2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cpv17]

The 00z Euro has a strong wave in the Gulf at day 10.

[Ubuntwo]

It's here

[DorkyMcDorkface]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/744462322679939072/ecens_2020-08-16-00Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
It's here

[crownweather]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/744462322679939072/ecens_2020-08-16-00Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
It's here

[Cpv17]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/744462322679939072/ecens_2020-08-16-00Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
It's here

https://i.ibb.co/P6J4vHw/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-12.gif

Man, that takes a cane right over my house here in southeast Texas.

[Kingarabian]

Operational Euro takes has a track over land.


can easily change

[GCANE]

The wave currently at 45W is the one that will possibly spin up in the Carib and enter the GoM next Sunday.
Some low latitude convection currently firing there.
Looks like it is trying to break away from the ITCZ.

[Steve]

GFS 06z - not much there. It’s got a little spin up right off the Yucatán. But that’s it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 81606&fh=6

[gatorcane]

GFS 06z - not much there. It’s got a little spin up right off the Yucatán. But that’s it.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 81606&fh=6

That’s because it continues keeping the EPAC active with the monsoon trough over the region and into Central America. As some of mentioned it is likely wrong with the MJO but timeframe on these storms is coming in.

[NDG]

The trend by the Euro ensembles, not good.

[Steve]

That’s right. It has continuously backed away from more potent EPAC storms. And it has gradually adjusted its 2 week MJO forecast and is closer to aligning with reality. But it has overall not been very good with recognition (localized and large scale) and therefore hasn’t been particularly useful in recognizing upcoming threats before even some of the JV models.

[NDG]

Don't look for any OTS storms that form during the next 4-10 days with a strong Bermuda ridge developing as forecasted by the ensemble models.

[1900hurricane]

As guidance continues to get a better grasp on Madden-Julian, I am fully expecting the uptick in impactful solutions to continue.

[aspen]

I wake up, look at this thread, and find that the ensembles have gone nuclear with a ton of members showing at least a Cat 1-2 near the Greater Antilles and/or heading into the Gulf within the next 10 days, and the second AEW has also been marked by the NHC. The big burst in activity we’ve been anticipating is almost here.

[northjaxpro]

I wake up, look at this thread, and find that the ensembles have gone nuclear with a ton of members showing at least a Cat 1-2 near the Greater Antilles and/or heading into the Gulf within the next 10 days, and the second AEW has also been marked by the NHC. The big burst in activity we’ve been anticipating is almost here.

Yes, it is only beginning. We haven't seen nothing yet.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Most of the better MJO models have pretty high amplitude Phase 1 moving to 2. The Euro is faster to Phase 2 so that might be why it is seeing more activity

[SFLcane]

The trend by the Euro ensembles, not good.

https://i.imgur.com/V5q1EyO.gif

Definitely not a good trend!

[SFLcane]

Don't look for any OTS storms that form during the next 4-10 days with a strong Bermuda ridge developing as forecasted by the ensemble models.

https://i.imgur.com/hddj34v.gif
https://i.imgur.com/sRxxvIT.gif
https://i.imgur.com/cXRkbpu.gif

But, but, but I thought there was going to be a huge trof?

[StormPyrate]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/744462322679939072/ecens_2020-08-16-00Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
It's here

https://i.ibb.co/P6J4vHw/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-12.gif

That is a cool product, where do you find that?

[AutoPenalti]

So I guess we can throw the GFS solutions out the window.