System In Caribbean,Possible Development?

[vaffie]

Looking at surface reports and satellite pictures, the place to watch may be just to the east of Jamaica and south of Haiti.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at surface reports and satellite pictures, the place to watch may be just to the east of Jamaica and south of Haiti.

yes south of jamaica


OK watch this area later today for some increase in convection! which may lead to our system possibly

so just south of Jamaica.this where we have more convergence and would likely see a increase in some deeper convection later today and tonight


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rgb.html

... oh and CMC is not the only model developing it
nogaps is all over it http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

although the Nogaps is jumping on board with euro yesterday


and here is the CMC .. i hardly just call it the cmc on LSD if the nogaps and euro are developing something





also i was reading post earlier and some were debating on vorticity maps well you can use this one which is even closer to the surface at 925mb

[Steve]

Aric,

In my mind, the question is how the models are interpreting what they're seeing. With the CMC, you no longer have a fujiwara situation. Now it's a front running wave into Mexico and a stronger system heading into the Gulf (haven't been to the GEM site to see if the 12z is out, but it will be interesting to see the output). And I think the key with it - and that assumes it's got a handle on things which is somewhat of a big leap of faith - and the NOGAPS is if they are sensing energy from more than one source and struggling to define what happens or will time sort out what's about to happen in the 5-9 day period. For my money, I'm with KFDM for probably 8 or 9 days at least on the blocking high situation. That would mean a second energy source would be more of a threat to interests in the U.S. and A with the frontrunner simply heading westward across the BOC.

Steve

[vaffie]

Thanks AD. Vorticity chart is interesting, indicating satellite-detected spin south of Haiti--like I'd thought I saw. It's gonna be a stormy night in and around Jamaica--will be interesting to see if anything has hatched in the morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

In my mind, the question is how the models are interpreting what they're seeing. With the CMC, you no longer have a fujiwara situation. Now it's a front running wave into Mexico and a stronger system heading into the Gulf. And I think the key with it - and that assumes it's got a handle on things which is somewhat of a big leap of faith - and the NOGAPS is if they are sensing energy from more than one source and struggling to define what happens or will time sort out what's about to happen in the 5-9 day period. For my money, I'm with KFDM for probably 8 or 9 days at least on the blocking high situation. That would mean a second energy source would be more of a threat to interests in the U.S. and A with the frontrunner simply heading westward across the BOC.

Steve

of course im not saying the system or area near jamaica is the one thing that will develop.. the whole point is that a couple very reliable models (euro nogaps cmc not so much) develop something im not really looking at the details just looking at the big picture. there appears to be the right conditions for at a minimum a huge mess of crap in the NW carrib starting tomorrow and lasting trough the next 5 days so and the nogaps start putting something together tomorrow. and as for what the met said the question to me is not where its going; dont care, its what out there to develop so its irrelevant trying to figure where something is going when there nothing substantial to track.

only time will tell . my post before was simply stated that we should see the start of some deeper convection in and around where the models are developing something. we know that its not going to come from no where so its going t be a slow process..

[Normandy]

All the convection firing today is associated with outflow boundaries.....not looking good for tropical development.

[Aric Dunn]

All the convection firing today is associated with outflow boundaries.....not looking good for tropical development.

i would not imagine so if your looking for development today!! obviously nothing today its going to take some time 24 to 48 hours before anything would even remotely look interesting.. just need to watch this area some interesting ingredients are coming together .

[Normandy]

^Don't really see much of anything coming together any time soon....Notice the pattern of ULL's riding down into the carribean and through the BOC around the ridge. The upper air pattern in the Carribean is chaotic and looks to be chaotic during the next 24-48 hrs. The same type of convective developent would seem to be shear induced and sporadic.

[Aric Dunn]

^Don't really see much of anything coming together any time soon....Notice the pattern of ULL's riding down into the carribean and through the BOC around the ridge. The upper air pattern in the Carribean is chaotic and looks to be chaotic during the next 24-48 hrs. The same type of convective developent would seem to be shear induced and sporadic.

well i see all that but dont forget that shear induced convection is often times what is the start of some slow tropical development.

