Akash and Gonu thread

[WindRunner]

18z track from JTWC puts it at 90kts (certainly over that by now though), peaking at 105 kts in the near future and hitting Oman as a mid/high Cat 1 . . . could be interesting should that actually verify, but we must remember that these things always fall apart real quick as they near the coast of the Arabian Peninsula . . .

[HURAKAN]

Power is something Gonu knows about.

[Chacor]

210
FKIN20 VIDP 032229

TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20070603/1800Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI.
TC: GONU
NR: 06


PSN: N1800 E06600
MOV: NW08KT
C: 980HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT GUSTING TO 75KT


FCST PSN+12HRS: 040600 N1830 E06530
MAX WIND+12HRS: 80KT
FCST PSN+18HRS: 041200 N1900 E06500
MAX WIND+18HRS: 85KT
FCST PSN+24HRS: 041200 N1930 E06430
MAX WIND+24HRS: 90KT


NEXT MSG: 20070604/0000Z

MSG OVER ????/

[HurricaneRobert]

115 knots and 927 mb! It's a Category 4 now.

[CrazyC83]

115 knots and 927 mb! It's a Category 4 now.

115 and 927? Those don't seem to add up well. 115 knots is typically more like 943 mb.

[windstorm99]

Incredible view of Gonu from RAMMB...

[Coredesat]

Ambient pressures in this region are lower than they are in the Atlantic, much like in the NW Pacific.

[HURAKAN]

115 knots and 927 mb! It's a Category 4 now.

115 and 927? Those don't seem to add up well. 115 knots is typically more like 943 mb.

That's compared to a Atlantic cyclone of the same intensity. Pressure-wind relationship is different in the Indian and Pacific Ocean.

[wxmann_91]

FWIW, Gonu is only the third Cat 4 in the Arabian Sea in the past 50 years. (I looked thru the Unisys archives)

EDIT: correction, third Cat 3 or higher. This is the first Cat 4.

[Cyclenall]

I swear, more tropical cyclones rapidly stregnthen then stregnthen at a normal rate in this basin...

Gonu really pulled off some RI today and the eye is tiny. I wonder if that track will actually occur because I haven't personally seen a TC hit there yet.

[HurricaneRobert]

It was just a tropical storm this morning. Then the dreaded pinhole eye appeared and it blew up. Amazing.

[wxmann_91]

Incredible view of Gonu from RAMMB...

[img][/img]

Cool image! Thanks for posting!

BTW, I went sleuthing and found the website it came from...
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=IO022007

I remember having that in my favorites before. But then, after the C drive was erased, the favorites were inadvertantly erased as well, so I lost the link that that site.

[windstorm99]

Incredible view of Gonu from RAMMB...

[img][/img]

Cool image! Thanks for posting!

BTW, I went sleuthing and found the website it came from...
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=IO022007

I remember having that in my favorites before. But then, after the C drive was erased, the favorites were inadvertantly erased as well, so I lost the link that that site.

No problem...

I posted the link to the website on storm2k early today.

[Ptarmigan]

North Indian Ocean Basin is not quite active, but it produces some very strong hurricanes that have killed many in South Asia. Indian Ocean tropical cyclones were not monitored as much. I would not be surprised that a Cat. 3 tropical cyclone has formed in the Arabian Sea more often, but went unrecorded. I notice Gonu might make landfall as a tropical cyclone or equivalent as a Category 1 hurricane on Oman. I wonder if an Indian Ocean tropical cyclone has made landfall on the Arabian Peninsula before as a hurricane of Category 1 or greater. I know the dry air kills it.

[Ptarmigan]

Incredible view of Gonu from RAMMB...

Looks impressive.

[Ptarmigan]

115 and 927? Those don't seem to add up well. 115 knots is typically more like 943 mb.

I notice Indian Ocean tropical cyclones are smaller than the ones in NW Pacific and Atlantic.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wonder if this can go more northward in get into the gulf of Arabia? That would be interesting. I don't think it has happen.

[Derek Ortt]

the northern outflow seems to be enhanced by shear. Very favorable set-up for RI. This could get sheared if it follows JTWCs path as the shear would then be over the storm, not the northern outflow

[Typhoon Hunter]

Gonu has really cranked up.

Here's the latest from RSMC Delhi:

TROPICAL STORM “GONU” ADVISORY NO. FOURTEEN ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 4TH JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 4TH JUNE 2007. THE VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “GONU” OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 4TH JUNE 2007 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 18.50N AND LONG 65.00E, ABOUT 850 KMS NEARLY WEST OF MUMBAI.


CURRENT INTENSITY T4.5 RPT T4.5. SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW VISIBLE “EYE” WITH BROKEN TO SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 75-85 KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T5.0 RPT T5.0. SEA CONDITION WILL BE PHENOMENAL.

Latest satellite analysis in my inbox has this considerably stronger:

391
TPIO10 KGWC 040250
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU)
B. 04/0231Z (29)
C. 19.0N/0
D. 65.2E/3
E. ONE/MET7
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS/ -03/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

5A/ PBO 10NM IRREG EYE/ANMTN.

BERNHARDT

[btangy]

Raw T numbers indicate that GONU may be closer to 130knots. It certainly has that look to it. I would think that as it gets closer to Oman, it will weaken because precipitable waters are pretty low close to the coast (30-35mm) as the airmass is more characteristic of continental desert. As dry low level air gets drawn into the core of the Gonu, it will really weaken quickly.

Also, the JTWC track is quite a bit farther N than the GFS or ECMWF guidance as both models have a ridge building to the N that will turn Gonu more toward the W. Both indicate a landfall further S which will keep the cyclone over higher ocean heat content. If this more southerly track verifies, this may offset some of the dry air that will work into the core, and Oman could be looking at a significant cyclone striking the coast, but from my brief glance at Google Earth, the coastline seems very sparsely populated. Still, a very unusual event for this part of the world.