Invest 96L East of Windwards,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[bvigal]

It sure doesn't look too healthy right now! At 40W, it's 3-4 days from Windwards, unless it slows down to under 10kts. So we'll be watching it pretty closely until it "poofs".

[TheRingo]

looks good now and passing diurnal minimum. probably see nice convection buildup this evening.

[EDR1222]

Looks like the NHC is thinking it has a chance to become a TD as of their most recent update today. It sure is far to the south....it will be interesting to see what happens over the next several days.

[Coredesat]

According to the CIMSS shear tendency maps, shear has been increasing in the vicinity of the system, and it is beginning to move into the dry air, which is probably why the convection has died away. It has a well-defined circulation, but that alone won't help. This could still become a TD, but that might be all this becomes.

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS has more than 17KT of shear over the system now. Right on the border of allowing the system to develop into a depression or a weak storm. Shear is expected to FLUCTUATE based upon the SHIPS output

[Windspeed]

As said before, the northern side of this wave is having to contend with dry air. Lacking thunderstorm activity will not only be a problem for classification, but will inhibit any kind of LLC from sustaining itself very long. However, the axis of this thing is folded from the looks of satellite and there is clearly rotation to the low and mid-level clouds. Having a low latitude favors this system right now. If the wave was any further north, it would not only be wiped out by being totally embedded in a dry airmass, but would have barely negligible leverage for development from SST support. East if 40ºW around 10ºN the 26ºC isotherm is running around 20-30m of depth even though the overall SST is averaging 27ºC, but only a few degrees north it drops off quite significantly, which is typical for early July. But considering the overall appearance of the wave, this is good-looking little system for the central Atlantic this time of year, so not surprised at all the attention it is getting.

If the system can reach 50ºW without gaining too much latitude, the things that will favor it for developing: 1) 26ºC isotherm doubles in depth to roughly 50-60 meters and the average temp increases a full degree at the surface. From roughly 55ºW through the Windwards SSTs are averaging 28ºC. 2) Though there is some mid-level and upper-level shear in the vicinity of the system, it is quite low west of 50ºW line and the 24 hour shear tendencies show little increase if not a further decrease in mid-level shear. Furthermore, there is development of a weak mid-to-upper level anti-cyclone around 12ºN, 55ºW, which is in the general direction this wave is moving, though this may remain a bit too far out in front of the system.

Not surprisingly, a lack of moisture in the SAL around the north side of the wave will remain be the biggest inhibitor for development. Wind shear is currently low near the islands and eastern Caribbean, but that can certainly change by the time this system arrives there in 2-3 days, especially this time of year. Much will depend on how much moisture pulls west with it and from the southern side of the wave, and if deep convection can sustain itself over a LLC. Fairly cliche stuff as far as waves in this general area are concerned for this time of year, if not most of the time.

By far the best looking system we've had the opportunity to watch east of the Antilles so far. Hopefully it will only be a nice little warm up for August and that is all that will come of it. Posts comparing this to Dennis is its early stages of development make me cringe, though I suspect warranted. It's actually better looking at this longitude than what eventually developed into Dennis. But that was a different situation and there was not nearly as much dry air to contend with Dennis when it was developing versus what this current system is facing. It's not uncommon to get a depression east of the islands in July that ends up dying out or comes of nothing. At most, that is all I am looking for here.

[windstorm99]

Watching 96L from work and now home convection has somewhat being on the decrease as its movement brings it into a more stable enviroment which is not good for futher development.I suspect a TD seems reasonable but i think the more likely outcome is to not expect to much right now as conditions in front of this system are not to favorable.Adrian

NHC-2:05 Discussion-Special Feature

A LOW PRES SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED
1014 MB CENTERED NEAR 10N39W OR ABOUT 1350-1400 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
THE CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NE OF THE MORE DENSE CLOUD
COVER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S AND W OF
THE CENTER.

[tolakram]

The banding I thought I saw is more pronounced now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

If you rock the image you can see how the storm seems to be in control of the surrounding clouds. THe last few frames, though, look sloppy and disorganized.

Again, with my untrained eye.

[CrazyC83]

Could it be a TD right now?

[sevenleft]

Could it be a TD right now?

In theory.

[cheezyWXguy]

actually, convection has just started to refire right next to the center on the south side...look on visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think this looks very close to a tropical
depression if not already a tropical depression.
Slow strengthening is possible...once this gets
into the Caribbean...if it does not dry out too much,
it could develop more substantially over the
high heat content waters so long as shear stays low.

Banding and organization look very close
to tropical depression characteristics.

If I had to guess I would say it is a tropical depression
but that's my own little guess...

[skysummit]

I guess I'm seeing something a little different than some here. I'm seeing a better organized system than it was a few hours ago. Banding is becoming more pronounced, and now that the moisture blob that was over it earlier has moved off to the southwest and decreased, I'm seeing a more compact system with new thunderstorm development just to the south of where I believe the center to be. Can this activity increase and wrap? Time will tell, but it does look better to me now than it did only 2 - 4 hours ago.

[Sjones]

The Weather Channel just stated they expect this to die out soon. No concerns what-so-ever . Looks interesting to me...

[cheezyWXguy]

I guess I'm seeing something a little different than some here. I'm seeing a better organized system than it was a few hours ago. Banding is becoming more pronounced, and now that the moisture blob that was over it earlier has moved off to the southwest and decreased, I'm seeing a more compact system with new thunderstorm development just to the south of where I believe the center to be. Can this activity increase and wrap? Time will tell, but it does look better to me now than it did only 2 - 4 hours ago.

I see it looking better now too...thunderstorms are refiring by the center and IMO, the LLC looks more vigorous than before...

[cycloneye]

222
WHXX04 KWBC 031720
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 96L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.8 38.2 285./ 9.9
6 10.3 38.8 313./ 7.6
12 10.4 38.5 67./ 2.6
18 10.4 39.0 264./ 4.4
24 10.4 40.0 269./ 9.9
30 10.1 40.5 242./ 5.2
36 9.9 41.4 258./ 9.3
42 9.9 42.5 269./10.6
48 9.7 43.9 262./14.0
54 9.4 45.1 256./12.1
60 8.3 47.5 245./26.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 60 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


The 12z GFDL dissipates 96L in 60 hours.Let's see what happens down the road with this but it's the talk of the news here in Puerto Rico as it has got the attention of the media here.

[windstorm99]

[Lowpressure]

It looks to be trying to vent in the northern semi circle with marginal outflow there. There is some convection trying to refire closer to the center. Shear looks to be a bit too high for immediate classification. System looks to be going almost due west 270.

[cheezyWXguy]

The Weather Channel just stated they expect this to die out soon. No concerns what-so-ever . Looks interesting to me...

hahahaha...2 hours ago, they said it could become a TD at any time...now they see it will die out soon? can these people not make up their minds?

[CrazyC83]

The Weather Channel just stated they expect this to die out soon. No concerns what-so-ever . Looks interesting to me...

hahahaha...2 hours ago, they said it could become a TD at any time...now they see it will die out soon? can these people not make up their minds?

It could be they just went through a shift change...