Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[skysummit]

The 12z made landfall just north of Tampa...

Nogaps @ 48 hours:

[ronjon]

As has been noted, the GFS is really jumping on the caribbean development. I hope for my sake that this is not reality (storm goes right off my back porch). I agree, EWG, the position of the ULL and 500 mb ridge will be the key here as it always is. I fully expect to see the track jump around some. My main worry is some sort of rapid intensification south of Cuba on day 4 or 5. Heat potential is extreme there and shear is forecast to be non-existent in the caribbean in 4-5 days.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The 12z made landfall just north of Tampa...

Nogaps @ 48 hours:

That would be Awesome if it landfalls as no stronger
than a 50 mph TS!!!

My adrenaline is getting excited. Finally some
exciting homebrew- even better if it heads
towards me!!!

[skysummit]

Then if it would happen to go over the central gulf, it would run right over the loop current. If it went over to the western gulf, it would run over a portion of the loop current, plus a lot more water.

This is not good no matter how it's shaping up.

[skysummit]

That would be Awesome if it landfalls as no stronger
than a 50 mph TS!!!

My adrenaline is getting excited. Finally some
exciting homebrew- even better if it heads
towards me!!!

You better watch what you ask for because if something did form, it would likely be much higher than 50mph.....MUCH higher.

[cycloneye]

Remember Tampa Bay,that GFS was with a 1008 low while Felix was a cat 5,so intensity in the runs is not good.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hope and pray that nobody gets hurt.
Whenever the big storms came near land I was always
praying and saying God please protect the people in the path.

I don't want people to have damage- that's just horrible.

I just will pray that this comes No stronger than as a weak tropical system and
pray that the ULL causes heavy shear over it like it
did with Barry in June so that barry went from 60 to
30 mph at landfall...

I know it's wishfull thinking....
like weak ts's are fun-- but I will hope/pray that it
doesn't go any higher.

[Vortex]

This storm is going to have alot to work with..Not only VERY high oceanic heat content and VERY low shear values(5 days) but also energy rotating in from the east and north..Indication are this could be a very large storm in terms of over all diameter

[ronjon]

More likely that the ULL will aid in outflow if a strong tropical cyclone moves to the north while east of the ULL. But this hasn't even formed yet and a lot of variables will have to come into play for this to happen. On the other hand, it's going to be in our backyard, assuming the models are correct, in 5 days. I think I'll be glued even more to Storm2K than normal over the next week - oh boy, I can hear the wife complaining even more now.

[Vortex]

Nogaps per H+84 slowly organizing and moving NNW

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=084

[flwxwatcher]

I see the 12Z GFS is more bullish on the Caribbean system and you can see the differences on how it handles the upper trough and 500 mb features from previous runs One thing also, it is interesting to see the EURO in the 3-5 day range bringing a typhoon from the East China Sea then recurving it across Korea and the Sea of Japan. Lets see if this teleconnects in anyway to our possible Caribbean system next week.

[Vortex]

Nogaps..H+96 Intensifying and moving NNW towards central/west Cuba..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=096

[Vortex]

Nogaps H-108 approaching central Cuba..


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=108

[Vortex]

Nogaps H-120 over central cuba appraching the Florida Keys


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... rp&tau=120

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

ok now this is starting to scare me. My house is 9 feet
above sea level and only 5 feet above the water
level in the canal in my backyard that connects to
tampa bay.....

Anything higher than a 50 mph TS and my streets
flood from tidal surge...

[ronjon]

12Z CMC now develops a cyclone but moves it west into Nic - take a look what it does off the east coast of FL and with Ingrid.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091512&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have a question
The models are developing this really aggresively
but I don't see any tropical waves near the SW caribbean
except for a small blob near south america:
What excatly are they developing?

[Vortex]

Appears monsoon trough lifts north aided by the tropical wave in the central carribean which spawns low pressure near 12/78w...Organization should begin on sunday

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So that approximately linear region of convection near
south america is the monsoon trough and that will
interact with the tropical wave currently
in the eastern caribbean to develop a low?

Interesting...2 features combining.

[jhamps10]

I have a question
The models are developing this really aggresively
but I don't see any tropical waves near the SW caribbean
except for a small blob near south america:
What excatly are they developing?

it's developing the blob near central america, that does have some turning with it right now.

in a word to your 2nd question, Yes.