Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[weathaguyry]

I mean, our numbers so far are 5/2/0, lacking a bit on ACE, but not too badly, so I think that 15/7/2 would be a pretty fair estimate on numbers for the season

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/763766754149408772

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/763774319977639936

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/browa ... story.html

Hold up there on the season cancel post folks...

SFT

[Siker]

Interesting that NOAA mentions increased Caribbean shear due to Pacific activity as a potential negative, as shear there has largely been below average over the past two months (which obviously includes during the Pacific's outbreak). I don't know how climatological Pacific tracks play into this, such that the Pacific's effect on the Caribbean might increase as the season progresses.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why did NOAA increase their numbers? Not sure I see a reason why to increase when it seems like many experts are lowering expectations. Does NOAA have a good track record as far as predictions go?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Why did NOAA increase their numbers? Not sure I see a reason why to increase when it seems like many experts are lowering expectations. Does NOAA have a good track record as far as predictions go?

They increased their numbers because the Atlantic is more favorable than it's been in years (since 2011). Just because it's slow now doesn't mean it will remain slow.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Why did NOAA increase their numbers? Not sure I see a reason why to increase when it seems like many experts are lowering expectations. Does NOAA have a good track record as far as predictions go?

They increased their numbers because the Atlantic is more favorable than it's been in years (since 2011). Just because it's slow now doesn't mean it will remain slow.

I was looking for reasons why specifically. Found the link but seems like the same stuff other experts are saying minus the uptick in numbers. Maybe Earl has something to deal with it.

[TheStormExpert]

Snippet from the article above.

We've raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Cente

Hasn't there been stronger Easterly Trade Winds so far this season which is why Earl struggled to develop before the Western Caribbean.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Snippet from the article above.

We've raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Cente

Hasn't there been stronger Easterly Trade Winds so far this season which is why Earl struggled to develop before the Western Caribbean.

Trade winds are always fast across the central Atlantic into the central Caribbean during July, August, and September. Them being fast doesn't mean they can't also be anomalously weaker. This is why we rarely see development east of Jamaica in the Caribbean, except in October and November when trades slow. Storms have to be well established to intensify in what we call the 'dead zone'.

[Hammy]

Snippet from the article above.

We've raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Cente

Hasn't there been stronger Easterly Trade Winds so far this season which is why Earl struggled to develop before the Western Caribbean.

Trade winds are always fast across the central Atlantic into the central Caribbean during July, August, and September. Them being fast doesn't mean they can't also be anomalously weaker. This is why we rarely see development east of Jamaica in the Caribbean, except in October and November when trades slow. Storms have to be well established to intensify in what we call the 'dead zone'.

I know one thing for sure, there was quite a strong low-level westerly flow during much of the month.

[Yellow Evan]

Why did NOAA increase their numbers? Not sure I see a reason why to increase when it seems like many experts are lowering expectations. Does NOAA have a good track record as far as predictions go?

They increased their numbers because the Atlantic is more favorable than it's been in years (since 2011). Just because it's slow now doesn't mean it will remain slow.

I was looking for reasons why specifically. Found the link but seems like the same stuff other experts are saying minus the uptick in numbers. Maybe Earl has something to deal with it.

Probably because we have 5 storms and 2 hurricanes already.

[tarheelprogrammer]

They increased their numbers because the Atlantic is more favorable than it's been in years (since 2011). Just because it's slow now doesn't mean it will remain slow.

I was looking for reasons why specifically. Found the link but seems like the same stuff other experts are saying minus the uptick in numbers. Maybe Earl has something to deal with it.

Probably because we have 5 storms and 2 hurricanes already.

Fast starts do not equal active seasons though. As per Dr. Phil K there is no correlation. Plus in all honesty it is 4 storms and one hurricane for this season so far excluding the January rarity.

[tolakram]

Fast starts do not equal active seasons though. As per Dr. Phil K there is no correlation. Plus in all honesty it is 4 storms and one hurricane for this season so far excluding the January rarity.

In all honesty it's 5, you would rather not count one of them but it doesn't matter as far as records go.

It gets a little old hearing you not only harp on how the season will be a dud but then questioning experts that say otherwise. I think we all get it, we know what your opinion is. This discussion is about seasonal indicators, not arguing about what people think the rest of the season will be like.

