Long-Term Model Runs

[Scorpion]

Lol, after the next coming of Hugo another system is headed perhaps towards the northeast at 384

[Meso]

BAM!!!!

[Ivanhater]

Landfall in the Carolinas....So now we have anywhere from Mexico to the southeast coast in range...

[Opal storm]

That's still pretty far out, but dang that's a strong storm.

[Brent]

Again I'm not interested in specifics, but the consistency about a major hurricane(it appears) is there in 2 weeks. Enjoy the quiet...

[weatherman21]

I just finished observing the 18Z model run of the GFS which remains very consistant and according to the 18Z run, the GFS is now calling for the wave to emerge off the west coast of Africa by Friday instead of Saturday. I also see the GFS calling for possibly a stronger cyclone than the earlier runs over the eastern Atlantic. The short-range track is very similar to previous runs; although, the long-range GFS is now indicating a landfall along the Southeast United States. I live in Eastern North Carolina, so I will be watching very closely. Here are a few screen captures from the 18Z GFS Run:

Forecast for 0z on 8/15:


Forecast for 6z on 8/16: (notice the area of low pressure behind the possible cyclone)


Long-Range Forecast; 6z on 8/20: (The area of low pressure remains behind the cyclone)


Long-Range Forecast; 6z on 8/22:

[jasons2k]

So once again the GFS breaks down the ridge. I'll believe it when I see it.

[windstorm99]

In regards to viewing the models in the IDV, just go to "Data" from the Menu bar, then under "New Data Source", select "From a Catalog". This takes you to a window which allows you to choose what particular model you want to view and the IDV offers the RUC, NAM, and GFS models. Once you are at the Catalog window, you will be able to see the various model types to choose from. I prefer the GFS Global 1 degree for the short-range and then the GFS Global 2.5 degree for the extended range. Once you load your model into the Field Selector, you will want to click on the "Region" tab, located on the right-hand side if the Field Selector to outline the area which you want to view for the model. There are many different model products to choose from.

There is no new data source i can find after you click data from the menu bar?Can you take me through the process once again thanks adrian.

[weatherman21]

When you install and then open the IDV, you should have a blank map with maybe the World Coastlines outlined. From there, at the top of the screen on the menu bar where you have File, Edit, Displays, Data, Tools, and Help, choose "Displays" and you should get a pull-down menu where you see "Formulas" and "New Data Source". From there, when you go to "New Data Source", you should see another menu pop up with a list of options including "Satellite Imagery", "Surface Observations", "From a Catalog", etc. When you choose "From a Catalog", you should recieve a list of different models to choose from. I hope this helps, if not, let me know.

Jacob.

[windstorm99]

When you install and then open the IDV, you should have a blank map with maybe the World Coastlines outlined. From there, at the top of the screen on the menu bar where you have File, Edit, Displays, Data, Tools, and Help, choose "Displays" and you should get a pull-down menu where you see "Formulas" and "New Data Source". From there, when you go to "New Data Source", you should see another menu pop up with a list of options including "Satellite Imagery", "Surface Observations", "From a Catalog", etc. When you choose "From a Catalog", you should recieve a list of different models to choose from. I hope this helps, if not, let me know.

Jacob.

I have not yet installed the program....I only suscribed. Were do i get the program to install?Thanks again and sorry for all the questions.Adrian

[weatherman21]

Its ok. I have been in very similar situations myself. On the website, http://www.unidata.ucar.edu, you will see a link called "IDV" near the top of the page. The "IDV" link is located under the "Display and Analysis" link. Click on "IDV" from the website hompage. Once you come to the page titled "Integrated Data Viewer", you will see where on that page it says "IDV 2.2 Now Available". Click on the "download" tab which is located under the statement "IDV 2.2 Now Available". From here, you will come to a page which asks for your Email Address and Password which was sent to you at the time you registered with Unidata. Once you have entered in this information, click "Submit" and you will then come to the download page where you will select the link: "IDV 2.2 Installer for Windows", or which ever operating system you plan to run the IDV on. From there, you should be able to download the software to your computer.

God Bless,
Jacob.

[Steve]

>>So once again the GFS breaks down the ridge. I'll believe it when I see it.

Yeah, at 12 days out that would seem kind of improbable right now. Wutip's track was adjsuted a little back to the +/- north of due west and is actually still heading +/- 285 200 miles inland. Current WV imagery shows a pretty strong east-to-west (west-to-east on that side of the world?? ) flow with embedded, concentric upper level lows (concentric upper level lows often a sign of more than average activity south of their latitudes from what I've seen over the years.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/loop-wv.html

Steve

[Meso]

00z GFS


00z CMC (Speaks for itself) and still showing the system the GFS is picking up in the Atlantic


00z Euro,Some lower pressures in the gulf


00z Nogaps also showing a low in the gulf


00z Ukmet also showing a low in the Atlantic where the GFS is showing (Ukmet is one of the more conservative models too)


06z GFS at 288 hours...

[flwxwatcher]

Yes, 06Z GFS still has the system ( florida hit this run) . The UKMET is on board now with Eastern Atlantic development

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[windstorm99]

One thing is for sure with various models now showing development in the eastern atlantic iam thinking we will see development out here probably sometime in the next 2 weeks or so.

SAL needs to move out though before we see anything siginifcant coming out of the eastern atlantic.

[Steve]

Portions of the GFS 12z run are in. This is the 850mb/SLP/precip link.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

GFS is still looking to build a strong cane, but this time, intead of Florida or North Carolina, it hits eastern Canada. Clearly its well documented problems are causing its long-term runs to be suspect and all over the map with the system it keeps spinning up.

Steve

[Steve H.]

Now the Euro 12Z is showing a Storm/cane going near the Virgin Islands by hour 240

[Scorpion]

Now the Euro 12Z is showing a Storm/cane going near the Virgin Islands by hour 240

Missing the trough too.. westward ho

[cycloneye]

Now the Euro 12Z is showing a Storm/cane going near the Virgin Islands by hour 240

Bring the link when the 12z rolling is over

[x-y-no]

12Z Euro is more bullish on both systems, carrying a closed low off Africa and across the basin through day 7, and also developing a system in the Bay of Campeche and taking it towards Mexico.