Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[hawkeh]

[robbielyn]

ernesto fought the good fight and is now on his death bed

anyone else think the nhc and promets would not be politically correct to call this yet, but they are all breathing a bigger sigh of releif as this continues

to weaken by the hour

How do you reconcile that with convection refiring as per the last two sat frames ?

Because if you look at the cuban radar on page 7 you will see how close the blob is to cuba, not enough time to strengthen much then it gets raked over the mountains in cuba. Ouch maybe a depression I don't know. Maybe it can regenerate in the fl straits.

[tgenius]

Gitmo radar isn't working, no recon yet, no sats due to eclipse.. heck we're no better off at this moment then 2000 yrs ago

[Normandy]

Looking at the cuban radar i am not impressed....ill stick with a TD by tom

[Brent]

Looking at the cuban radar i am not impressed....ill stick with a TD by tom

Since this blob has no banding I'm leaning towards that, but nothing would surprise me. I could see either an open wave or a hurricane when I wake up.

[BUD]

It looks like its going to miss cuba.Looks like a NNW movement

[tgenius]

Looking at the cuban radar i am not impressed....ill stick with a TD by tom

Cuban radar last updated 345z/1145pm, before the major convection fired...

[CronkPSU]

hard to look at that 4:01 picture and think this storm will be dead by morning...sorry I just don't see it

[cpdaman]

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

bud check out this radar south of cuba u can see his center is already west of the eastern tip can't miss unless it were to go ne

[Droop12]

You see that little blob and think to yourself, is it even worth staying up to watch?

[Recurve]

Now looking at the rainbow loop, I'm wondering if this..this stupid storm just jumped into the Windward Pass.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rb.html

[Hurrilurker]

The windfield is already starting to interact with Cuba and still is from Hispaniola. I think it will strengthen slightly overnight but not have enough run to get cranking again. I'll be very surprised if it's any more than a Cat 1 when it hits Florida. I hope they are prepared for some flooding there though.

Question: what are the chances it cuts across the Florida peninsula and moves up the coast, regaining strength from the Gulf Stream?

[TexasSam]

Gitmo radar isn't working, no recon yet, no sats due to eclipse.. heck we're no better off at this moment then 2000 yrs ago

https://detweb.weather.navy.mil/gtmo/

At times it can take a few minutes to load.
You have to enter from the home page the first time, then say OK to the box that pops up. Then click "radar" on the left, then "base" then give it a few min to load the loop. seems that the so called center is in range now.[/url]

[cpdaman]

based on its current position 19 n 74.8 (from cuban radar) and where the center would be projected and re-emerge of the cuban coast following it's current heading i conclude it is about

5 hours from south east cuba and it appears once the storm clears about 21.2 north latitude it will be over the fl. straits (could be 20.5 NORTH if ernesto follows a nnw heading and about 21.5 on a NW heading)

based on this info i belevie the system will cross cuba (use this radar http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif)

around 5 am and get back over the atlantic by 1 pm or within an hour . anyone have any thoughts.



maybe cuba wont have enough time to deliver the knock out punch ( i think ernesto has to continue develop more convection right now and that his life depends on it)

[Aquawind]

I think noon sounds generous at the current speed. I agree entirely on the convection requirement.. Naked swirl over land go bye bye..

[boca]

I think Ernie will join Chris tomorrow in a open wave game

[btangy]

GFS is showing a potentially very serious flood situation, particularly for N Carolina as high pressure blocks Ernesto from accelerating NEward.

[TexasSam]

from: Guantanamo Bay Radar

[Aquawind]

I need to find how to do the small click image to the full size...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=86718

[SouthFloridawx]

New CMC into south florida also.