[TheStormExpert]

Here is an interesting article from the SunSentinel concerning landfall threats and locations for this season.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/palm-beach/fl-hurricane-predictions-20160506-story.html

[psyclone]

we're going to start to get actual verdicts soon now that we're into the climo ramp up. I would give points to the slow season gang if the latter third of August is dead. that is prime season and if it yields nothing that is certainly worth something. Looking at NOAA's outlook...they're giving overwhelming odds to an average to somewhat above average season (if you sum the figures) which seems reasonable. Should that unfold we're going to have spurts of activity followed by quiet spells as we nickel and dime our way toward Halloween. It would not be at all shocking to me if we had 2 or 3 simultaneous storms at some point during early to mid September...as that often happens in average to slightly more active than normal seasons. in the interim patience is still the word of the day but it's perfectly reasonable to start getting antsy as we edge into mid August.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Fast starts do not equal active seasons though. As per Dr. Phil K there is no correlation. Plus in all honesty it is 4 storms and one hurricane for this season so far excluding the January rarity.

In all honesty it's 5, you would rather not count one of them but it doesn't matter as far as records go.

It gets a little old hearing you not only harp on how the season will be a dud but then questioning experts that say otherwise. I think we all get it, we know what your opinion is. This discussion is about seasonal indicators, not arguing about what people think the rest of the season will be like.

I have argued with no experts I simply used the opinions of experts who think adding Alex to the number of storms in a hurricane season that starts in June and ends in November is ridiculous. Have seen many experts express this view and all I said was Phil K has showed fast starts do not equal active seasons. Many people have expressed their opinions on here multiple times as well about the season will pick up soon. I have not said the season is dead nor have I said the season will see no more activity which is evident in my prediction of 5/2/1 more storms. If I was out of line by talking about future conditions/thoughts then I am confused as I thought this was the thread. If not I appologize.

[Hammy]

we're going to start to get actual verdicts soon now that we're into the climo ramp up. I would give points to the slow season gang if the latter third of August is dead. that is prime season and if it yields nothing that is certainly worth something. Looking at NOAA's outlook...they're giving overwhelming odds to an average to somewhat above average season (if you sum the figures) which seems reasonable. Should that unfold we're going to have spurts of activity followed by quiet spells as we nickel and dime our way toward Halloween. It would not be at all shocking to me if we had 2 or 3 simultaneous storms at some point during early to mid September...as that often happens in average to slightly more active than normal seasons. in the interim patience is still the word of the day but it's perfectly reasonable to start getting antsy as we edge into mid August.

This would all fall in line with a 1998-type setup, we had 4/3/1 in the last ten days of August, then Frances pretty much isolated time-wise, then the second half of September was active, with the second half being active and three of the five hurricanes all forming within a three day period.

[tolakram]

Snippet from the article above.

We've raised the numbers because some conditions now in place are indicative of a more active hurricane season, such as El Niño ending, weaker vertical wind shear and weaker trade winds over the central tropical Atlantic, and a stronger west African monsoon," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Cente

Hasn't there been stronger Easterly Trade Winds so far this season which is why Earl struggled to develop before the Western Caribbean.

Apparently not.

My advice to make this thread work better, going forward, is for everyone to make sure they have data to back up any statements. There have been a lot of inaccurate statements made this season that either can't be backed up by the actual data or are opinions presented as fact. This thread can be a valuable source of information to look back on once we are done with the season. If it ends up being dead was there a clear indicator that was missed? What if we have a hyperactive Sept, Oct? Should we have seen this coming?

Looking at the Atlantic today I certainly don't blame anyone for having trouble imagining that this season will ever get active, even at normal levels, but as it stands right now most indicators that we use are pointing to better conditions than we've seen in the past few years.

This is one glaring exception


However this does not appear to be a predictor of anything but rather a confirmation that the deep tropics are dead at the moment.

[Kazmit]

I am getting rather antsy... waiting for the season to ramp up. We might get nothing until late August, but then it should be nonstop active from there. Much like '98 and '99, this could be a very fall-centered season, with most of the activity in the later months.