TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[wxman57]

My projected landfall is near 10pm EDT on the NC coast near 33.9N/78.4W. Max winds probably 75-80 mph in small areas offshore. I expect some 60-70 mph winds on the beaches south of Wilmington.

[carve]

I cannot really feel sorry for anyone in NC/SC who dismissed "E" and now may not have a chance to make proper preparations...they have been in the CONE for three days now and should have at least taken some level of personal responsibility for the "what ifs" such as what is happening now...a stronger TS/minimal cane.

it's like the poor people south of us who dealt with Charley...acting all surprised that a storm dare change paths a few hours prior to landfall and get stronger.

good luck to those in the path....but do not whine and moan about it, you had fair notice that SOMETHING was coming.

Do not moan or whine...these people probably listened to the NHC who said this wouldn't get this strong again.Not an attitude to take with possible life or death situation!!

[Tampa_God]

all_we_know_is_FALLING,

Need any condiments with that, westmoon?

Jk.. Haha..

No but some lights would be nice, Just lost the power as the tail of this is comming off the GOM

You lost power? That sucks

[bjackrian]

I'm not trying to bash the NHC as I believe they've done a good job of saying that we don't know what will happen and keeping NC/SC in a TS Watch for the last few days.

What I don't understand, though, is why in the Public Advisory, they say, "No significant strengthening is expected prior to landfall," when (a) the forecast calls for 10 kts of strengthening, and (b) the discussion says, "ERNESTO HAS ABOUT 10 ADDITIONAL HOURS OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD." It's as though two different people locked in separate rooms wrote the PA and the Forecast/Discussion...

The only explanation I can come up with is that they don't consider 10 kts significant, but why didn't they say "some slight additional strengthening is possible prior to landfall and there is a possibility Errnesto could become a hurricane prior to landfall." That would seem to be more inline with what their discussion says.

[Raebie]

Can we start a separate "why the NHC sucks/doesn't suck" thread"?

[artist]

Oh by the way, I believe your overreacting, I know a few folks from the NHC and have personally talked to them. I know how hard it is to forecast storms such as these, but I just dont get why there arent warnings out?

If you truly did - then you would know they are doing everything in their power to access the situation and put up the proper warnings, watches, etc. There are warnings - a tropical storm warning with a hurricane watch - exactly where it is now. Don't sit there and second guess those at the NHC. The take their job seriously, as you should know,if you talk to them. No - I am not over reacting - possibly you are?

[westmoon]

Tampa_God,

You lost power? That sucks

Yeah the day after is proving to be worse than the day of

[NCgreenhead]

Oh by the way, I believe your overreacting, I know a few folks from the NHC and have personally talked to them. I know how hard it is to forecast storms such as these, but I just dont get why there arent warnings out?

I agree they should have put a hurricane watch up at 5am this morning and it should have been changed to a warning at the 11am. Bottom line is that hurricane conditions seem very likely at this time. Also another thing that kills me is when this thing was a little ole TD coming off Cuba they issued a hurricane watch for florida and it took them until a borderline hurricane is 10-12 hours out to issue a WATCH for NC. For those saying do not come down on the NHC all I can say is they did not forecast it right I understand it is a difficult thing to do but you cant tell me that at 5am when this thing had already reached the strength they had forecast at landfall (18 hrs out ) that they did not see the possibilty of a hurricane at landfall and if they are going to issue a watch for south florida with a weak TD/TS coming off of cuba then why not do the same for NC?????

If they do not put a warning out soon then they will have to issue a warning within 12 HRS of landfall that is a huge miss in my book by the NHC.

[Droop12]

Oh by the way, I believe your overreacting, I know a few folks from the NHC and have personally talked to them. I know how hard it is to forecast storms such as these, but I just dont get why there arent warnings out?

If you truly did - then you would know they are doing everything in their power to access the situation and put up the proper warnings, watches, etc. There are warnings - a tropical storm warning with a hurricane watch - exactly where it is now. Don't sit there and second guess those at the NHC. The take their job seriously, as you should know,if you talk to them. No - I am not over reacting - possibly you are?

Nope, Im calm as can be, you came in here on your high pedastal and started ranting and raving. I know there doing there best at the NHC, dont get me wrong. Just seems a warning would be the best bet at a time like this. Thats called an opinion, my opinion. Dont bash me cause yours is different then mine alright?

[shaggy]

can we please get back to talking about sat pics and radars please this thread is for people to get storm information not rant about a organization they cant control which makes their rants useless......

starting to see some really deep storms developing on the south side of the convection again and this is a sustained blow up which makes intensification much more likely if we start to see pressure drops soon.I expect this to be gaining strength all the way to the coastline and its a good thing this one is moving so fast if it was moving say 10mph we could really be in trouble but hes closing the distance nicley.

[Bane]

enough with the nhc bashing on this thread already. take it somewhere else. we have a strengthening tropical system closing in on the carolina coast. stick to the topic.

[Raebie]

OK, let's not start a new thread. Wake me when the NHC debate is over. Sheesh.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Tampa_God,

You lost power? That sucks

Yeah the day after is proving to be worse than the day of

Wow, you'd never think that looking at KTPA's obs, with winds only calm to 8 mph since daybreak:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KTPA.html

[westmoon]

Windsurfer_NYC,

http://www.tbo.com/weather/radar/community/citrushernando.htm

Wind from the west is driving the rain under the door at my office.

[Rainband]

RESPECT. Everyone take a break and re-read the forum Rules

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87190

[artist]

they have issued a watch - that means it could become one, but currently is not thought to go over 73 mph right now.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/HAW2/english/fo ... ings.shtml

[bjackrian]

starting to see some really deep storms developing on the south side of the convection again and this is a sustained blow up which makes intensification much more likely if we start to see pressure drops soon.I expect this to be gaining strength all the way to the coastline and its a good thing this one is moving so fast if it was moving say 10mph we could really be in trouble but hes closing the distance nicley.

That is an impressive blow up on the south/southeast side. But it's obscuring the eye I thought I was starting to see on the visible imagery:

[Jim Cantore]

This might change on the 2pm advisory, If recon finds a Hurricane though they'll issue a special advisory I'm sure.

[dgparent]

Is skeetobite weather gone ? I wanted a map of Ernie's path imposed on a map of NC to see what towns etc it is going over.

[shaggy]

i am still waiting for an update from my local NWS office to see what kind of winds i can expect but right now they are not saying much which is surprising seeing the track has it about 30 miles to my west still as a TS tomorrow morning.If it gets any stronger then i would suspect that my area may also see a increase in potential winds.