Thinking West-Central Gulf for Tropical Formation 9-12 Days

[Air Force Met]

BB: I love your committment and am sure watching your predictions to see what happens. This is kind of like reverse blob watching. Instead, it is watching for where the next blob/TC will form.
I know the GFS is not always accurate, but it is picking up on lots of convection in the area you have mentioned around the time you have mentioned. Could this be a sign of things to come?? Who knows but I will continue to watch.

Keep up the posts and thanks for your insight.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Not sure what you are seeing...but looking at the GFS for next week...I see NO precip in the middle GOM from the 14th to the 16th. There is NWly flow over most of the cntl and eastern GOM due to a longwave trof over the eastern US that sweeps through earlier in the week...plus some decent westerlies at 300 and 200 (50 kts at 200mb by the 16th according to the 12z run). Those factors will dry out the central and eastern GOM quickly. BY the 16th...thre are still widespread winds from the NW and west aloft. Given the longwave is supposed to nose down in less than 100 hours...I don't think the GFS is going to be totallu hosed...and the ridge currently to the north should keep the GOM dry...which it currently is. Yes there is a little moisture out there but look at the WV...it's dry.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif

Bottom line is this: If the upper level charts verify as the read now (and even the Euro and CMC have westerlies over the GOM next week), it won't be conducive for the development of any convection. Things can change in the long term and there is a tropical wave out there that will move into the GOM late next week...but there is also a long wave that is going to dry it out in the mid and upper levels early next week.

[Duddy]

Guess we will have to wait and see. I imagine Tuesday morning we will have a clear picture of what will happen.

[canetracker]

Not sure what you are seeing...but looking at the GFS for next week...I see NO precip in the middle GOM from the 14th to the 16th.

AFM: I really respect your opinion and will watch to see what scenario plays out. However, BB did not say middle Gulf he said West Central Gulf (24N, 92 W). He also said June 13th thru June 16th (Wed-Sat of next week). All I am noting is the GFS is showing "moisture" in the general area. It does not show development at this time.
Who knows what will happen but I sure will be watching to see what verifies and I admire BerwickBay's committment.

P.S. Guess I should have posted my personal disclaimer. "I am not a meteorologist, but just enjoy watching the weather and tracking the storms, so take my post for the two cents they are worth."

[Stormcenter]

I have to a agree with AFM. Anyway I wonder if someone would create a new post and title it "Look For A Major Hurricane Somwhere In The Tropics In Sept.". Would it generate this much interest? I guess things are so slow right now that even the possibility is interesting.

[skysummit]

I have to a agree with AFM. Anyway I wonder if someone would create a new post and title it "Look For A Major Hurricane Somwhere In The Tropics In Sept.". Would it generate this much interest? I guess things are so slow right now that even the possibility is interesting.

It must be since you find the need to respond so much.

[Stormcenter]

I have to a agree with AFM. Anyway I wonder if someone would create a new post and title it "Look For A Major Hurricane Somwhere In The Tropics In Sept.". Would it generate this much interest? I guess things are so slow right now that even the possibility is interesting.

It must be since you find the need to respond so much.

I must admit I am very curious to see if BB's predictions pans out but I am also aware
that it is June and not Aug. or Sept. so the likehood is low based climatology.

[Duddy]

Please stop assuming every prediction thread is bunk. This isn't 1-800-ASK-CLEO.

The more you attack good people who make good predictions, the less likely it is that the person will predict again. Then instead of having topics that generate scientific and friendly discussion, we have just a wiki on current storm systems.

[Air Force Met]

Not sure what you are seeing...but looking at the GFS for next week...I see NO precip in the middle GOM from the 14th to the 16th.

AFM: I really respect your opinion and will watch to see what scenario plays out. However, BB did not say middle Gulf he said West Central Gulf (24N, 92 W). He also said June 13th thru June 16th (Wed-Sat of next week). All I am noting is the GFS is showing "moisture" in the general area. It does not show development at this time.
Who knows what will happen but I sure will be watching to see what verifies and I admire BerwickBay's committment.

P.S. Guess I should have posted my personal disclaimer. "I am not a meteorologist, but just enjoy watching the weather and tracking the storms, so take my post for the two cents they are worth."

I guess it is a matter of interpretation...but to me...24/92 is the central GOM. Look at a map. IF 25/90 is the center part of the GOM...then 24/92 is only 128nm away. The western GOM is usually defined as anything west of 93W.

And...at 24/92...the GFS is showing no precip....and it is also very dry at 700mb. What little precip that is there is on the order of 1/2 inch or less...which that far out is isolated showers on the periphery of the high.

[windstorm99]

I also dont see any development in the gulf takeing shape anytime soon with the current conditions in place.Also the mess down in the sw caribbean has very litttle chance of developing with that ULL close by.

