TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[CalmBeforeStorm]

The 00z GFS has the storm on the northern coast of cuba at 42 hours.

[deltadog03]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

[seaswing]

I think the next 24-36 hrs will be very important in determining what direction Ernesto will go and if it survives the Carib.

I believe it will survive the carib.

[ROCK]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

Seems Ernie likes to punch through ridges.....

[ConvergenceZone]

hmm, maybe I'm missing something too. I don't see any more chat on these boards during hurricane season than there's been in the last 2 years since Storm2k has been around...

but if the only time we should post is if we are posting an advisory or warning, that's okay too I guess. I guess I'll just go to the chatroom instead of making a post in the forum from now on, because I never get to posting the advisories before other people do...

[AtlanticWind]

GFS shifts even more left , off se fla coast

[caneman]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

Tell me our beloved GFDL-which I do like to but has it coming off the Western tip of Cuba is anymore right...... Shouldn't we also bash the GFDL?

[seaswing]

GFS shifts even more left , off se fla coast

Link please?

[boca]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

I think its 150 miles too far north, so I don't believe this model at all right now. Meaning Ernesto would have to move NNW from its current position which its not. Its moving 300° heading.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

Why not? The actual track has been on the right side right along.

[Bolebuns]

I agree with Caneman.

Everybody here is not a pro met, and I learn a great deal reading all (most) posts.

Perhaps we could lighten up a little and be thrilled, as I am, that Strorm2k has been so successful.

On topic, can anybody post some data that shows which parts of the the country are most vunerable during various parts of the year. For example, what time of the year, statistically speaking, would give Texas, LA, Florida, etc, the greatest chance for a hit? How does Ernie fit these patterns?


Thanks

[jasons2k]

Jschlitz...

Check a few threads down. There is a small disco about the WRF.

Thank you Stratos! I had been locked on this thread for so long I failed to look at the main page

Thanks!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

I think its 150 miles too far north, so I don't believe this model at all right now. Meaning Ernesto would have to move NNW from its current position which its not. Its moving 300° heading.

It hasn't moved 300 degrees since 5:00 PM

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[ConvergenceZone]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

I think its 150 miles too far north, so I don't believe this model at all right now. Meaning Ernesto would have to move NNW from its current position which its not. Its moving 300° heading.

I agree, that model is on serious crack, lol...I remember Derek or one of the other Mets saying that you can pretty much throw that one out the window, that the GFS is rarely right in these situations. I guess anything can happen..... but highly unlikely. Now if MOST of the other dynamic models shift in that direction, then we need to pay attention, but for now, it's just good entertainment

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _072.shtml

[deltadog03]

hey everyone,
For those GFS lovers tell me this is gonna be right??

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _042.shtml

I think its 150 miles too far north, so I don't believe this model at all right now. Meaning Ernesto would have to move NNW from its current position which its not. Its moving 300° heading.

It hasn't moved 300 degrees since 5:00 PM

your right!!! Its been moving around 285 or so...

[Recurve]

NHC cone shows Ernesto could cross Cuba and track NW into the Keys, and that wouldn't be very far off in time now. We may have to be moving boats, putting up shutters and generally getting ready tomorrow.

So I'm wondering if anyone wants to estimate the ridge strength, steering, and chance of a track on the right side of the NHC forecast? If this gets across Cuba, what is the farthest east track it could take? Looks like Key West has to prepare, but not sure about us 100 miles farther north in the Upper Keys. Could the track be as much NW as 310-315 degrees?

BTW, one SF met tonight showed a risk assessment of 5 for key west, 4 for middle keys and 2 for upper keys on a scale of 10.

[dwg71]

He seems to be getting very close to Haiti, it seems to be tracking right for easter side, will this have any effects on the strength of the system if, and I said IF he does in fact cross Haiti?

[deltadog03]

Recurve if you truley want an honest answer.....
IMO....I think that you should watch it but, i truely feel like you guys will be ok. Remember************ most of these tropical models have GFS data in them. Someone asked should we bash the GFDL...the answer is NO!! its not the fault of that its the GFS bad data or bad model fault. Pay attention to the GFDN and the CONU.