Ex Invest 95L

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Why is this a invest? I mean this is nothing....

[cycloneye]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 301255
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 UTC SAT JUN 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20070630 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070630 1200 070701 0000 070701 1200 070702 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 81.0W 27.5N 81.2W 28.0N 81.2W 28.4N 80.3W
BAMD 27.2N 81.0W 27.6N 80.3W 28.2N 79.3W 29.1N 78.1W
BAMM 27.2N 81.0W 27.5N 80.9W 28.0N 80.6W 28.5N 79.4W
LBAR 27.2N 81.0W 27.7N 80.5W 28.2N 79.6W 28.9N 78.0W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070702 1200 070703 1200 070704 1200 070705 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.8N 79.4W 29.9N 77.7W 31.6N 76.7W 34.2N 73.0W
BAMD 30.1N 75.0W 33.6N 58.8W 40.6N 38.3W 47.1N 14.6W
BAMM 29.0N 77.6W 30.1N 73.0W 31.7N 67.2W 34.7N 60.3W
LBAR 29.5N 75.7W 31.8N 68.4W 37.0N 58.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 37KTS 44KTS 36KTS 30KTS
DSHP 40KTS 46KTS 39KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.2N LONCUR = 81.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 27.4N LONM12 = 81.3W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 26.3N LONM24 = 81.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1015MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


The tropical models are still running for this?

[cpdaman]

there is much less shear todaty over the keys and sw florida while the shear is still present over the bahamas and a chunk of east central florida out thru the bahamas. the lower shear area should/may spread up through the state and the east florida today and the system (just w or nw of lake) could get slowly better organized. don't know if this thing is afraid of the water, but the water is warm and tempting mister invest

put a low in low shear conditions in the tropical atlantic (S of 27N) in and around the florida straits and development is usually a good bet IMO

[Chacor]

Waiting for the next TCPOD to see if recon goes ahead...

[wxman57]

Waiting for the next TCPOD to see if recon goes ahead...

Recon? You must be kidding. Just an area of scattered thunderstorms. No convergence, less storms than yesterday. There's nothing to investigate. NHC was just declaring it an "invest" so they could run some models on it "just in case", perhaps just for practice for some of the new forecasters. There's nothing to investigate.

Now the low near 29N/59W looks quite a bit more interesting. But it's heading out to sea and over colder water. I'd wager that if it was in the Gulf, the NHC would be calling it a TD or TS, though.

[Chacor]

Waiting for the next TCPOD to see if recon goes ahead...

Recon? You must be kidding.

No, obviously I didn't mean it.

[Recurve]

Maybe another wet day here, but nothing tropical to worry about...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS(600-200 MB)...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DEPICT AN
ELONGATED MID AND UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS MAIN AXIS FROM EAST TEXAS
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A DEVELOPING WAVE IS
SITUATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. TO THE
SOUTH...THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM CARRIBEAN ANTICYCLONE IS
SITUATED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE FLORIDA KEYS NOW LIE BENEATH
DEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM 700 TO 200 MB.

IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS(SURFACE TO 600 MB)...LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM DETAIL A
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WESTWARD TO NEAR THE GULF STREAM EAST OF THE CAROLINAS.
ANOTHER WEAK CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. ACROSS FLORIDA...A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...THE
FLORIDA KEYS LIE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...BENEATH LOW AND
MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 600 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE
ISLANDS...AND MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THE
12Z MORNING SOUNDING IS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST...WITH
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT 1.84 INCHES. SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY
WEST FROM THE SURFACE TO 20000 FEET...BUT THE LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILER DATA (VWP) SCANS AND 13Z SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM
SENSORS ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE REGISTERING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF...EXCEPT WEST TO NORTHWEST OUT AT DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK.
KEY WEST RADAR IS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA BAY
AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS.

.FORECAST...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(TODAY)...(600-200
MB)..BEST 200 MB DIFFLUENCE WILL REMAIN EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA...AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE BUILD OVER
THE KEYS.

IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...TODAY...A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE 00Z GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10000
FEET...SHOULD BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY LATER
THIS MORNING OR DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT THE PWAT IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES...AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT IS IN PLACE...WILL HOLD WITH INHERITED LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. CELL MOVEMENT SHOULD BE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY REACH 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN. NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST ATTM.

[Eyewall]

Why is this a invest? I mean this is nothing....

exactly..i've been saying that from the start

[pojo]

You have to remember there are also new personnel onboard the aircraft... we also have training to do.

As of yesterday this system was recon worthy... I'm waiting for call from my scheduler to see if I'm flying into the LLI tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

You have to remember there are also new personnel onboard the aircraft... we also have training to do.

As of yesterday this system was recon worthy... I'm waiting for call from my scheduler to see if I'm flying into the LLI tomorrow.

Negative



Shannon,the latest TCPOD is here.

[Aric Dunn]

lol . you all are funny.. the fact that we have a invest is do to .. there being a disturbance in the tropics that has persisted!! here is that "looks" thing again.. why to does every insist on doing that .. looks dont mean crap with weak systems... and since most people dont pay attention .. the over all circulation is way way more evident today compared to yesterday..the curved cloud patterns are much more defined and the center of the turning is nearing the east coast.. would not be surprised if it reformed off shore later to day or tonight.. if you dont think it has a chance why are do you keep watching it!! ?? if i did not think it was going to i would not watch it.. i would have to say that one would only keep watching it if they believed it had a chance..

[Aric Dunn]

and the shear has become lighter as forecast and should continue to do so some more. over the next 12 to 24 hours again..

[miamicanes177]

NHC was just declaring it an "invest" so they could run some models on it "just in case", perhaps just for practice for some of the new forecasters.

NHC forecasters are the best in the world and they do not declare invests so people can practice. NHC is a government agency who has a responsibility to protect the people. It really is that simple.

[Aric Dunn]

NHC was just declaring it an "invest" so they could run some models on it "just in case", perhaps just for practice for some of the new forecasters.

NHC forecasters are the best in the world and they do not declare invests so people can practice. NHC is a government agency who has a responsibility to protect the people. It really is that simple.

right except i dont think the nhc declares invest ??
would be the navy

[Chacor]

NHC was just declaring it an "invest" so they could run some models on it "just in case", perhaps just for practice for some of the new forecasters.

NHC forecasters are the best in the world and they do not declare invests so people can practice. NHC is a government agency who has a responsibility to protect the people. It really is that simple.

right except i dont think the nhc declares invest ??
would be the navy

The Navy has to discuss with NHC (or JTWC) before doing so, it's done in conjunction, according to the NHOP.

[Aric Dunn]

well there you go ..

[WindRunner]

Hmmm . . . CIMSS would argue that the wind shear has increased over the past 24 hours . . .


Yes, those maps aren't always right, but you can certainly still see the strong (~30kt) shear on early-morning vis imagery today . . . not favorable, and is bound to keep the convection a couple hundred miles to the circulation's east. Of course, it's a rather broad circulation that's centered NW of the lake with a weak low and no signs of nearby convection or banding . . . it would be a miracle to see this even try to develop . . .

[Aric Dunn]

you obviously dont know what curved banding features look like.. although not wraping all the way around they are there and are much more defined then they were yesterday

[wzrgirl1]

I believe it is centered over land right now........not good for formation

[Aric Dunn]

as for the shear.. there has been a over all decrease in shear.. with a few sopts of slight increase .. otherwise nearly the entire gulf where yesterday was 30kts everywhere and the atlanitic east of bahamas was pushing 50 in some areas has drop almost below 30 ..
you did not look at the previous analysis ... show the gradual decrease in overall shear..
and yes its still on the strong side.. but is still forecast to decrease to 15 to 20 kts which is a marginal amount for any developing system..