on the west edge of it. The low-level cloud pattern suggests that the west side of the circulation is elongated from west to east. Obviously we won't know for sure until the recon gets there.

[Bailey1777]

Guys I would give it until Monday to believe the model plots are even close and just focus on what the storm is doing right now. (Everything will change as it has done since this system became a T.D.)

[6SpeedTA95]

I may need to get off this site for a few hours. I am seeing too much crazy talk all of the sudden. I am amazed by how people cling onto these models (which have been performing poorly) as if they were gods. One run of the GFS (that is much different than the previous run) is not going to be the answer to anything.

What are you suggesting that we ignore all the tools given to us to predict what/when/where???

The models shift because variables and conditions are CONSTANTLY changing. I dont recall anyone saying the models were going to nail it and had a history of nailing things down. NO ONE SAID THAT!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

>>From my experience the last 2 years the GFS hasn't done bad once it picks a system up.

But it's been handling handoffs awfully beyond 72 hours. We'll have to see how this plays out IMHO.

Steve

Right. It's been handling well once it's picked storms up, but I don't believe it's picked it up yet. What makes you think the GFS has now picked up on Ernesto?

If you look at the Initinal and 6 hour GFS it has picked it up.

[gatorcane]

>>From my experience the last 2 years the GFS hasn't done bad once it picks a system up.

But it's been handling handoffs awfully beyond 72 hours. We'll have to see how this plays out IMHO.

Steve

Right. It's been handling well once it's picked storms up, but I don't believe it's picked it up yet. What makes you think the GFS has now picked up on Ernesto?

If you look at the Initinal and 6 hour GFS it has picked it up.

Wow I hope it shifts back the other way....the fact that it is even thinking about a Charley-like path now has me nervous.

[x-y-no]

CNN's met Bonnie Schenider just said shear is tearing apart the storm. Just FYI.

But ... but ... but ... all evening long last night the "meteorologist" CNN kept going to (thankfully for him I don't recall his name) kept saying Ernesto was heading into an "extremely low-shear environment."

Actually, you could parse that earlier statement as saying Ernesto would be in a low-shear environment once it's past Jamaica. Quite reasonable. Spoken language is rarely as precise as written.

It's very kind of you to wish to interpret his words to best effect, but itwas very clear he was talking about the coming day. He went on to talk about how Ernesto was forcast to "rapidly strengthen" as he approached Jamaica. Weirdly, he actually got the forecast intensities correct - so how he could reconcile that with a forecast of rapid strengthening is beyond me.

It wasn't until almost a full minute later (an eternity in TV time) that he got to talking about Ernesto's future in the Gulf.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Guys I would give it until Monday to believe the model plots are even close and just focus on what the storm is doing right now. (Everything will change as it has done since this system became a T.D.)

thank you! That is one of the best posts I have heard all day. People are focusing too much on each new run of these poorly-performing models instead of looking at the overall trends and watching what is going on ATM. Tons can change with this strange situation over the next few days...I am sure the models will shift to FL, to TX, to LA and then back again, but they probably won't have a really good idea until Monday.

[Stratosphere747]

Then take your own advice EWG, and just ignore anyone that mentions other scenarios.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I may need to get off this site for a few hours. I am seeing too much crazy talk all of the sudden. I am amazed by how people cling onto these models (which have been performing poorly) as if they were gods. One run of the GFS (that is much different than the previous run) is not going to be the answer to anything.

What are you suggesting that we ignore all the tools given to us to predict what/when/where???

The models shift because variables and conditions are CONSTANTLY changing. I dont recall anyone saying the models were going to nail it and had a history of nailing things down. NO ONE SAID THAT!

well the best tool is probably the trained minds of those down at the NHC, so no do not stop listening to them. As for the models though, yes..I would ignore the models that are, and have been, poorly handling this system. They can't be right if they don't even initialize the system in the right position and at the right strength.

Wait until Monday before really buying into the models. There is still a large spread right now.

[rockyman]

I may need to get off this site for a few hours. I am seeing too much crazy talk all of the sudden. I am amazed by how people cling onto these models (which have been performing poorly) as if they were gods. One run of the GFS (that is much different than the previous run) is not going to be the answer to anything.

Bwahahaha...Thanks for that chuckle.

The trend has definitely been to the east over the last 36 hours...There is no other way to slice it...36 hours ago no one was seriously even considering Florida to be under any type of threat...

[curtadams]

>>From my experience the last 2 years the GFS hasn't done bad once it picks a system up.

Right. It's been handling well once it's picked storms up, but I don't believe it's picked it up yet. What makes you think the GFS has now picked up on Ernesto?

I'm pretty sure it hasn't. That posted run never has Ernesto stronger than a tropical *LOW*. Not even TD-worthy.

[jlauderdal]

I may need to get off this site for a few hours. I am seeing too much crazy talk all of the sudden. I am amazed by how people cling onto these models (which have been performing poorly) as if they were gods. One run of the GFS (that is much different than the previous run) is not going to be the answer to anything.

ok, we will see you back in a few hours, have a good one.

[ConvergenceZone]

I just hope it holds off on strengthening until AFTER it gets past Jamaica....It looks like right now they just expect a potential tropical storm there, but that's going to dump alot of rain there even if it's not a direct hit.

[Wx_Warrior]

I have a strong strong feeling they are getting a better read on this thing...remember how east they thought Rita was going and where it was targeted first? South of Corpus...kept moving models east, east east and east....

When more models are now starting to agree on certain things, I would be concerned for that area. I think La on east will be dealing with some crap this time next weekend.