Depression to form in GOM??

[flwxwatcher]

Ronjon.. Agree the SE Gulf is an area to watch, I saw the 06Z GFS run also and it hinted at something being brought to the FL Panhandle. While upper level conditions are not ideal at the moment they may get better in the Eastern Gulf in a couple Days.. Time will tell

[KatDaddy]

I can see some rotation in the SE GOM very near the Yucatan Channel. I cant tell is its mid level or lower from VIS satellite

[Sanibel]

Possible cyclonic turning near 23N-86W. This is a formation hot spot right over the Loop Current. Or could be a synoptic eddy. Could keep Gabrielle down or vice versa.

[Portastorm]

Based on satellite, agree on the 23N-86w spotting. Will be curious to see if the convection increases and persists.

For those wanting a little action in the Western GOM, this better develop as I suspect the bulk of the attention will soon shift to the central and eastern GOM. We have not one but two cold fronts progged to drop well into south Texas and the Gulf coastline in the next week. That means the westerlies will soon take charge and become the more dominant weather feature for the WGOM.

[canetracker]

I see the possible cyclonic turning too that Sanibel mentioned. It is very near the loop current.

Tropical Cyclone Intestification is favorable and becoming more favorable in 72 hrs:
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif
Notice the really warm SST's, especially along Louisiana all the way down to southern Florida
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg

[ronjon]

I see the 12Z CMC has latched on to GOM development - surprise, surprise.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007090812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Portastorm]

I see the 12Z CMC has latched on to GOM development - surprise, surprise.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007090812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Indeed! The "Crazy Uncle" Canadian develops a tropical cyclone that appears to make landfall at Galveston, then gets picked up by the full trough moving west to east across the nation's midsection. Interesting.

[lrak]

that looks really close to Corpus, all these storms and waves have been traveling West. This will be the one to finally make that terrible turn?

[srainhoutx]

I see the 12Z CMC has latched on to GOM development - surprise, surprise.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007090812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

If I recall correctly, CMC sniffed out TS Erin in the early stages when a lot of folks said noting would happen. Should be interesting to watch in the next few days.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the CMC scenario is very plausible. No, I am not saying this because I live in Texas, but rather I am saying this because I think a move west and then a turn more north and east is very likely with this system if it develops. We very well could be looking at a multi-state threat out of this...which would be a very interesting scenario if it actually plays out.

[flwxwatcher]

I think the CMC scenario is very plausible. No, I am not saying this because I live in Texas, but rather I am saying this because I think a move west and then a turn more north and east is very likely with this system if it develops. We very well could be looking at a multi-state threat out of this...which would be a very interesting scenario if it actually plays out.

I have to agree with on this . but the CMC has a tendency of moving things too fast and developing things too quickly, so take that track and slow it down and you could have a track that stays in the Gulf and does threaten a multi state area along the Gulf Coast. Of course, I am putting the Cart way ahead of the Horse lol. first lets see if something does develop.
I do think we need to watch this area though.

[perk]

I think the CMC scenario is very plausible. No, I am not saying this because I live in Texas, but rather I am saying this because I think a move west and then a turn more north and east is very likely with this system if it develops. We very well could be looking at a multi-state threat out of this...which would be a very interesting scenario if it actually plays out.

I don't think the CMC's run is out of line, if it develops. Hey makes me think of that old saying (even a blind squirrel will evenually find a nut).

[caneman]

If there is anything to develop here I believe it may well becoming from the NW Caribb. just below Cuba and into the channel.

[Sanibel]

There's a synoptic mess down there right now. That linear outflow boundary going east to west is significant of bad conditions with this one.

[jasons2k]

Re: CMC - We'll see. Notice it takes Gabrielle a bit west of where it will likely go, so I question this run.

[Brent]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GABRIELLE LOCATED ABOUT 185 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CUBA AND
ADJACENT WATERS WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Ptarmigan]

I see the 12Z CMC has latched on to GOM development - surprise, surprise.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007090812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Hmmm, something could be brewing the Gulf of Mexico. Bears watching for sure. The CMC model got it right with Erin. Whatever happens, it will give rain.

[Frank P]

been watching it since early this am... still has some rotation to it... lots of disorganized convection in the south GOM and west Car..... you can see the low level clouds racing from the south to the north in the west Car south of Cuba via the vis sat loop on high speed..... if it has a broad center its perhaps north of the Yucatan... still has a lot of shear pounding it but it is atm being persistent.. which is key for development if it can hang around long enough for conditions to improve... gonna take some time regardless... but it's that time of the year when you expected things to happen......

"bear" watch continues for GOM... my SWAG for further development would be < 30% right now... lets see what it does tonight...

[JonathanBelles]

It has been cloudy here all day.

[attallaman]

been watching it since early this am... still has some rotation to it... lots of disorganized convection in the south GOM and west Car..... you can see the low level clouds racing from the south to the north in the west Car south of Cuba via the vis sat loop on high speed..... if it has a broad center its perhaps north of the Yucatan... still has a lot of shear pounding it but it is atm being persistent.. which is key for development if it can hang around long enough for conditions to improve... gonna take some time regardless... but it's that time of the year when you expected things to happen......

"bear" watch continues for GOM... my SWAG for further development would be < 30% right now... lets see what it does tonight...

SWAG means what?