TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #6

[THead]

Do you think that he would have ramped up by now?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it takes quite some time for the effects to be seen. Usually a few hours later, at least that's how I recall it, and explains why Ernesto was strengthening as it was first beginning to go into Cuba, way back when.

That's why it's also dangerous that once this hits Florida, it may still be increasing in intensity

Yes, whatever ernie is by the time he makes landfall, there's a huge difference between a weakening storm making landfall and a strengthening one. One of the many factors not taken into account by the Saffir-Simpson scale.


BTW, didn't Irene around 2000 have nearly the same track as is forecast for ernie..........at least the track into florida.

[caneman]

KEy West Radar. Definitely gonna hoit the West coast now

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[tracyswfla]

KEy West Radar. Definitely gonna hoit the West coast now

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

With all due respect, how can you say that?

[storms in NC]

I think he will go up to TS winds today he is over water and the more he moves away from land the more he will fire up and get his stuff together. Over all he didn't lose every thing over land. He still has spunk. He will be a top TS by 11 PM tonigh IMHO

[robbielyn]

Don't know how important, but the 8am dropped NW speed from 14 to 13... don't know if 1mph is going to be a big deal, or is it? (Perhaps the beginning of a trend?

8 AM is still at 14 mph
But I am a bit suprised that the NHC still has it NW, it moved from 5 am 0.2 N and 0.4 west.

Also, recon and EYW radar seem to indicate WNW if not just north of west movement.

By the way, if my eyesight is correct the 5 am track had it passing 80 W at 24 North

Morning Josh, I have a question, I am watching a watervapor and the ull in the bay of campeche seems to be pushing back albeit slightly the trough do you think that ull can slow the trough some and keep it from advancing more east? Sorry I am a novice but understand it if it is explained to me. Thank you I know how busy you are today. Robbielyn

[caneman]

KEy West Radar. Definitely gonna hoit the West coast now

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

With all due respect, how can you say that?

Umm. it looks to already be at 80. Still moving West and any NW motion will put it in the Gulf. It would have to stop NOW! and go NNE to hit Miami

[rnbaida]

it will be a real shock if it heads to the gulf,.... people will go crazy

[tracyswfla]

KEy West Radar. Definitely gonna hoit the West coast now

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

With all due respect, how can you say that?

Umm. it looks to already be at 80. Still moving West and any NW motion will put it in the Gulf. It would have to stop NOW! and go NNE to hit Miami

Sorry if I came off as challenging you. Honestly just wanted your thoughts on it.

[storms in NC]

You can't go by the Radar. I wish a pro met would come in and tell you why. I was told that last year. If they would ring in here it would help you understand why not to use Radar.

[caneman]

KEy West Radar. Definitely gonna hoit the West coast now

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

With all due respect, how can you say that?

Umm. it looks to already be at 80. Still moving West and any NW motion will put it in the Gulf. It would have to stop NOW! and go NNE to hit Miami

Sorry if I came off as challenging you. Honestly just wanted your thoughts on it.

No prob. In my opinion we will see watch as far North as Tampa at 11.

[gtalum]

How can you spot the center. I simply can't tell.

[tgenius]

Yep, its going straight west now isn't it? Give it a few hours, if you see that west movement by 2pm, then it might have some credibility...

[Normandy]

KEy West Radar. Definitely gonna hoit the West coast now

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

With all due respect, how can you say that?

Umm. it looks to already be at 80. Still moving West and any NW motion will put it in the Gulf. It would have to stop NOW! and go NNE to hit Miami

??????
Not correct
It would have to move a hair west of Due north....are u seeing the center correctly?

[rnbaida]

so will it miss miami?

[DESTRUCTION5]

KEy West Radar. Definitely gonna hoit the West coast now

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

With all due respect, how can you say that?

Umm. it looks to already be at 80. Still moving West and any NW motion will put it in the Gulf. It would have to stop NOW! and go NNE to hit Miami

Not wst of miami yet..

[Bane]

One thing that worries me about Ernesto is his size....hes small and small systems can ramp up FAST....see what Ernesto did south of Haiti.

Do you think that he would have ramped up by now?

as others have already said, it is still too cloe to land to intensify quickly.

[tgenius]

Long Range Radar CANNOT be used to dictate Center of Circ accurately...

[gtalum]

No prob. In my opinion we will see watch as far North as Tampa at 11.

Of that I have no doubt. Even on the NHC's current track, they'd probably put up watches to Tampa by tonight, IMHO.

[ericinmia]

You can't go by the Radar. I wish a pro met would come in and tell you why. I was told that last year. If they would ring in here it would help you understand why not to use Radar.

You cant use it to see an llc... You can see a swirl but if the llc and mlc and such are not stacked vertically then you can't. So a well defined non sheared hurrican/strong Ts... sure its fine. But a weak ts... no.

[cinlfla]

If it continues going west and comes in on the west side of Florida will that have much affect on the intensity before landfall.