Rita Recon Reports
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i'm confused, i thought pressures normally keep rising until ERWC is complete. If we are at 911mb now and that outer eyewall still has some contracting to do (for reference, not to long ago the outer eyewall was approx. 50 miles in diameter where the inner eyewall was only 20 mile wide, so there is potentially 30 miles more of contracting to take place) Rita could go
Last edited by jpigott on Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: h
Dave C wrote:I wonder if Derek and John Can. are on these flights out there now, what an awesome sight it must be in a record breaking storms eye.
"The latest recon report from the NOAA 43 in which Derek Ortt is flying on today was an extrapolated pressure of 913 mb and flight level winds of near 133 KT in the NW quad, these winds would suggest category 3 status, but based upon the low pressure and because the strongest winds may not have been sampled I will set the intensity at 130 KT, a strong category 4 storm."
Source: NWHHC
Best regards and good luck from The Netherlands.
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bigmoney755
086
URNT12 KNHC 222131
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/21:20:40Z
B. 25 deg 53 min N
089 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2337 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 324 deg 102 kt
G. 222 deg 022 nm
H. 913 mb...dropsonde measurement
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. CO16/41
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 07
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z
URNT12 KNHC 222131
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/21:20:40Z
B. 25 deg 53 min N
089 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2337 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 324 deg 102 kt
G. 222 deg 022 nm
H. 913 mb...dropsonde measurement
I. 10 C/ 3049 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. CO16/41
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 07
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 19:19:30 Z
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milankovitch
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000
URNT12 KNHC 222107Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2043Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
89 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2320 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 124 DEG 123 KT
G. 033 DEG 12 NM
H. 911 MB
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 46
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING
URNT12 KNHC 222107Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2043Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
89 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2320 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 124 DEG 123 KT
G. 033 DEG 12 NM
H. 911 MB
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 46
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING
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milankovitch wrote:000
URNT12 KNHC 222107Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2043Z
B. 25 DEG 50 MIN N
89 DEG 25 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2320 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 124 DEG 123 KT
G. 033 DEG 12 NM
H. 911 MB
I. 12 C/ 3054 M
J. 19 C/ 3064 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C015-40
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 46
MAX FL WIND 133 KT NW QUAD 1910Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION
OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTING
Thats an old one. The 913 is more recent.
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I would expect that the pressure is nearer to 911mb due to the fact she is obviously trying to deepen some more. Her appearence on satellite is very similar to yesterday's. I'd expect the winds to increase in the next few hours and for Rita to regain Cat 5 status. Lets hope that if she does make it, the NHC acknowledges that and doesnt cut an excuse to say otherwise. I wasnt to impressed with their 5pm discussion either. Yea sure, she weakened alittle today due to an ERC and a cool eddy. But that doesnt mean she's done strengthening. That, IMO is what the NHC is trying to say. Anyways, they've done an excellent job up until then.
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Flight-level data from NOAA-2:
211400 2625 08940 5787 -0772 075108 +189 +171 077110 999 999
211500 2621 08943 5821 -0847 067111 +187 +169 068116 075 013
211600 2617 08943 5982 -0984 068119 +188 +171 068124 081 014
211700 2614 08941 6159 -1143 066124 +181 +171 065131 088 018
211800 2612 08940 6397 -1310 072131 +184 +179 075135 090 009
211900 2609 08938 6513 -1458 073124 +191 +183 077130 091 008
212000 2607 08936 6633 -1669 069126 +187 +180 068129 095 030
212100 2604 08935 6924 -1989 070126 +187 +184 068132 097 040
212200 2601 08933 7266 -2300 070078 +207 +193 070096 079 005
Max. FL winds of 135 knots.
211400 2625 08940 5787 -0772 075108 +189 +171 077110 999 999
211500 2621 08943 5821 -0847 067111 +187 +169 068116 075 013
211600 2617 08943 5982 -0984 068119 +188 +171 068124 081 014
211700 2614 08941 6159 -1143 066124 +181 +171 065131 088 018
211800 2612 08940 6397 -1310 072131 +184 +179 075135 090 009
211900 2609 08938 6513 -1458 073124 +191 +183 077130 091 008
212000 2607 08936 6633 -1669 069126 +187 +180 068129 095 030
212100 2604 08935 6924 -1989 070126 +187 +184 068132 097 040
212200 2601 08933 7266 -2300 070078 +207 +193 070096 079 005
Max. FL winds of 135 knots.
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mvtrucking
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 698
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jul 09, 2005 10:01 am
- Location: Monroe,La
I wasn't expecting them to call her a Catagory 5 yet
I sure hope not.
but I was upset that they NHC didn't address the EWRC
from 5pm NHC discussion:
Rita is going trough the weakening phase of an eyewall replacement
cycle and data from the NOAA reconnaissance plane indicate that
winds have decreased to 125 knots
and that it's done strengthening basically
from 5pm NHC discussion:
The hurricane is forecast to move over another
warm eddy during the next 12 to 24 hours and there is some chance
that Rita could regain some intensity
Who are they trying to fool at this point?
those that cant read?
Last edited by djtil on Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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djtil, if you read the NHC discussion at 5pm they bring up the fact she could restrengthen in the next 12-24 hours...but then go on to say"THE
BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL." Its pretty obvious, even to my non-professional self, theres at least a little bit of re-intensifcation going on. Again, Im not bashing you or the NHC but there seems to be a bit of a contradiction in their discussion. I doubt a small amount of shear will compensate for her intensification.
BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL." Its pretty obvious, even to my non-professional self, theres at least a little bit of re-intensifcation going on. Again, Im not bashing you or the NHC but there seems to be a bit of a contradiction in their discussion. I doubt a small amount of shear will compensate for her intensification.
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the 125kts was liberal based based on current recon (mentioned in the discussion)...they were saying...we will keep it at 125 to allow for the short term possibility of strengthening (basically already factoring in 12 hour strengthening)........and then forecast weakening (likely) in the longer term before landfall.
the nhc doesnt sit back and cheerlead all storms in every situation....and bashing the nhc for forecasting weakening based on data is absurd (not saying you were, but the poster i was addressing was)
the nhc doesnt sit back and cheerlead all storms in every situation....and bashing the nhc for forecasting weakening based on data is absurd (not saying you were, but the poster i was addressing was)
Last edited by djtil on Thu Sep 22, 2005 5:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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