Global Models for 90L

[KWT]

Note though the UKMO starts way too far west and probably a little too far south, adjusted it'd probably hit the northern windward Islands and skim about 1 degree south of the major Caribbean Islands.
Must say the models do seemingly want to take it into the Caribbean and given the strong high to the north can't argue with them. Slightly north of west track from all the models so far. The westerly track into the Caribbean would be extremely interesting though given the heat content present.

Also I think the GFDL WSW jog is probably just a response to the 0.8 degree gain the system gains at the start of the run, in truth I suspect it'll just go westerly and catch up and eventually meet up with the forecasted latitude around 36-48hrs time.

[Weatherfreak000]

Like I said, track into the Caribbean seems the most likely threat as of now given it's quick speed.

If it slows down a bit, we could see a more Northward bias...

[wzrgirl1]

Lyons said it will slow down once it reaches the islands....said that on the tropical update a couple of hours ago

[cycloneye]

Jan or any pro met,What do you think of the change of the UKMET to abandon the more north track?

[ronjon]

12Z CMC takes a slightly more NW bend toward the end of its run putting PR in its path. I did notice that the last 6 hrs of the GFDL slows the storm slightly and moves it more NW (287 deg vs 270 deg) - don't know if that's anything special or just a jog.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Scorpion]

Wow the CMC absolutely hammers PR

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow the CMC absolutely hammers PR

yeah, that would be bad! Luckily though, the CMC is probably the model most likely to be wrong.

[wzrgirl1]

Wow the CMC absolutely hammers PR

yeah, that would be bad! Luckily though, the CMC is probably the model most likely to be wrong.

It may be wrong about the location....but check out that ridge....that doesn't look like it's going anywhere....looks as if it is building back in to the west....wonder if the cmc is wrong about that too

[Brent]

12Z CMC takes a slightly more NW bend toward the end of its run putting PR in its path. I did notice that the last 6 hrs of the GFDL slows the storm slightly and moves it more NW (287 deg vs 270 deg) - don't know if that's anything special or just a jog.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Looks like Georges all over again to that point.

Of course it is the CMC.

On another note, look at that ridge!!!!!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

The BAMs are fed initial and boundary conditions from the GFS, IIRC, thus, if there is a problem with the GFS solution, the BAMs will also have a problem.

[clfenwi]

Is the NOGAPS STILL not developing this?

NOGAPS is sleeping.Lets see if the 12z run soon brings something.

Nope: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2007081212

Brings to mind a quip a professor of mine had about that model: "They call it NOGAPS ... but it actually has a lot of gaps!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow the CMC absolutely hammers PR

yeah, that would be bad! Luckily though, the CMC is probably the model most likely to be wrong.

It may be wrong about the location....but check out that ridge....that doesn't look like it's going anywhere....looks as if it is building back in to the west....wonder if the cmc is wrong about that too

No, it is probably not wrong about the ridge. Nearly every other model shows the exact same thing. The thing it might be wrong about though is the exact track of the storm (showing it hitting PR).

[destruction92]

It may be wrong about the location....but check out that ridge....that doesn't look like it's going anywhere....looks as if it is building back in to the west....wonder if the cmc is wrong about that too[/quote] No, it is probably not wrong about the ridge. Nearly every other model shows the exact same thing. The thing it might be wrong about though is the exact track of the storm (showing it hitting PR).[/quote]

Actually, 90L is forecast to get very close to the "greater antilles"/Puerto Rico if not direclty hitting Puerto Rico.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

ONE FEATURE GARNERING INCREASING ATTENTION IS THE TROPICAL WAVE
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDES...AS THE 00Z/12Z GFS/GFDL/HURRICANE
WRF/ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN/NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW
DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WITH A CONSENSUS
(AND MANUAL PROG) TRACK TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE GREATER
ANTILLES. TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THE PRIMARY FORM OF DISAGREEMENT
(MANUAL PROGS CLOSEST TO THE 06-12Z GFDL/00Z-12Z CANADIAN/12Z SAT
ECMWF MODELS) WITH SECONDARY NORTH-SOUTH DIFFERENCES AS WELL. SEE
THE TPC/NHC BULLETINS FOR THE LATEST STATUS AND OUTLOOK.

[Steve]

A chink in the armor for the modeling. 10 days from the 17th would be the 27th (+/- one of the dates of interest with Dean-to-be). Watch the evolution of the TS #09W track (not yet named I don't think). The East Atlantic/WPAC teleconnections have been good the last couple of weeks.

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0907.gif

IR with winds:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... gmsir.html

IR with upper level winds

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... gmswv.html

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

the models tend to have a northerly bias in this part of the Atlantic

[hurricanefloyd5]

And it starts!!!! The feeling and thoughts of wondering if models take it to florida or into the GOM, the Carribean or out to SEA you know that sorta thing and it is that funny feeling is starting to arise after looking at the model aric posted and the mixedfeeling is threwn in there as well!!!!!!!!!!!!LOL!!!!!!!! mixed feeling on it!!!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Joe Bastardi just posted on his pay per view site and wonders if GFS hasn't been tweaked to correct previous right bias. He suspects 90L/Dean is further North than GFS, and probably recurves near Longitude of Florida. He says storm likely intense at closest approach/landfall to US, and while he hasn't picked a landfall location, suggested the hundred year solution that hits North Florida or Georgia from the SSE.

[miamicanes177]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007081212-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
12Z GFDL for 968mb at the Leewards

[Blown Away]

Wow, if he picks N Florida/ Georgia, that's going way out on the limb. Atlantic landfalls almost never happen in that area.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wow, if he picks N Florida/ Georgia, that's going way out on the limb. Atlantic landfalls almost never happen in that area.

Earlier post he mentioned the once in a century path as being a possibility.

He hasn't officially stated a prediction, other than that it doesn't recurve before either coming very close to hitting, or hitting, US.