Invest 90L: East Atlantic-Discussions,Analysis,Sat Pics

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It's just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

First % chance for Invest 90L to become:

Tropical Depression 4: 88% (High)
Tropical Storm Dean: 80%
Hurricane Dean: 70%
Category 2 Hurricane Dean: 68%
Category 3 Hurricane Dean: Unknown %
Category 4 Hurricane Dean: Unknown %
Category 5 Hurricane Dean: Totally Unknown %

The latest TWO by the NHC is quite something. They know this one is going to form.

[DrewFL]

Yeah, the language is very telling of a soon to be TD:


CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

[tropicsPR]

We, in Puerto Rico, are watching closely the development and future track of this vigorous wave. Our hurricane plans are ready...

[Downdraft]

miamicanes177 "This SO has Miami, FL and then the central gulf coast written all over it. Everyone here knows it deep down inside. I see it passing just slightly north of the Leewards and then riding north of Hispaniola and Cuba so as not to weaken it any. Then a bulldozer straight to Miami, FL and into the gulf passing over the loop current and making a B-line for the LA, MS, AL folks."

You sure are brave to make a forecast like that with absolutely nothing to base it on. I wish the NHC had your crystal ball!

[cycloneye]

We, in Puerto Rico, are watching closely the development and future track of this vigorous wave. Our hurricane plans are ready...

I second that.I am preparing just in case.

[Derek Ortt]

I will still be giving this second priority though... so any discussions, at least immediately, can be expected to be short. Had this problem in 2004 with Frances/Ivan. Also during Rita where a CPAC major had to be relegated (an it pained me to do so as I was getting thousands of page views for that CPAC storm)

[Downdraft]

Okay I'll be the first to say it ....."Holy Crap!"

[El Nino]

I think we can forgot the fish ...

[Derek Ortt]

yeah... this one does not look to recurve

a blind folded chimpanzee can see that this one is likely to at least threaten the Caribbean

[cycloneye]

dixiebreeze,call your friend to put the floater sat image for 90L.

[MusicCityMan]

Could depend on the Bermuda High as to where this 1 ends up. Does Florida once again have a target on its' back?..

he looks very impressive in his early stages. 1st long tracker of 2007 it appears to be shaping into..

[tropicsPR]

yeah... this one does not look to recurve

a blind folded chimpanzee can see that this one is likely to at least threaten the Caribbean

Mr. Ortt, as a resident of Puerto Rico, your comment as a pro-met is of great importance to me. Please, can you explain what atmospheric conditions in the track of this wave make you think it will likely threaten the Caribbean? Respectfully, tropicsPR (Puerto Rico)

[Evil Jeremy]

Derek, your starting to scare me

[Wx_Warrior]

This one is hitting the US....Looks to have a b-line for GOM.

[jimvb]

The space shuttle Endeavour was launched on August 8 and will land at Kennedy space center on August 19. However, their schedule could be delayed. For example, a tile needs to be repaired. If so, it would be delayed 3 days, until August 22. But will they land on August 22 if that happens? The GFS model runs says that's the time that Invest 90L will strike Florida as a substantial hurricane. I think they may land at Edwards.

[caribepr]

I've given a few friends a heads up on this. Everyone I know is *prepared* but putting it into action...we know what that means. I was supposed to go to Tortola that weekend. We're saying...three more days, we'll all make some decisions.
I am relying on S2K for real info, as I have before, as I watch but I am not skilled in more than watching. The pro's and close to pro's are my eyes...thank you.

[DrewFL]

[Derek Ortt]

the ridge of high pressure and a lack of a weakness are the reasons why this should track mainly to the west

[robbielyn]

What degree latitude does it need to be above to affect the us? I know early in the season it's below 10 degrees preventing a us hit. Is it around 15?

[Derek Ortt]

a rule I use for affecting the US mainland (works better than the Herbet Box)

A storm must pass 70W south of 25N