2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

Tc’s could get driven into the Southeast if things don’t change.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 99168?s=21

Too early to worry about that. Like way too early.

[stormlover2013]

That’s just the pattern right now wil be changing come late July-sept

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1275103159304826882



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1280516932849074179



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1280252202196451328



 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1280492989178163200

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1280521142122565642

[Shell Mound]

http://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1280521142122565642?s=21

The analogs are quite similar to those cited in the April and June forecasts. However, the April forecast listed 1960 and 1980 as analogs, while the June update listed 2013 instead of 1966. The rest of the analogs are the same in each forecast, so the July update is the most bullish yet. Dr. Klotzbach did note that the first five tropical cyclones of 2020 collectively generated less ACE than the same sequence of storms in all but two seasons: 1988 and 2017. Of course, those seasons eventually featured hurricanes Gilbert, Joan, Harvey, Irma, and Maria, to not mention Helene and Jose. Both seasons featured clusters of landfalls over or near Mexico, Central America, Louisiana/Mississippi, and the Florida peninsula. (As an aside, the SST composite posted above matches the projected pattern fairly well: weak -PDO, weak -IOD, -VP over Africa/western IO, warm MDR/Caribbean/Gulf with “horseshoe” extending along East Coast as well, cool Gulf of Guinea, and cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña. Personally, I would give greater weight to most of the analogs but exclude 2011 and 2016 from the list, since conditions in 2020 look to be more conducive than in those two seasons.

[Steve]

Tc’s could get driven into the Southeast if things don’t change.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 99168?s=21

Too early to worry about that. Like way too early.

September 1st is 56 days away. That's exactly 8 weeks from today. /not way too early

[toad strangler]

Tc’s could get driven into the Southeast if things don’t change.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 99168?s=21

Too early to worry about that. Like way too early.

September 1st is 56 days away. That's exactly 8 weeks from today. /not way too early

When you are talking about blocking patterns I disagree. Just two weeks ago the buzz around here was a E based Azores High that would easily re-curve any and all CV systems. It was too early two weeks ago for that and it's too early now as well. Two weeks can be too early let alone 8 weeks. medium to long range steering is a frontier that hasn't been dented much.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just two weeks ago the buzz around here was a E based Azores High that would easily re-curve any and all CV systems.

I've not been buzzing around that bush in the slightest. It definitely was not the consensus on this thread either. Patterns start to bake in this time of year so realistically, 8 weeks out isnt that far away in the scheme of things.

[Steve]

Too early to worry about that. Like way too early.

September 1st is 56 days away. That's exactly 8 weeks from today. /not way too early

When you are talking about blocking patterns I disagree. Just two weeks ago the buzz around here was a E based Azores High that would easily re-curve any and all CV systems. It was too early two weeks ago for that and it's too early now as well. Two weeks can be too early let alone 8 weeks. medium to long range steering is a frontier that hasn't been dented much.

No doubt. But the specific quote said storms could get driven into the SE if things don't change.

That's certainly a reasonable supposition even though we both know that things change daily, weekly, monthly, etc. And you can't judge an Azores or Bermuda or even SW Atlantic Ridge in two months based on what it is today. However, the idea that if things don't modify/change/or whatever that there could be trouble is completely reasonable to me.

[toad strangler]

Just two weeks ago the buzz around here was a E based Azores High that would easily re-curve any and all CV systems.

I've not been buzzing around that bush in the slightest. It definitely was not the consensus on this thread either. Patterns start to bake in this time of year so realistically, 8 weeks out isnt that far away in the scheme of things.

Consensus is a rare thing and I didn't use that word. But the Azores high was a noisy topic for a spell for sure. So, I'm not keen on baked in patterns as you say. Too many cracks in them. Steering is never really baked in IMO. And 8 weeks is a LONG LONG time.

[toad strangler]

September 1st is 56 days away. That's exactly 8 weeks from today. /not way too early

When you are talking about blocking patterns I disagree. Just two weeks ago the buzz around here was a E based Azores High that would easily re-curve any and all CV systems. It was too early two weeks ago for that and it's too early now as well. Two weeks can be too early let alone 8 weeks. medium to long range steering is a frontier that hasn't been dented much.

No doubt. But the specific quote said storms could get driven into the SE if things don't change.