[Normandy]

Sure it is Aric.
But this thing really has nothing going for it....shear is bad and it has no semblance of concentrated convection (something it would need RIGHT now imo for anything to occur in a couple of days given the environment). The area of lowest pressure and highest vorticity is being hammered by shear and isn't producing in concentrated convection. 99L had much better upper air dynamics and was a much better defined wave and failed to develop, so what makes you think this will (having worse conditions and being a more poorly defined wave)?

[Derek Ortt]

The models are NOT developing the thing near Haiti

They are developing something that is currently over SOUTH AMERICA

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, I do not think this is a short-term situation. The possible development looks to take place more toward this weekend and early next week in the NW Caribbean or southern GOM...3-6 days down the road.

[Aric Dunn]

Sure it is Aric.
But this thing really has nothing going for it....shear is bad and it has no semblance of concentrated convection (something it would need RIGHT now imo for anything to occur in a couple of days given the environment). The area of lowest pressure and highest vorticity is being hammered by shear and isn't producing in concentrated convection. 99L had much better upper air dynamics and was a much better defined wave and failed to develop, so what makes you think this will (having worse conditions and being a more poorly defined wave)?

did you read the post I said watch this are later and tomorrow for the convection to increase!! and then the whole area needs to be watch over the next day or two .. and this wave may have more shear in the upper levels but the low level shear that kept 99L from closing off a low is much much less.. but now we are talking about something that is not there yet so thats why i said I expect convection to increase in the western carrib that would then need to be watched

[Normandy]

The models are NOT developing the thing near Haiti

They are developing something that is currently over SOUTH AMERICA

What? Something over South America?
LOL folks time to look eslewhere.

EDIT:
And yes Aric I read your post.....read mine again and I give my reasoning as to why this won't develop 2-3 days AHEAD. If your calling for this to develop in 4-6 days, I won't say anything because something could develop ANYWHERE in 4-6 days...its a toss-up that far out.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, I do not think this is a short-term situation. The possible development looks to take place more toward this weekend and early next week in the NW Caribbean or southern GOM...3-6 days down the road.

agreed.. short term just a increase in convection over the western carrib. and yes derek there appears to be some engery that would come from SA that would be in combination.

[skysummit]

Yeah, I do not think this is a short-term situation. The possible development looks to take place more toward this weekend and early next week in the NW Caribbean or southern GOM...3-6 days down the road.

agreed.. short term just a increase in convection over the western carrib. and yes derek there appears to be some engery that would come from SA that would be in combination.

That's what the NAM is showing....coming from S.A.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't even think it will just be the S.A. energy either. Instead, I think the waves to the east will meet up with the S.A. energy and combine together in an area of lowering pressures to generate something that could get interesting under the ridge to the north. The exact location of this all happening is still hard to pinpoint, but I think the NW Caribbean or the southern GOM are the most likely candidates ATM. We still have a few days to watch this though and a lot can change between now and then.

[Derek Ortt]

I cannot find ANYTHING over SA at all at the moment. This is why I think CMC is on LSD (or something similar) this time

[Aric Dunn]

I don't even think it will just be the S.A. energy either. Instead, I think the waves to the east will meet up with the S.A. energy and combine together in an area of lowering pressures to generate something that could get interesting under the ridge to the north. The exact location of this all happening is still hard to pinpoint, but I think the NW Caribbean or the southern GOM are the most likely candidates ATM. We still have a few days to watch this though and a lot can change between now and then.

yeah it should be a combination .. as I said and you said ..but just watch the area over the next 24hrs for the convection to increase......

[Aric Dunn]

I cannot find ANYTHING over SA at all at the moment. This is why I think CMC is on LSD (or something similar) this time

but its not just the CMC add the nogaps and euro to the LSD list