will we have an invest 96L soon?

[NDG]

Not at all a surprising event, this system needs to start gaining latitude quickly. It it's a wave that slowly creeps up then it'll lose it's envelope for development and be hit with shear.


Don't concentrate on how it's looking convection wise, you need to be looking to see if it begins moving North, and if the low persists.

Despite the nice appearance of this wave, I totally agree. The ITCZ imbedding is working against development. Unless this wave can seperate itself and then survive the shear it will encounter in the Caribbean, I don't see this being an event.

At the same time by being with the ITCZ is helping it by at least not being convection free, if it was at a higher latitude much closer to the SAL just to its north it would had been nothing than just a naked low level swirl, convection free, if you want this to develop in the future, you want this to stay in a low latitude underneath the SAL until it gets closer to the islands where hopefully the SAL will be less, by then it will need to gain latitude to see some development and stay clear from S.A.

[Aric Dunn]

interesting... i would like some feedback .. the loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html clearly shows the LLC.. the lastest convection bloom( small at the moment) has occured over the center..

anyway main point there are some signs that its breaking away slowly from the ITCZ>.


the image below is a crude drawing but should work!

the red colors are what we have going on now
the blue is what we normally see when there is a low embedded in the ITCZ..

when it is embedded you normally dont have the inflow or convergence on the west and sw side which would inhibit development.. and it what we had this morning and yesterday.. but this evening if you watch the loop the LLC is moving wnw away from the ITCZ and you can clearly see that.. the other thing is the inflow that is normally missing is now present due to the LLC possibly breaking off.. which would explain the convection near the center..
now there is still some inflow impedance but most of the circulation appears free .. if that is the case we may see something more than previously thought and since its night that gives it a little less accuracy and the NHC is not going to say much (which they did not) if in the morning the (red line ) or ITCZ is buckling more and wrapping into the center then we may be see something more?
.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

an addition at least the short term .. its in a moist envelop so dry air is not that big of a factor further north it moves is a different story!

[miamicanes177]

shear is quite favorable ahead of this disturbance at only 5-10kts.

[cycloneye]

msbee,to answer your title of thread question,if it keeps convection and low pressure like it is at 11:00 PM EDT invest 96L will be up overnight or in the morning hours.

[Aric Dunn]

that is a small but strong burst of convection .. clouds tops -60 degrees that a huge difference from the meager -30 -40 disorganized showers that were with all day..

[hurricanefloyd5]

that is a small but strong burst of convection .. clouds tops -60 degrees that a huge difference from the meager -30 -40 disorganized showers that were with all day..

What dose that me it seems to me that your saying it's starting to look alittle better .. slowly but surely

[hurricanefloyd5]

i think to me it's could/will become at lease TD#3 maybe a 35kt(40mph) TS CHANTAL!!!!!!!!

coondisions are favorable enought to get at lease a 35kt TS oreven an 30kt TD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

that is a small but strong burst of convection .. clouds tops -60 degrees that a huge difference from the meager -30 -40 disorganized showers that were with all day..





What dose that me it seems to me that your saying it's starting to look alittle better .. slowly but surely

yeah its looking a little better that burst of convection is more concentrated near the center verses spotty showers earlier

[hurricanefloyd5]

im hoping this will be a good rainmaker for florida!!!!!!I hope!!!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

im hoping this will be a good rainmaker for florida!!!!!!I hope!!!!!

I don't even think you can take this post seriously...


Let's start talking this in about 120 Hours...you know, if it even forms, or even survive the trip.

[hurricanefloyd5]

im hoping this will be a good rainmaker for florida!!!!!!I hope!!!!!

I don't even think you can take this post seriously...


Let's start talking this in about 120 Hours...you know, if it even forms, or even survive the trip.

I dont even care if it dose or dosen't form I just hope it's a rainmaker!!!!!!!name or no name!!!!!!!!!!!

[cycloneye]

im hoping this will be a good rainmaker for florida!!!!!!I hope!!!!!

I don't even think you can take this post seriously...


Let's start talking this in about 120 Hours...you know, if it even forms, or even survive the trip.

I dont even care if it dose or dosen't form I just hope it's a rainmaker!!!!!!!name or no name!!!!!!!!!!!

Ok,ok,ok.Calm down please.If you want this to be a rainmaker for your area the waiting will be extensive because it's thousands of miles away and we dont know if it will survive the hurdles it has to go thru.

[NDG]

If today's model runs were to be correct, by them forecasting the Atlantic ridge to build back towards its normal position just off the SE US coast by early next week, whatever this thing becomes or does not become would travel all the way west towards the GOM.

[Vortex]

GFS 00z 7/3 through H-36 apprars very bullish with this system...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Aric Dunn]

GFS 00z 7/3 through H-36 apprars very bullish with this system...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

yeah have been watching it roll in

[Aric Dunn]

Loops shows the overall wnw turn over the past few hours

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... m16ir.html

[Weatherfreak000]

It appears "96L-Wannabe" is still only in a marginally favorable environment still shear wise, but should enter an even better one when it reaches about 40W.

[Aric Dunn]

It appears "96L-Wannabe" is still only in a marginally favorable environment still shear wise, but should enter an even better one when it reaches about 40W.

what shear you mean the 5 maybe 10 kts thats hardly marginal .. and its moving with that .. this thing has almost nothing over top it !

[hurricanefloyd5]

this is going to be a fun system to watch wether it's a fish or not!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Weatherfreak000]

Aric 8.5N, 35.5 W is still embedded in some marginal shear. You can see for yourself in your own shear map.

Once this passes 40W it will truly be over favorable conditions shear wise.