Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm really rather amused seeing all these worried posts.


It was stated that BECAUSE we are in the diurnal minimum and BECAUSE convection is so limited it won't be upgraded at 5. That's all you need to get from this.


I think some of you guys needs to step away from your computers, and go do something else. Chill out.

[wxmann_91]

Iris was nearly a category 5 hurricane

Dont include that with the list

Chantal and Helene were completely different setups with the LLC ahead of the convection, not lagging behind

Oopsy daisy... I meant the LLC outrunning convection, not the other way around.

It may be under easterly shear right now but I suspect that may change.

<weenietalk>At least the GFS QPF output implies that the LLC outruns the convection.</weenietalk>

I should've specified, I meant this would not become a strong hurricane until it gets near landfall. Excluding the last few hours, Iris had problems with the low levels from its birth. Obviously the GFS has issues with upper air forecasts, but I can't argue against persistance from what's been happening this year.

[Lowpressure]

The thing to remember here is that the longer it takes to develop, the higher the probability of not being a fish and something many may have to deal with down the road.

[RL3AO]

Be back later. People are too "I want it now". Waves and storms weaken in the evening. I'm sorry guys, but it wont be a cat 3 by morning. Later.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm really rather amused seeing all these worried posts.


It was stated that BECAUSE we are in the diurnal minimum and BECAUSE convection is so limited it won't be upgraded at 5. That's all you need to get from this.


I think some of you guys needs to step away from your computers, and go do something else. Chill out.

It's called deja vu

[Brent]

OK, I think I've calmed down. I had to get off 90L for 5 minutes. I think we all need just to take a short break from it this afternoon while development is not imminent. It's going to be a long week...

I will be keeping the idea of no development in the back of my mind though.

[wxman57]

The thing to remember here is that the longer it takes to develop, the higher the probability of not being a fish and something many may have to deal with down the road.

That is true. Slower development means a more westerly track. But the faster forward speed and low-level shear also increases the chance of it being ripped apart in the next day or two. I'd still give it a 70-80% shot at developing.

[Lowpressure]

All I can say is I hope S2K has real good servers, because when we do get a big hurricane, this board is going to light up like the Grizzwald house at Christmas!!

[cycloneye]

OK, I think I've calmed down. I had to get off 90L for 5 minutes. I think we all need just to take a short break from it this afternoon while development is not imminent. It's going to be a long week...

You are right,Development is halted now,but down the road,conditions may be better for it to go ahead and turn into a TD and more.I would not mind if it stays as an open wave as it moves thru the Caribbean,thank you very much

[Weatherfreak000]

I'm really rather amused seeing all these worried posts.


It was stated that BECAUSE we are in the diurnal minimum and BECAUSE convection is so limited it won't be upgraded at 5. That's all you need to get from this.


I think some of you guys needs to step away from your computers, and go do something else. Chill out.

It's called deja vu

If your trying to argue "99L all over again" I laugh. It's ironic the post your all so afraid of showed you exactly why 99L didn't develop.

A Low Level Center.


As it stands 90L would be a Cape Verde style system if it were to develop fast, this type of development happened oh so very often in 2005, even with the LLC racing a little ahead of the convection.

That's the only thing that seems Deja Vu to me.

[weatherman21]

MeteoSat Visible Satellite at 18Z Today:


MeteoSat IR at 18Z:


Sea Surface Temps in Fahrenheit from 0Z Friday Night:

[WindRunner]

Iris was nearly a category 5 hurricane

Dont include that with the list

Chantal and Helene were completely different setups with the LLC ahead of the convection, not lagging behind

Oopsy daisy... I meant the LLC outrunning convection, not the other way around.

It may be under easterly shear right now but I suspect that may change.

<weenietalk>At least the GFS QPF output implies that the LLC outruns the convection.</weenietalk>

I should've specified, I meant this would not become a strong hurricane until it gets near landfall. Excluding the last few hours, Iris had problems with the low levels from its birth. Obviously the GFS has issues with upper air forecasts, but I can't argue against persistance from what's been happening this year.

Please, please don't put too much stock in the QPF . . . especially in data-sparse areas like this . . . though you probably know that.

Of course things will be far more favorable near land and it probably will have an easier time strengthening in the environment 4-5 days in front of it. Like I posted in the previous thread, the 00z HWRF took it to 948/110kts at 126hours, and there was a 12mb drop in the last 12 hours of that run. Unfortunately, the NCEP website doesn't post invest runs of the GHM or HWRF, so I haven't seen the 12z run. I would assume it is similar to its 00z run as it's based off the GFS and there isn't much change between the 00z and 12z GFS . . . but I digress. Point is, most of the models do agree with a later intensification of the storm, and that seems to be the most logical choice right now.

[Geordie.NCL]

NHC is rather optimistic about this developing "later today or tomorrow".

The 205pm TWD has indicated that the low level circulation is partially exposed to the east ... does that mean there is not closed circulation?

The longer it takes to form the greater the potential threat to the Caribbean - unless a weakness develops in the ridge. It is worrisome, that the models are so closely clustered. This is not normal behaviour so early ...

Geordie

[Weatherfreak000]

This period of extended disorganization seems to conclude the GFS might indeed be onto something.

Probably just by sheer luck, the western trek through the Caribbean seems to me to be just about on the money.

At least, that's been the most likely thing to happen as of right now.

[bvigal]

Been away from computer all day.

I see SSD still doesn't even MENTION this invest, after a full 24hours! Have they really thought, for a whole day, that it never looked worth even a "too weak"? They are still updating other basins, so they didn't take the weekend off!

Am I to gather we now have a circulation detached from the convection? I'm trying to run the eumetsat loop, the 'unreferenced blob' in a sea of no measurements or scale,wiggling back and forth - really can't detect any circulation. Still think all this is too much for coincidence. Either Met9 sat data isn't disseminating properly, or NOAA doesn't want us looking at 90L.

Wait! Maybe 90L is just an elaborate exercise, not real at all....

[Opal storm]

The last few pages of this thread representing chaos and panic over the possibility of this NOT developing really reveals that 90% of this board still has a 2005 mindset. That everything must develop immediatly or its a dud. Seriously, we all need a reload of patience.

[RL3AO]

Been away from computer all day.

I see SSD still doesn't even MENTION this invest, after a full 24hours! Have they really thought, for a whole day, that it never looked worth even a "too weak"? They are still updating other basins, so they didn't take the weekend off!

Can't put a floater on it until 30W

[ConvergenceZone]

OK, I think I've calmed down. I had to get off 90L for 5 minutes. I think we all need just to take a short break from it this afternoon while development is not imminent. It's going to be a long week...

You are right,Development is halted now,but down the road,conditions may be better for it to go ahead and turn into a TD and more.I would not mind if it stays as an open wave as it moves thru the Caribbean,thank you very much

With all my skeptism and as poorly as it looks, I still think that by Wednesday or Thursday it still has the chance to be a TD if it can get its act together again......

[bvigal]

Been away from computer all day.

I see SSD still doesn't even MENTION this invest, after a full 24hours! Have they really thought, for a whole day, that it never looked worth even a "too weak"? They are still updating other basins, so they didn't take the weekend off!

Can't put a floater on it until 30W

SSD Position/intensity page I mentioned, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html, is operation, just IGNORING 90L.

[RL3AO]

SSD Position/intensity page I mentioned, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html, is operation, just IGNORING 90L.

So you think its a test?