Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[NDG]

Any new models runs come out for the low in the sw carribean?

GFS tracks it across Nicaragua and develops it in the EPAC
CMC tracks it Northward towards western Cuba by 144 hrs. (another crappy run imo)
NOGAPS and UKMET are not doing much with it.

ECMWF joins NOGAPS & UKMET, looses the low on its 12z run.

Edited to add euro's 12z run comments.

[wxman57]

Looks like nothing of concern down there for the Atlantic Basin.

[jaxfladude]

Looks like nothing of concern down there for the Atlantic Basin.

Wasted Bandwidth.....drezee should be banned or suspended at least.

[drezee]

Convection has flared



EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N82W S TO 1009 MB LOW OFF THE
COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W.

[punkyg]

I'm thinking td by sunday! of course i can be wrong.

[drezee]

uncontaminated 25kt barb

[ronjon]

This mornings 06Z GFS run was interesting. It forms a low pressure in the SW Caribbean and brings it N-NE through central Florida over memorial day weekend. The 00Z CMC is similar by bringing low pressure toward SW FL in 6 days. The Euro, UKMET, and NOGAPs either show nothing (Euro) or weak low pressure that remains over the SW Caribbean (NOGAPs). All of the models over the past week have hinted at low pressure developing in the SW Carribean with various runs showing the system to either move west into the Pacific, remain stationary, or head north or northeast over the eastern GOM or the FL peninsula. The models are obviously keying on some overall global atmospheric conditions which are leading to lower pressure over the SW Caribbean. This fits climatology for early season development - this is the prime location. We now have heavy convection in the SW Caribbean. Not quite "bears watching" yet, but interesting nonetheless.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

[Opal storm]

Definitely something to keep a glance on through this weekend. Maybe an invest later this afternoon if convection keeps up.

[wxman57]

That's a prime area for early-season development and something to keep an eye on. Some models are indicating potential development down there in 4-5 days, but not this weekend. We see low pressure areas down there all the time in May/June/July. Most never develop.

[TheRingo]

cmc has it cutting through 29 degrees water.

[flwxwatcher]

I am no expert on this by any means but it also appears that another positive factor for development, the Madden-Julian Oscillation is moving into that area??

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... thly.shtml

[HURAKAN]

So far windshear is not favorable for development, especially in the central and northern Caribbean. Nonetheless, it has been decreasing over the past 24 hrs.

[tgenius]

cmc has it cutting through 29 degrees water.

I think that path assuming it stayed weak would bring the state Rain all around.. which I'm pretty sure we still need!

[Thunder44]

uncontaminated 25kt barb

It looks like an elongated area of low pressure in SW Carribean that would take awhile to get organized.

[ronjon]

06Z GFS originates the low pressure around current cluster of convection and quickscat center and slowly moves it north and then northeast. Doesn't get too strong & only one run so nothing really concerning now.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_108s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_132s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_192s.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_216s.gif

[NDG]

That would be nice if the 06z gfs was to very, to bring much needed rain to Fl, but I would have to see it on its 12z run before I believe that it could verify.

[Meso]

Probably not a big surprise but the Canadian has dropped what it showed as a low heading into Florida before..But...who knows things might change again by next run

[NDG]

Yeah, it dropped it, but it still has the moisture heading towards FL, like the 12z gfs.

[Damar91]

Don't know if it will last, but convection is really firing up down there now!

[jaxfladude]

This mornings 06Z GFS run was interesting. It forms a low pressure in the SW Caribbean and brings it N-NE through central Florida over memorial day weekend. The 00Z CMC is similar by bringing low pressure toward SW FL in 6 days. The Euro, UKMET, and NOGAPs either show nothing (Euro) or weak low pressure that remains over the SW Caribbean (NOGAPs). All of the models over the past week have hinted at low pressure developing in the SW Carribean with various runs showing the system to either move west into the Pacific, remain stationary, or head north or northeast over the eastern GOM or the FL peninsula. The models are obviously keying on some overall global atmospheric conditions which are leading to lower pressure over the SW Caribbean. This fits climatology for early season development - this is the prime location. We now have heavy convection in the SW Caribbean. Not quite [font=Arial Black]"bears watching" [/font] yet, but interesting nonetheless.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg