Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[Weatherfreak14]

Thankfully this may be the system that gives us the rain we need so much here all along the SE coast. Tropicial, Suptropicial or nontropicial.

[Opal storm]

Thankfully this may be the system that gives us the rain we need so much here all along the SE coast. Tropicial, Suptropicial or nontropicial.

I guess mother nature does balance things out eventually.

[wxman57]

Thankfully this may be the system that gives us the rain we need so much here all along the SE coast. Tropicial, Suptropicial or nontropicial.

Oh, I think you may be begging for the rain to stop by Wednesday if the low actually drifts westward into GA/SC border area.

[NDG]

Im -removed- for the Euro right now.

We need rain!!!!!!

It would be a perfect storm for this area, maybe give the firefighters a break in south Georgia!

It might come true, is looking more and more of a track something close to the Euro.

[Weatherfreak14]

If you look closely,you can see the low pressure forming east of South Carolina.

Visible Pic Floater Loop

I see the low pressure its off the coast of VA/NC border coming down pretty rapidly if you look at the floater.

Is that an Eye with the swirl off of VA and NC.. I know its not but it looks close to it

[CrazyC83]

They should consider putting 90L.Invest on this system. I give it about a 20% chance of becoming Andrea.

[Opal storm]

It's not invest worthy yet.

[cpdaman]

coming down rapidly off the coast of virginia

right along the coast on the border? sure this isn't the upper low? my satelite loop isn't working this morn. on comp

watch the east hatteras bouy should keep droppin

[CrazyC83]

A hurricane force warning off of North Carolina? Folks a Full Blown
Hurricane Andrea would not surprise me by Thursday,
especially if it dips below 990 mb
990 mb = around 75 mph I think

Subtropical systems tend to have lower pressures than their wind speeds suggest.

[cpdaman]

and a larger wind field which means rough seas over a larger area

[Opal storm]

The swirl off the coast of VA appears to be heading SW.

[brunota2003]

AFD From Newport:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
416 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A MAJOR COASTAL STORM
WILL IMPACT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE
SOUND SIDE FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND BASIN AND
OCEAN OVER WASH AND BEACH EROSION ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF
HATTERAS. THE WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AND DOWN POWER LINES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST AND OUTER BANKS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT SW
MON NIGHT AND TUE BUT IT WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH
WIND...CLOUDS AND SOME RAINFALL THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT MEANDERS
NEAR THE SE COAST.

RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
OFF THE COAST BY 12Z THIS MORNING...THEN DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH
INTO NC HELPING TO ERODE CLOUDS AND END THE PCPN. A DEVELOPING
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH JUST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TODAY
PRODUCING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR AS THE LOW PULLS
DOWN COLD AIR FROM EASTERN CANADA WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUNGING TO
AROUND 0C. THUS TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK THE MID 60S TODAY
DESPITE EXPECTED SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST AND ENCOUNTERS A
STRONG 1035 MB+ HIGH BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NORTH TO
NORTHEAST GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MON. MODEL FORECAST WINDS INLAND
WERE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND ALLOWING DEEP MIXING OF WINDS
WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. ALONG THE COAST WINDS WILL BE
40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH.

THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATE MON AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED AND STOPS DEEPENING BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF
A GRADIENT TO KEEP GALE FORCE WINDS AND A SOUND SIDE FLOOD THREAT
THROUGH TUE. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE COAST
MON NIGHT AND TUE AND THIS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR RAIN...MAINLY
TO THE COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.COASTAL FLOODING...THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF N/NE STORM FORCE WINDS
ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND WILL PRODUCE WATER LEVELS OF 4 TO 7 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL AND LEAD TO MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BASIN...ESPECIALLY THE TIDAL CREEKS AND RIVERS. ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS THE MRP STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING WATER
LEVELS AROUND 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL WHICH MEANS THE OCEAN OVER WASH AND
BEACH EROSION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT HIGH TIDE.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE WEATHER WILL BE
CONTROLLED BY THE QUASI-STATIONARY LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED VCNTY OF THE SE COAST THROUGH FRI. NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM AFTER TUE BUT IT WILL LIKELY HELP TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FIR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD
BEGIN TO WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE BY LATE WEEK.


(On a side note, just heard on the radio that the airshow today was canceled, and Cherry Point thanks everyone who came out Friday and Saturday to help make the event worthwhile...)

[cpdaman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
922 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE OUTER
BANKS TODAY AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD...REMAINING JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MUCH OF THIS WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH...CREATING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

seems like this forecast trends to a wetter scenario for the sc coast with a low a little closer to home? anybody?

[jdray]

Im -removed- for the Euro right now.

We need rain!!!!!!

It would be a perfect storm for this area, maybe give the firefighters a break in south Georgia!

It might come true, is looking more and more of a track something close to the Euro.

Euro would give us 45mph winds and some decent rain.


Anything to help these fires get put out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This system will bring tropical storm force winds to the Carolinas even
though it's not a tropical storm the winds are the same!

And offshore the winds will reach hurricane force, even
though it's not an actual hurricane the winds will be
the same as in a category 1 hurricane!

I hope this brings huge rains to drought areas!


Gulf stream and Carolinas and coastal SE states
brace for a "Pressure-Gradient Induced Nontechnical" Hurricane

[JonathanBelles]

Will we get anything besides winds here on the West Coast of Fl? looks like we have a pretty good chance of rain today.

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane Force Wind Warning out to sea? Wow, this is like an Category 1 hurricane minus the warm core!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Will we get anything besides winds here on the West Coast of Fl? looks like we have a pretty good chance of rain today.

Rain is possible here.
The rain may miss us here in saint pete because the seabreeze will push everything inland
Unless a storm develops In Pinellas County Along the Seabreeze
Before it pushes inland

This is a wind event for central florida, but a "hurricane wind/rain" event for
the carolinas, georgia coast and offshore waters.

[wxman57]

A hurricane force warning off of North Carolina? Folks a Full Blown
Hurricane Andrea would not surprise me by Thursday,
especially if it dips below 990 mb
990 mb = around 75 mph I think

Subtropical systems tend to have lower pressures than their wind speeds suggest.

Wind speed with any system is produced by the pressure gradient between the storm center and pressures outside the storm. The reason that subtropical or winter-type storms can have such strong wind with relatively high central pressures (compared to tropical cyclones) is that there is usually a quite strong high pressure center north of the storm center to enhance the pressure gradient. Generally, high centers north of tropical cyclones are much weaker. This storm could easily have 60-75 mph winds over a quite large area north of the center, typical of "Nor'easters". Generally, it takes quite a while for such a storm center to transition to warm-core. There probably won't be time for such a transition with this storm, as it may be inland 48-72 hours after developing. But I wouldn't rule out the chance that the NHC might call it STS Andrea at some point (Wednesday, perhaps). Regardless, the effects across the SE US will be the same.

[wxman57]

Will we get anything besides winds here on the West Coast of Fl? looks like we have a pretty good chance of rain today.

Rain is possible here.
The rain may miss us here in saint pete because the seabreeze will push everything inland
Unless a storm develops In Pinellas County Along the Seabreeze
Before it pushes inland

This is a wind event for central florida, but a "hurricane wind/rain" event for
the carolinas, georgia coast and offshore waters.

As just about all of the pressure gradient will be north of the low center, and the low will stay to your north, there won't be much wind across northern or central Florida. Most of the rain will occur north of the low as well.