Western Caribbean Disturbance

[perk]

The lowest pressure in the northwestern Caribbean was reported in the last hour by a ship located at 19.7N, 82.0W at 1011 mb and it's reporting moderately fast falling pressures and a 19 knot southeast wind. This and other details would seem to indicate that a surface circulation is forming at approximately 18.7N, 83W or a few miles east of where the strongest convection in the area has formed in the last hour.

At first glance, I kinda wondered what you were looking at vaffie ... but after a few minutes with the NASA satellite loop, I do see some kind of "swirl" developing in that area. Who knows? Could be the start of something.

Portastorm after your post i took a close look, and i think vaffie may be on to something.

[jabman98]

Local met here in Houston just made a big deal of this area on his forecast. Says could be an issue early next week.

that wouldn't be the met on channel 2 would it?

No, it was Tim Heller on Channel 13. Just had it on while doing something else - wasn't paying that close of attention to it.

[cycloneye]

8:05 PM EDT Discussion from TPC.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PERSISTS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN GENERALLY W OF 76W. VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SPIN TO THE CLOUDS NEAR 17N81W...THOUGH THIS
IS LIKELY MID-LEVEL WHEN COMPARED TO THE SFC OBSERVATIONS IN THE
REGION. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A SFC BOUNDARY BUT THIS IS
ANALYZED TO THE W OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG 86W/87W FROM
13N-21N... AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS POSITION. A LARGE
CONTRIBUTING COMPONENT IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXTENSIVE SWLY
FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND AN UPPER
HIGH OVER NICARAGUA IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME OF THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY WHICH CURRENTLY IS OVER CUBA. A FEW MODELS
SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...AT THE MOMENT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AND SURFACES PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING SO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

[attallaman]

Did I hear Steve Lyons just say that this thing will works it way to Tx/La border. What kind of storm do you think this will turn in to.

I heard Steve Lyons mention it this afternoon during a TWC tropical updates. He said something to the effect that we need to closely monitor this area because it could eventually threaten the TX/LA coastlines within 72 hours.

[jhamps10]

well looks like this one will be Jerry (should it develop of course) and at least we know this, there won't be a 5 day discussion on rather it's warm core or not.

but in all seriousness, keep an eye on this in the GOM.

[wxman57]

Much of the moisture has shot NE across Florida now. SW jet is just too strong over the NW Caribbean. Not much left to develop now. No Jerry down there.

[wxwonder12]

your not kidding about moisture across Florida at this point.

[srainhoutx]

Much of the moisture has shot NE across Florida now. SW jet is just too strong over the NW Caribbean. Not much left to develop now. No Jerry down there.

Thanks wxman57, you made my day!

[cycloneye]

10:30 PM TWO

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACES PRESSURES
ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Oh good...the moisture got sucked over
Lake Ockeechobee and S. FL. Good.
Finally a heavy rain event to fill up the lake.

FINALLY Rain over Lake Ockeechobee!!! Thank you nature!!!!

[attallaman]

Much of the moisture has shot NE across Florida now. SW jet is just too strong over the NW Caribbean. Not much left to develop now. No Jerry down there.

So was Dr. Lyons on TWC referring to something else when he said on the air several times today to keep an eye on the Caribbean Sea for a band of showers moving out of the Caribbean Sea past the Yucatan(sp?) peninsula and eventually entering the GOM and once this band of showers does enter the GOM it might possibly pose a threat to the TX/LA coastline region within the next 72 hours?

[wxman57]

Much of the moisture has shot NE across Florida now. SW jet is just too strong over the NW Caribbean. Not much left to develop now. No Jerry down there.

So was Dr. Lyons on TWC referring to something else when he said on the air several times today to keep an eye on the Caribbean Sea for a band of showers moving out of the Caribbean Sea past the Yucatan(sp?) peninsula and eventually entering the GOM and once this band of showers does enter the GOM it might possibly pose a threat to the TX/LA coastline region within the next 72 hours?

No, that's the same area of storms, but most of the squalls raced northeastward up the jet core in the last 6 hours. There's still a band of moisture, and it will stream northward into the Gulf as the upper low moves west over the weekend, but it'll be embedded in a southerly jet of 35-45 kts, so development chances are very low. Could bring rain to TX/LA by Monday. So the threat is from thunderstorms/rain, not a hurricane.

[jhamps10]

12 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012s.gif

18 hours http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_018s.gif

[jhamps10]

30
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030s.gif

36:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036s.gif

[jhamps10]

42:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042s.gif

48:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048s.gif

54:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054s.gif

[jhamps10]

66:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066s.gif

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, the Lake Okeechobee region has received maximum one-hour doppler totals near ~0.38 inches. That's relatively unimpressive when you consider the scope of the lake's water table drought. Additionally, it isn't replenishing the Kissimmee River basin. That factor should inhibit gains for the lake's level. Every drop helps our situation, but it will not provide sufficient long-term relief into the dry season, in my opinion.

[jhamps10]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078s.gif

[jhamps10]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090s.gif

finally makes landfall near galveston.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Doesn't look too impressive.

Not a 'season cancel', but a 'season reprieve', perhaps, until the famous La Niña season October Caribbean storm threatens the Cnetral or Eastern Gulf.