TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Those model tracks remind me of dennis...But the enviroment is no where near as faverable as with dennis.

The latest cimss shear maps show that the Anticyclone has once again got pushed southeastward away from the LLC. The latest map also shows that the core of the flow of shear is hitting right at it. So that is why that a good part of the western side is now exposed. If the center is not under the MLC then this is likely not strengthing right now.

[Furious George]

Hey, I was just about to mention Charley! Yes, the 102 hr GFS resembles him. Crazy - two days ago I would have never have thought.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _102.shtml

[gatorcane]

PS...new 102 HOURS gfs KEEPS the system intact, despite the crazy right turn over cuba...then moves it back more NW skirting the West coast FL

I think the more interesting thing about the GFS run is that it completely erodes the mid level ridge at 90 hours leaving the storm to go north and maybe even NE before landfall.

Can I say Charley all over again? Well I think there is a chance....but probably not likely what scares me is the fact that other models are bending it now N.....

gosh I am on the edge...I grew up in Tampa Bay - they cannot afford a hit.....

This is borderline rediculous. WHERE is the massive trough to take this to Tampa? I sure don't see one. I see a slight erosion of a ridge that would probably take it to the Panhandle or the Big Bend.

You don't need a massive trough....storm moves between WNW and NW then makes it into the SE GOM then the shortwave trough (does not have to be big) pushes in NNW and then North hitting the Big Bend or West Coast of FL.....

you don't need a hugh trough!

[storms in NC]

I hate to hear that. For one thing to get caught once with your pants down but twice I hope not. But I hope it don't go into the La and Miss line.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

True.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I dont even think A98E is a really dynamic model...its and its friends the BAMMS are in Left field, literally

Here is some info. on the different models:

http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm

[gatorcane]

I'm not saying it WILL hit the west coast of Florida or panhandle...

all I am saying is that we should not be so quick to rule it out....that is all...

I think FL panhandle at this point.....but who knows....

[gopherfan21]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

[SouthFloridawx]

[PTPatrick]

126 GFS has it in Cedar key...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

So if the theory that the GFS/weak system thing allows it too far east to quick, then I suspect GFDL will come out with a little more a Western FL panhandle hit later tonight

[JonathanBelles]

does anyone have a slosh model?

[SouthFloridawx]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I read absolutely nothing in the NHC discussion where they said they were discounting the gfs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2105.shtml

[Bailey1777]

The A98E is a worthless model my point is it is showing the most right path with the way dynamics are set up right now.

[mvtrucking]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I am curious if that is still their opinion's? They have been quiet the last
many pages. I really would like to get their ideas right about now..

[canetracker]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

Totally agree. Still think late Sunday or Monday will be the key. All along the Northern Gulf Coast should prepare right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I read absolutely nothing in the NHC discussion where they said they were discounting the gfs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2105.shtml

Did you even read it?

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.

[Brent]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I read absolutely nothing in the NHC discussion where they said they were discounting the gfs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2105.shtml

Well to be fair:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.

That doesn't make sense and won't happen.

[AJC3]

does anyone have a slosh model?

SLOSH wouldn't be run until the system is closer to land.

[SouthFloridawx]

For the last time, ARE YOU PEOPLE NOT LISTENING TO THE PRO METS!?!?!?!?!?!?

The GFS is WRONG

It has used Incorrect Initializations and is basically plowing Ernesto through a ridge!

I read absolutely nothing in the NHC discussion where they said they were discounting the gfs.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2105.shtml

Well to be fair:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF
BRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS
DUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA.

That doesn't make sense and won't happen.

Well that would indicate that the low level and mid level circulation will decouple. However they did NOT say they were toally discounting the GFS.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

I dont think Fla has anything really to worry about. This is probably just a flop in the models and I am sure they will flip back around the other way or even take it to sea east of fla.