Area of convection (Former 92L)

[Pearl River]

ExBailbonds wrote

Pearl River wrote:
I HATE computers.



You might try cleaning the java console.

I have cleared everything. The goofy thing about it is the loop is correct, it's just the single image keeps bringing me to a blob off the Mexican coast on Aug 7 1145 utc.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New Canadian available on FSU experiemntal page. When even the Canadian shows nothing big for the next 6 days, you know it is going to be quiet.

[seaswing]

Do you think this will track further North up to central and ncentral FL? we are parched up here?

Seas

Anyone have an opinion? our mets say nothing about this and say only a 30% chance of showers. Temps have been 97 with heat index of 105 to 115 everyday! no rain in almost two weeks! this is way too hot even for Florida

[ExBailbonds]

Do you think this will track further North up to central and ncentral FL? we are parched up here?

Seas

Anyone have an opinion? our mets say nothing about this and say only a 30% chance of showers. Temps have been 97 with heat index of 105 to 115 everyday! no rain in almost two weeks! this is way too hot even for Florida

Not likly its heading wsw at the moment

[seaswing]

Do you think this will track further North up to central and ncentral FL? we are parched up here?

Seas

Anyone have an opinion? our mets say nothing about this and say only a 30% chance of showers. Temps have been 97 with heat index of 105 to 115 everyday! no rain in almost two weeks! this is way too hot even for Florida

Not likly its heading wsw at the moment

DAMN!

[hiflyer]

popcorn showers coming over sofla now...here and there with majority of the wave looking to cut south thru the strait and enjoy those warmer sst's down there....does look like eyw will get a little more of an event that sofla will from this. noticing a smoke plume west of MIA just out in the glades...radar showing it also...suspect a little vegetation fire out there,

[alienstorm]

LLC forming NNE of Abaco Island

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[HURAKAN]

Looks bad.

[Portastorm]

TPC in its 2 p.m. discussion doesn't think there is a LLC yet:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 30N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE HAS SHOWED UP WELL IN RECENT QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES.
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THAT THE FOCUS OF THE LOW LEVEL
TURNING IS JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
71W-78W. BAHAMAS METAR DATA TO THE S OF THIS TURNING ARE STILL
SHOWING LIGHT NE TO E WINDS...SO AM STILL NOT CONVINCED THERE IS
A CLOSED SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE.

[Ed Mahmoud]

LLC forming NNE of Abaco Island

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

This link might work better, and I don't see it.

[cpdaman]

well that possible turning around 27 77 may be a llc forming, i can't tell YET

but the thing is cruising just south of due west and will be over West Palm Beeatch/Jupiter around 9 pm

so it has about 6 hours to do something if it is anything

on a side not i was just booted of the beach in boca due to a nasty storm that came onshore definitly squally weather moving in gusts to 25

[vaffie]

I can see at least two weak rotations on visible satellite--one north of Abaco Island with slowly increasing convection and the other one without any convection northwest of San Salvador.

[cpdaman]

that san salvador rotation seems to have lost what little energy it had /maybe transferred it nw to other spin just north of abaco

should be watched for next 6 hours, mabe a depression could form

at least this thing is moving swiftly

on second thought the san salvador spin got sheared to death and that ull is large and difficult for me to pick out where it's influence ends

[gatorcane]

curiously there does seem to be a spin north of Abaco Island could something be starting to form-- will have to wait until the GOM to really get going if at all.

[vaffie]

The latest WRF model is showing a very weak closed low drifting off the coast of Louisiana and Texas from 90-126 hours (Sunday to Tuesday).

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

Folks look at the LLC trying to form north of Abaco (northern Bahamas). It's racing off to the west towards Jupiter in Palm Beach County...good thing this thing doesn't have much real estate left in front of it...

coincidentally its starting to get more organized right when Dean is on land and weakening..I still think Dean had something to do with this not developing...

You can see it here
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[vaffie]

It's looking better by the half-hour. Moving quite fast into Florida. Will likely exit Florida fairly unscathed tonight or early tomorrow. May definitely be something to watch in the Gulf over the next three-five days.

[gatorcane]

Conditions are becoming more and more favorable for this wave has it will emerge into the eastern GOM sometime tomorrow...

[sfwx]

Part of the AFD from today.....................


000
FXUS62 KMLB 221849
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
250 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

.DISCUSSION...



THU-FRI ...THE EASTERLY WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL APPROACH THE SE FL AND TREASURE COAST BY THURSDAY AFTN. THE GFS
MOVES AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS S FL THROUGH THE DAY RATHER QUICKLY WITH A
SLOWER SOLUTION FROM THE NAM MODEL WHICH SPINS UP A LOW LVL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT APPROACHES SE FL THU NIGHT. WILL TREND TWD
THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH WILL INCREASE DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WAVE MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS AND THE TREASURE COAST ON THU
AND THEN SLOWLY ENVELOPING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FL ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE LOW LVL TROUGH AXIS INTO FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE LOWEST POPS
AROUND 30 PCT ACROSS SECTIONS NORTH OF ORLANDO TO AND 40/50 PCT RAIN
CHANCES FOR SRN SECTIONS ON THU AND THEN AROUND 40 PCT MOST AREAS ON
FRI. ANY RAINFALL ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WOULD BE WELCOME WITH ORLANDO
INTL ARPT LOGGING 20 DAYS WITHOUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL.

[vaffie]

Tomorrow may end up being interesting. My estimate is that this circulation center will "make landfall" at about 8-9 pm tonight and cross into the Gulf by around 3-5 am. Melbourne AFD is talking about the whole wave.