Strong Wave with low in Eastern Atlantic

[Meso]

Hrm... 12z CMC is interesting.It looks like the 2 waves may combine or,at least their convection.But it shows the system developing within 42 hours,bit quicker than the GFS.Maybe the CMC picks up on the first wave?



FIIIISH


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Animated run

[KWT]

Yep it does look like the CMC develops the first wave coming off right now. also it is a fish on this run and its not really surprising given how the high pressur ein the Atlantic decays and center sover n.Atlantic...also would mean the central Atlantic will beocme more favorable then it is currently with less stable air outside the first 10 degrees of Africa.

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 12.6N 29.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 09.09.2007 12.6N 29.0W WEAK

00UTC 10.09.2007 13.3N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.09.2007 14.1N 31.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.09.2007 14.7N 32.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 11.09.2007 15.2N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.09.2007 17.0N 35.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.09.2007 18.6N 35.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


12z UKMET goes fishing for the first wave.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TWD 2:05pm

TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ON THE 12Z ANALYSIS NEAR THE COAST
OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 17N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 10-15
KT. THIS WAVE HAS GOOD WWD CONTINUITY OVER THE CONTINENT WHEN
LOOKING AT MET-9 SATELLITE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS. IN ADDITION...THE
UW-CIMSS TPW ANIMATION DEPICTS MOISTENING NEAR THE AFRICAN COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ANALYZED FEATURE. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A
FAIR AMOUNT OF BROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING...WHICH WAS
MOSTLY USED TO PLACE THE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS ALSO MORE
ACTIVE...IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...THAN THE OTHERS CURRENTLY IN
THE ATLC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LINEAR IN
STRUCTURE ALIGNED IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N-8N E OF 29W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

$$
CANGIALOSI

[windstorm99]

Looks fairly well organized...Way to early to be saying this will be a fish.

[cycloneye]

Looks fairly well organized...Way to early to be saying this will be a fish.

Agree to some extent.However,it will not be a Dean/Felix type strait west track as this time,troughs are more noticeble in the Central Atlantic than a huge subtropical ridge.But as the saying says,never say never in the tropics.

[KWT]

Maybe windstorm but once again as i've said countless times now nearly all the models bring in a pretty decent weakness around 96hrs that the ssytem will lift NW into, quite a few models have the mid-Atlantic low go sub-1000mbs and if its anything close toas strong as that it'll almost certainly allow the system to become a fish.

[Derek Ortt]

the models were also in good agreement with a hurricane striking the east Coast

They were also in good agreement with Dean impacting the NE Caribbean

[Gustywind]

In other terms what does it mean Derek Ortt , What is your thouhts concerning the futur path off this feature?

[Meso]

I doubt there is much doubt to a track if it should develop.. Looking at the models there is almost NO ridge to hold it from turning north early.There is an intensifying low in the north atlantic which is leaving huge weakness in terms of ridge strength.And it looks to last for a while.I personally doubt a system developing in the next 3 days (if it were to happen) would make anything but a NW movement

[Derek Ortt]

I'd like to see signs of the weakness before committing one way or an other

I learned from the fiasco the EC system is turning out to be

[windstorm99]

I'd like to see signs of the weakness before committing one way or an other

I learned from the fiasco the EC system is turning out to be

Thats what ive been trying to say.....No signs of that weakness for now and all options are possible from a fish to a movement continued to the west.

[KWT]

Well funny you should say that, the low pressure that is going to cause the weakness is very much present at the moment, here ar ethe fax charts from the UK met office, note these are both Human interpetation and model:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/bracka.gif

1014mbs low at the SW is the one that develops intothe low that causes the weakness.
The only question I have is will the low get far enough north before the weakness starts to close up because it may be forced back WNW if a new high forms by 168-240hrs.

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET Animation

Develops it,and goes fishing.

[alienstorm]

If you notice at the end of the cycle the weakness starts filling up and the ridge extends to the east coast. It looks like it may head northwest for a period and then possibly turn back to the w or wnw.

[cycloneye]

Parts of the eastern Atlantic has a good probability chance of something forming according to the chart.

[Meso]

Interesting,it appears even the wave behind it that I liked is emerging off the coast now at a more northerly area.Makes me think maybe it is the one the CMC develops too.

[perk]

12z UKMET Animation

Develops it,and goes fishing.

After watching that run, i did'nt conclude that system is going fishing.I saw the ridge break down and fill back in.

[KWT]

Well the weaknes sis stil lthere by 144hrs though granted it is filling in tohugh by that point its near 20N and would mean a fish would be quite likely anyway in the end unless we saw the super ridge re-form again and the upper weakness on both the GFS and ECM is still present through 168rs. It would be a big askfor a system to travel from 37W at 20N to the states though not impossible.

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS Animation

NOGAPS does not develop it in this run.Ridge looks filled.