[windstorm99]

BB: I love your committment and am sure watching your predictions to see what happens. This is kind of like reverse blob watching. Instead, it is watching for where the next blob/TC will form.
I know the GFS is not always accurate, but it is picking up on lots of convection in the area you have mentioned around the time you have mentioned. Could this be a sign of things to come?? Who knows but I will continue to watch.

Keep up the posts and thanks for your insight.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

Not sure what you are seeing...but looking at the GFS for next week...I see NO precip in the middle GOM from the 14th to the 16th. There is NWly flow over most of the cntl and eastern GOM due to a longwave trof over the eastern US that sweeps through earlier in the week...plus some decent westerlies at 300 and 200 (50 kts at 200mb by the 16th according to the 12z run). Those factors will dry out the central and eastern GOM quickly. BY the 16th...thre are still widespread winds from the NW and west aloft. Given the longwave is supposed to nose down in less than 100 hours...I don't think the GFS is going to be totallu hosed...and the ridge currently to the north should keep the GOM dry...which it currently is. Yes there is a little moisture out there but look at the WV...it's dry.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_174l.gif

Bottom line is this: If the upper level charts verify as the read now (and even the Euro and CMC have westerlies over the GOM next week), it won't be conducive for the development of any convection. Things can change in the long term and there is a tropical wave out there that will move into the GOM late next week...but there is also a long wave that is going to dry it out in the mid and upper levels early next week.

It would be great news of this pattern of persistent trofiness continues threw the meat of the season as systems will have a hard time making it across and affecting the united states.

[Javlin]

Well I have not responded to this post waiting to see what would happen(thinking 1st may of been a fluke).Well I am still not quite ready to put a fork in it,yet.It's this S.Carib thing,what's in the way,the ULL.And what is the ULL doing,moving WSW while it sling shots the S Carib mess ENE around the E side(if it holds together).I remember when Chantal got sling shotted around one,an ULL N of the YUC and on too TX.Strange things happen in weather and ULL's are easy to figure out usually on how things move around them.Tomorrow might let me put a fork in it if the S Carib blob dies,otherwise I watch.Kevin

[wxman57]

Is someone throwing meat around in this thread? ("... threw the meat of the season...")

[NDG]

Is someone throwing meat around in this thread?

Yeah,

Here you go BB, I counted them, 10 popcorn thunderstorms moving towards your area.j/k

[Starburst]

Is someone throwing meat around in this thread? ("... threw the meat of the season...")

[Berwick Bay]

NDG, I like popcorn! Ten kernels, I guess thats about a good handful, huh? But I think there's more where that came from. Also, you see that pic which you laughingly posted? Be careful now, because there's more there than meets the eye. Near where those paltry showers are located, I suspect we'll see the beginning of a LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, perhaps as soon as later today. This circulation to move parallel with the northern coast of the Yucutan. Look for a little "niche" to be squeezed out ahead of the broad ULL. If true, this Low level cirulation could find "safe harbor" a little further west to northwest for possible development. Lets see, about 24N and 92W.

[wjs3]

BB:

I know you are bandwith challenged (so maybe haven't been able to look at some of this stuff yet), but there are a couple of things that might make this particular batch of popcorn (meat, popcorn...why do I get hungry when I read this thread) hard to pop.

(Because of your bandwith issues, I'm not going to link to these. If you want the URLs, let me know--you probably have them already)

I was just looking at the CIMSS shear analysis and the TAFB streamline analysis, as well as a close up stellite loop. This particular batch of convection is under some solid northerly shear. 200MB winds are out of the norrth, 850 is easterly. On the satellite close up you can see the tops of those storms getting blown downshear. Unless that changes (and, admittedly, I have not checked to see if it will--my favorite site to do so seems to be having trouble), I don't think that a true tropical process has a chance here--the t-storm build up and warming aloft that you really need to create divergence aloft and start lowering surface pressures is unlikely.

Good luck! Love to know if you see it differently. And, right or wrong, kudos to you for laying your opinion out on the line.

WJS3

[drezee]

I have not posted on any of these topics, because it is eerliy familiar to someone from a few years back that was banned. There are only three kinds of people that make these type of forecast claims: those who have no credibility, those who don't care about their credibility, or people who have made deals with the devil: which one are you?

There is a fourth...but it involves time travel kind of like Back to the Future part 3...so it was discredited.... :-

[wxman57]

On a more serious note (than my last post), I see lots of wind shear across the Gulf over the coming week. Though the GFS had been hinting at some type of west Caribbean development a week ago, it's not doing so any longer.

[drezee]

On a more serious note (than my last post), I see lots of wind shear across the Gulf over the coming week. Though the GFS had been hinting at some type of west Caribbean development a week ago, it's not doing so any longer.

For those of us who live in FL, that would be just fine. A few TD's for rain though...

[Cryomaniac]

There is a fourth...but it involves time travel kind of like Back to the Future part 3...so it was discredited.... :-

That and the fact that his name isn't John Titor