TD Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #8

[stormtruth]

I see where thast forming and if you look at it, its moving due north...

That is moving north but the NHC still says NW.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND REACHING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MIDNIGHT.

But they must be expecting a N turn very soon.

[storms in NC]

It has been moveing more NNW for the last few hours. This make me think it will not stay over Fla long. By the Am it will be back over water. AM I mean in daylight not 12AM

[Trugunzn]

Looks likeit just reformed a new center farthur south. Check out how the spirel just south of key largo dies and a new one appears farthur south.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... ightning=0

[tgenius]

Here's the bit I don't get, what will the center do for Miami when it comes onshore? Will it actually bring rain/wind with it?

[WxGuy1]

Even though in every storm we have to prepare for the worse, the common people take every storm very serious when they prepare and expect severe conditions every time they're told to prepare. The effects in the public post-Ernesto could be worse than during Ernesto since these persons may become discouraged to prepare for the next storm and the next storm could be a big one.

We all know these predictions are not easy to make, but most of the public doesn't understand this.

That's a threat with every false alarm. Same goes for tornado warnings (which have a false alarm rate of about 75%, meaning that 3 out of every 4 tornado warnings, on average, are non-events!). Fortunately, tornado warnings required about 45 minutes of attention for those involved (seeking information and proper shelter), compared to what can be days for hurricane warnings. You can certainly bet that the NHC is well aware of this, and they don't go about tossing out warnings carelessly. There are a lot of non-meteorological, outside political pressures that come into play... It's better to have a few false alarms than to have a single missed event (unwarned storm comes blazing onto shore). People are inconvenienced and perhaps become more complacent with false alarms, but Congress comes a-knocking if you miss an event! There's a lot of liability involved...

I blame the media most of the time for this. If they didn't spend so much dang time hyping these things to pieces we'd probably be better off. It seems that there's always a big booming icon and voice for "Ernesto, the beast of death". Who cares how many crews you have out there? The local stations I have a little more respect for, since I assume most folks get their information from local stations before big national news networks (CNN, MSNBC, FoxNews, namely). I think local news networks are in a better position to directly encourage the involved people to evacuate, prepare emergency supplies, etc. Given the relatively small percentage of cable news network viewers who are going to be affected by any particular storm, the motivation seems to be different. Seriously... But hey, folks like extreme weather -- it's exciting and something different from the norm. I'd even venture to say that many people IN hurricane zones like storms as strong as they can be without causing damage to their house / place of business or too much inconvience. But hey, as long as we keep watching the cable news networks for hurricane coverage, they'll continue providing saturated and over-hyped coverage.

P.s> - can someone fix the enormously long link in the post above this one? Thanks!

[Bgator]

Hmmm..Im getting some thunder here, arent thunderstorms rare in TS?

[gatorcane]

big problems guys....center is actually on the eastern side of the NHC guidance (I hope it doesn't make it into the Atlantic anytime-soon)..thunderstorms and showers are blowing up now - looking alot better....

I'm getting ready to receive some big-time squalls in about 1-2 hours.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[huricanwatcher]

cross that out.. that wasnt nice

[tgenius]

big problems guys....center is actually on the eastern side of the NHC guidance (I hope it doesn't make it into the Atlantic anytime-soon)..thunderstorms and showers are blowing up now - looking alot better....

I'm getting ready to receive some big-time squalls in about 1-2 hours.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Do you think they will make it to Miami?

I too am Hearing Thunder as well...

[Trugunzn]

Steve Lyons said the TS on pulled the center down a bit. A little longer over water. Exactly what i thought

[tgenius]

Trugunzn-what do you think I should expect in Miami for rest of the evening?

[Bane]

Hmmm..Im getting some thunder here, arent thunderstorms rare in TS?

No, they are very common in tropical systems. You may not see cloud-to-ground lightning very often, though.

[Bgator]

Someone told me that the reason wind is minimmal right now over land is its not reaching the surface, he also said that once it hits land teh winds should mix down is this true?and i think that new center may become more dominant, giving it abou 2-3 hours over water and its moving north...anyoen agree?

[jpigott]

looks like that new band south of key largo is wrapping itself around and Ernesto may have bought himself a few more hours over water

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Nimbus]

Big burst of convection over the keys, is that the center reforming?

[theworld]

[gatorcane]

Someone told me that the reason wind is minimmal right now over land is its not reaching the surface, he also said that once it hits land teh winds should mix down is this true?and i think that new center may become more dominant, giving it abou 2-3 hours over water and its moving north...anyoen agree?

I do I think there is alot of energy mustered up with Ernesto - typically when these systems interact with land, some weird things can happen with the winds - obviously not catastrophic but I wouldn't be surprised to see some gusts up to 60mph+

[Trugunzn]

Big burst of convection over the keys, is that the center reforming?

It did furthur south.

[Evil Jeremy]

there are alot of new burst going on, prepare for major flooding tonight.

[Bella]

For what it's worth....nice, fairly intense t-storm here in Tampa right now. From looking at radar, it's just a tiny one, though.