That's certainly a reasonable supposition even though we both know that things change daily, weekly, monthly, etc. And you can't judge an Azores or Bermuda or even SW Atlantic Ridge in two months based on what it is today. However, the idea that if things don't modify/change/or whatever that there could be trouble is completely reasonable to me.

I'll agree with this. I used the "if things don't change" angle myself in sports many times. When the NY Giants start 2-0 I would say, if things don't change they will go undefeated

[Steve]

Just two weeks ago the buzz around here was a E based Azores High that would easily re-curve any and all CV systems.

I've not been buzzing around that bush in the slightest. It definitely was not the consensus on this thread either. Patterns start to bake in this time of year so realistically, 8 weeks out isnt that far away in the scheme of things.

Consensus is a rare thing and I didn't use that word. But the Azores high was a noisy topic for a spell for sure. So, I'm not keen on baked in patterns as you say. Too many cracks in them. Steering is never really baked in IMO. And 8 weeks is a LONG LONG time.

So far, the early summer pattern has favored troughs coming into the west, occasional fronts, boundaries and upper level lows coming into the SE and washing out or lifting out being replaced by SW Atlantic ridging. Immediately, that will block 98L from going out to sea, and I'd be willing to bet that stronger ridging builds in behind it. I haven't looked at GFS or European (not out yet) at 500mb, but I'm sure they'll agree. Now whether that pattern repeats or quasi-repeats or evolves in any number of ways between now and September remains to be seen.

Yeah, looks like early July out there.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0712&fh=60

[Steve]

When you are talking about blocking patterns I disagree. Just two weeks ago the buzz around here was a E based Azores High that would easily re-curve any and all CV systems. It was too early two weeks ago for that and it's too early now as well. Two weeks can be too early let alone 8 weeks. medium to long range steering is a frontier that hasn't been dented much.

No doubt. But the specific quote said storms could get driven into the SE if things don't change.

That's certainly a reasonable supposition even though we both know that things change daily, weekly, monthly, etc. And you can't judge an Azores or Bermuda or even SW Atlantic Ridge in two months based on what it is today. However, the idea that if things don't modify/change/or whatever that there could be trouble is completely reasonable to me.

I'll agree with this. I used the "if things don't change" angle myself in sports many times. When the NY Giants start 2-0 I would say, if things don't change they will go undefeated

lmao

[cycloneye]

Hot off the press from NMME. Wow.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1280574478041440263




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1280189266103021569

[SFLcane]

Just wanted to leave what i thought are 2 very important tweets concerning the capeverde season. Al in all the Atlantic is getting primed and i would not be surprised to see 1-3 named storms form during the rest of July. The MDR should warm pretty significantly during the next 2-3 weeks.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1280194402569334784




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1280138377833189378

[toad strangler]

Interesting back and forth from Webb and Hazelton IRT a possible suppressed August and another active but short season.
Of course this is all based off what the NMME just showed.

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1280594935637565441



 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1280596087208804354



 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1280596902405439493

[Hammy]

Interesting back and forth from Webb and Hazelton IRT a possible suppressed August and another active but short season.
Of course this is all based off what the NMME just showed.

http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1280594935637565441?s=20
http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1280596087208804354?s=20
http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1280596902405439493?s=20

Looks like another late August through October season by the looks of it, and (something the CFS long range model has been hinting at as well) the first half of October could be reasonably busy in the tropical Atlantic--makes me think things are possibly trending towards having a split season similar to the NIO where we have early season activity, a July/first half of August lull, and then more activity.

[storminabox]

Just wanted to leave what i thought are 2 very important tweets concerning the capeverde season. Al in all the Atlantic is getting primed and i would not be surprised to see 1-3 named storms form during the rest of July. The MDR should warm pretty significantly during the next 2-3 weeks.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1280194402569334784

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1280138377833189378

This is a HUGE development overall!

[gatorcane]

crickets in the long-range models. If this were a 2005 or 1933, surely we would be seeing some kind of activity in the models. That said, of course the season could still end up active especially since most seasons are quiet in July anyway.

[Steve]

crickets in the long-range models. If this were a 2005 or 1933, surely we would be seeing some kind of activity in the models. That said, of course the season could still end up active especially since most seasons are quiet in July anyway.

Not sure if there will be development, but some of the globals have been hinting at a pileup in the SW Gulf maybe weekend after this or so. With the way high pressure looks to take over next week, anything down that way would be on a southern track.