Tropical Storm Gordon,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm2.html

Looking at the 500mb steering flow it looks like highs have built in on both sides of Florence. I'm not sure why ttis is taking a sw movement. But, it may have to do with the powerful ridge on top of it.

[Zardoz]

Is it about to get severely sheared? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

And how about the remnants of "the sleeper" down there at 10N 55W? Is that having any effect on 93L's movement?

[HURAKAN]

10/1145 UTC 20.2N 52.7W T1.5/1.5 93L

[SouthFloridawx]

Is it about to get severely sheared? :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

And how about the remnants of "the sleeper" down there at 10N 55W? Is that having any effect on 93L's movement?

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html
That TUTT low is fairly far off to the northeast of the system. The only shear it's getting is from Flo.

[TheRingo]

seems like the outflow from florence has been pushing it south but once flo pushes further north that high could build back in around and keep the system going west for a little.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

[Sanibel]

You can see the surface flow "pinched" up into the recurve flow behind Florence. I'm surprised it hasn't followed right behind Florence by now.

[StrongWind]

You can see the surface flow "pinched" up into the recurve flow behind Florence. I'm surprised it hasn't followed right behind Florence by now.

I think it is now. Looks like the southward movement of the convection blob has ended and is going due west with maybe even a NNW jog on the last frame.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Noah]

CAn someone tell me if florida needs to watch this? Im on the west coast.

On this board you will be much better off if you try to figure out for yourself whether it's a threat to you or not.

There are a lot of opinions that may or may not mean anything. Gather the info and make your own decision.

Hmm..Never been told that before on this board..maybe your right anyhow...... as noone has really said much to my question.

Im getting tired of watching the weather this summer too.

Glad there has been no real threats to this point for my area.

Time to move on to other hobbies.

[wjs3]

Maybe the best answer is: It's too soon to know if you should watch out or not. The thing is a minor tropical disturbance, with little organization at this time. Models are of little use until a really solid vortex gets going. Even then, since you've been watching, it can be maddening to foretell the precise track and strength of a tropical cyclone.

So, you should do what you are doing. Watch. Don't write it off, don't worry about it...it's a long way away, and while any of us could try to forecast where it's going, we could not with any kind of reliable precision tell you whether Florida, the Gulf, the Carolinas, or anyone has to worry or not yet.

Check back in a few days. We'll know more then.

[CrazyC83]

Florida watch this? I doubt it. It will likely run east of Florence.

[Noah]

Maybe the best answer is: It's too soon to know if you should watch out or not. The thing is a minor tropical disturbance, with little organization at this time. Models are of little use until a really solid vortex gets going. Even then, since you've been watching, it can be maddening to foretell the precise track and strength of a tropical cyclone.

So, you should do what you are doing. Watch. Don't write it off, don't worry about it...it's a long way away, and while any of us could try to forecast where it's going, we could not with any kind of reliable precision tell you whether Florida, the Gulf, the Carolinas, or anyone has to worry or not yet.

Check back in a few days. We'll know more then.

Thanks kindly!

[GeneratorPower]

The latest satellite loops continue to indicate a round area of convection that is holding its own while expanding in size somewhat.


The blob is over 300mi across.

[Thunder44]

Dvorak Estimates remain the same:

10/1745 UTC 20.4N 53.3W T1.5/1.5 93L

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060910 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060910 1800 060911 0600 060911 1800 060912 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.5N 54.0W 21.1N 55.8W 21.8N 57.6W 22.5N 59.2W
BAMM 20.5N 54.0W 21.2N 55.8W 22.2N 57.7W 23.4N 59.3W
A98E 20.5N 54.0W 20.2N 55.9W 20.6N 57.8W 21.2N 59.5W
LBAR 20.5N 54.0W 20.6N 55.8W 21.2N 57.6W 21.9N 59.1W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060912 1800 060913 1800 060914 1800 060915 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.5N 60.6W 26.1N 63.4W 29.0N 65.5W 32.6N 65.4W
BAMM 25.0N 60.7W 28.7N 62.3W 31.9N 62.4W 35.0N 60.9W
A98E 21.7N 60.8W 23.8N 64.0W 26.1N 66.7W 30.2N 67.5W
LBAR 23.0N 60.3W 26.8N 62.3W 30.7N 62.3W 33.9N 58.6W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 52KTS 52KTS
DSHP 38KTS 49KTS 52KTS 52KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.5N LONCUR = 54.0W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 21.1N LONM12 = 52.2W DIRM12 = 244DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.6N LONM24 = 50.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[wjs3]

Maybe the best answer is: It's too soon to know if you should watch out or not. The thing is a minor tropical disturbance, with little organization at this time. Models are of little use until a really solid vortex gets going. Even then, since you've been watching, it can be maddening to foretell the precise track and strength of a tropical cyclone.

So, you should do what you are doing. Watch. Don't write it off, don't worry about it...it's a long way away, and while any of us could try to forecast where it's going, we could not with any kind of reliable precision tell you whether Florida, the Gulf, the Carolinas, or anyone has to worry or not yet.

Check back in a few days. We'll know more then.

Thanks kindly!

You're welcome. Don't give up weather watching as a hobby!

[txwatcher91]

Is it me or does 93L have a rotation to it? It looks like it could have a LLC IMO.

[Sanibel]

This system appears to be growing.

[Thunder44]

This system appears to be growing.

Yes, this system appears to developing further this afternoon as Florence increases it distance away from it. Will not be suprised to see this become a TD by tomorrow.

[txwatcher91]

This system appears to be growing.

Yes, this system appears to developing further this afternoon as Florence increases it distance away from it. Will not be suprised to see this become a TD by tomorrow.

Where would it go if it developed?

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB thinks this will be in the SE bahamas later this week.