TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[GulfHills]

Yeah, we do... a few times a year.

I'll vouch for that....I live in Tallahassee.

[Sanibel]

The reason I think it could go east of track is because the cirrus and outer edge moved over us a few hours ago, but since then it has stopped and you can see a clear edge to the system that hasn't gone any further west. That would suggest a border that is turning the storm.

[storms in NC]

I know this was this Morning but here it is anyway

FXUS62 KMHX 290840
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
440 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL TODAY. 850 MB TEMPS REACH 20C WITH 1000/500 THKNS AOA 5800
WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S (AND PERHAPS A FEW
ISOLD UPPER 90S). COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ISSUE BRIEF SPS FOR THIS. PROSPECTS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOK
VERY SMALL AND I HAVE SCALED BACK POPS/WX TO ISOLD THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR DEEP INLAND LOCATIONS. UPPER HIGH STILL IN CONTROL
WITH SUBSIDENCE PRECLUDING DEEP CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT OVER
THE MID ATLC WILL STALL AS A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES OF THE ATLC COAST
THIS EVENING.

AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SLOWLY
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PW INCREASE TO OVER 2" WITH ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE
MOISTENING BY 12Z. POS ONLY INCREASED TO 30% INLAND AND 20% THOUGH
AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK AS MID LEVEL TROUGH STALLS OVER THE MIDWEST.

ON WED THE MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT EAST WHILE THE SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO ESTRN NC. ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MOVES
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA PRODUCING
DEEP ASCENT ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NC. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
OCCUR WITH NORTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE FRONT HAVING THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS
WILL SPREAD SOUTH WED NIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM ERNESTRO GETS
ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW OVER THE SE COAST.

FORECAST ON THU HINGES ON EVENTUAL TRACKSPEEDD/INTENSITY OF
ERNESTO. GFS/GFDL BRING THE STORM INTO SOUTHERN SC FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH IS UNUSUAL. ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION IN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT
COULD BRING IN TO CAPE FEAR OR CAPE LOOKOUT. THE CMC AND UKMET
HAVE A SOLN FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS/GFDL SO NC IS NOT OUT OF THE
WOODS YET. EVEN WITH THE NHC TRACK...THE STORM WILL MOVE SLOW
ENOUGH AND INTERACT WITH THE SFC FRONT AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO
PRODUCE STRONG ASCENT OF THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. PW ARE FORECAST IN
EXCESS OF 2.5". THUS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAIN FALL THU-FRI. I WILL ISSUE ESF STATEMENT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR OVER 5" OF RAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

has anyone else noticed tha the front is STILL in Texas and hasn't even reach the coast yet? Wouldn't this need to be much closer to reflect Ernest to the NE in another 12 hours?

[Evil Jeremy]

i think that the new advisory pressure was based only on one reading, one which also showed 45KT winds!

[SouthFloridawx]

A good close up loop of Ernesto.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[GaryOBX]

I don't think I've seen anybody mention the 12z GFS. In 72 hours, the GFS takes the storm into the NC/SC border, then over the Delmarva.

12z GFS

If you'll recall, the 06z GFS had Ernesto making a 2nd landfall near the SC/GA border.

06z GFS

Do you think all the models will starting migrating back to the East? I know the UK model is east as well.

[storms in NC]

Is it me or it is growing

[THead]

Why aren't the pressures dropping its no longer along the Cuban coast and the storm is in 86°f water temps.Storm systems this year just can't get their act together

Remember Rita last year in the same area, everyone thought she was going to bomb there, but didn't really do squat til she got into the Gulf. I know, every storm is different, just something I remember from last year.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Who said this is not going to Miami? Welcome to Miami!

Looking at radar: Yes radar! Is this thing starting to turn N? Or am I seeing the reflection of the radar? Hard to tell w/o an eye. This better go W soon to get into the Gulf. Come on you can do Ernesto!

[TampaFl]

anybody have a map of where the Gulf stream is?

[Sanibel]

Is it me or it is growing

I think it's trying to do a gear change but doesn't have room.

[curtadams]

Here's a radar with 1 deg lat/lon lines. Center at 1813Z 24.15N/80.05W
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto61.gif

That's an ULC and we've seen several ULCs get generated from the LLC and then blown off. It might not even be attached to the LLC - hard to tell - and it's certainly displaced.

Are you trying to say that is a displaced vortice

Is that a technical term? Otherwise I'd say yes.
IMO:
LLC where recon has it. Stable but rather broad
MLC (low clouds) nearby. Possibly sheared off a bit but attached.
ULC (color IR and long-range rader): multiple centers detached from the LLC/MLC complex

That connected system keeps generating deep convection - but the deep convection does NOT remain attached and keeps getting blown off. Radar images are showing that upper level deep convection, and it shows multiple centers because there are, at that level - one every time the deep convection gets blown off.

If the deep convection catches I expect this to strengthen substantially and veer northward (based on current UL motion) I think that's unlikely, because shear - to me - appears to be worsening. But not impossible. If it doesn't catch I expect exactly the NHC forecast.

[Sanibel]

My eye keeps seeing an abrupt N turn and slow down in an attempt to stay offshore up the coast.

[TampaFl]

On miami radar what appears to be the center is just east of the forecasted track, still moving NW. No indication of that north turn. Thoughts & comments welcome.


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

[feederband]

Who said this is not going to Miami? Welcome to Miami!

Looking at radar: Yes radar! Is this thing starting to turn N? Or am I seeing the reflection of the radar? Hard to tell w/o an eye. This better go W soon to get into the Gulf. Come on you can do Ernesto!

To me radar show keys...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Sanibel]

Your own radar loop shows an in-hooking central band going right of your track line.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

On miami radar what appears to be the center is just east of the forecasted track, still moving NW. No indication of that north turn. Thoughts & comments welcome.


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

Are you sure that little bit to the tracks right is not the center? If it is you can see the northward turn. Anyone with radar and lat/long lines?

[storms in NC]

My eye keeps seeing an abrupt N turn and slow down in an attempt to stay offshore up the coast.

Looks north to me but what do I know.I don't think I will not get any thing but some rain.

[Toadstool]

Plantation (Ft. Lauderdale) getting gusty... no rain yet, but soon!

[img=http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5995/ernesto1po7.th.jpg]