Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[artist]

and here is my local Hydrologic Forecast that has been posted to our daily forecast page from the NWS-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
854 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, FLOODING POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

A BROAD LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...THOUGH IT APPEARS ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO
OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...COPIOUS
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...THEN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
LOW EXITS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOISTURE LEVELS VERY WELL COULD REACH NEAR MAXIMUM HISTORICAL
VALUES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HIGHEST TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL OR PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI ON THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... ic+Outlook

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[artist]

PREDICT Science Director Summary

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Author of Report: Montgomery
Type of Mission: Director Summary and RF24
Start Time of Mission(UTC): 2010/09/27 14:41
End Time of Mission(UTC): 2010/09/27 14:41
Submitted at(UTC): 2010/09/27 14:51

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mission Summary
Science Director Summary for Sep 27.

We are focused today on the the broad area of cyclonic
circulation in the Northwestern Caribbean. The GV is currently
flying research flight 24, with an east-west oriented lawnmower
pattern (see Image 1).
(here is the image)

http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/pre ... mmary.html

[PTrackerLA]

Not sure why everyone is calling this trough so strong for this time of the year. It's the end of september and we just had our first real cool front move though last night (which is typical for this time of year.) Tonight should be in the mid 50's for my area but given it's practically October nothing unusual about that.

[HURAKAN]

accuweather's take

[ronjon]

12z GFS - possible strong tropical storm/CAT 1 hurricane meandering off the SW FL coast for 3 days early next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_174m.gif

[ROCK]

nice graphic Accuweather. Sums it up pretty well with the see saw reference....

[ROCK]

12z GFS - possible strong tropical storm/CAT 1 hurricane meandering off the SW FL coast for 3 days early next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_174m.gif

yeah and from 174hr to 384hr it is pushed back into the NW Carib through the channel.....

[Aric Dunn]

Just checked a few observations and from what i can tell there are two potential areas that could be forming weak Circ. the first one very near Cozumel which is very weak and should have a harder time to develop being that there is little curvature to the wind field and the area mostly has SE winds. The second area near the Cayman Islands has a better shot being on the eastern edge of the very broad Low pressure and cyclonic turning. Also the eastern Cayman islands are reporting a SSE wind while the western Cayman islands are reporting a SSW wind. So there could be a weak LLC somewhere near the convective mass and visible satellite indicates some low level turning developing. Its likely very localized right now but I would put my money there for the moment. It should ( whatever vort develops ) move NW today around the cyclonic flow.

[ROCK]

Just checked a few observations and from what i can tell there are two potential areas that could be forming weak Circ. the first one very near Cozumel which is very weak and should have a harder time to develop being that there is little curvature to the wind field and the area mostly has SE winds. The second area near the Cayman Islands has a better shot being on the eastern edge of the very broad Low pressure and cyclonic turning. Also the eastern Cayman islands are reporting a SSE wind while the western Cayman islands are reporting a SSW wind. So there could be a weak LLC somewhere near the convective mass and visible satellite indicates some low level turning developing. Its likely very localized right now but I would put my money there for the moment. It should ( whatever vort develops ) move NW today around the cyclonic flow.

thats where i would place it...near the caymans...the Cozumel low looked pretty good last night but has poofed today...likely the Cayman low is stealing its thunder....

[CourierPR]

Just checked a few observations and from what i can tell there are two potential areas that could be forming weak Circ. the first one very near Cozumel which is very weak and should have a harder time to develop being that there is little curvature to the wind field and the area mostly has SE winds. The second area near the Cayman Islands has a better shot being on the eastern edge of the very broad Low pressure and cyclonic turning. Also the eastern Cayman islands are reporting a SSE wind while the western Cayman islands are reporting a SSW wind. So there could be a weak LLC somewhere near the convective mass and visible satellite indicates some low level turning developing. Its likely very localized right now but I would put my money there for the moment. It should ( whatever vort develops ) move NW today around the cyclonic flow.

I was also thinking that maybe a center of circulation would develop farther east than speculated by many.

[Aric Dunn]

Just checked a few observations and from what i can tell there are two potential areas that could be forming weak Circ. the first one very near Cozumel which is very weak and should have a harder time to develop being that there is little curvature to the wind field and the area mostly has SE winds. The second area near the Cayman Islands has a better shot being on the eastern edge of the very broad Low pressure and cyclonic turning. Also the eastern Cayman islands are reporting a SSE wind while the western Cayman islands are reporting a SSW wind. So there could be a weak LLC somewhere near the convective mass and visible satellite indicates some low level turning developing. Its likely very localized right now but I would put my money there for the moment. It should ( whatever vort develops ) move NW today around the cyclonic flow.

thats where i would place it...near the caymans...the Cozumel low looked pretty good last night but has poofed today...likely the Cayman low is stealing its thunder....

well that was a MLC that a convective collapse produced.

[ROCK]

Just checked a few observations and from what i can tell there are two potential areas that could be forming weak Circ. the first one very near Cozumel which is very weak and should have a harder time to develop being that there is little curvature to the wind field and the area mostly has SE winds. The second area near the Cayman Islands has a better shot being on the eastern edge of the very broad Low pressure and cyclonic turning. Also the eastern Cayman islands are reporting a SSE wind while the western Cayman islands are reporting a SSW wind. So there could be a weak LLC somewhere near the convective mass and visible satellite indicates some low level turning developing. Its likely very localized right now but I would put my money there for the moment. It should ( whatever vort develops ) move NW today around the cyclonic flow.

thats where i would place it...near the caymans...the Cozumel low looked pretty good last night but has poofed today...likely the Cayman low is stealing its thunder....

well that was a MLC that a convective collapse produced.

I dunna know Aric....I watched it last night and looked to be a naked swirl or eddy before building some convection.....but any rate it looks dead now...Should uncloak here soon and see its true identity....

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION JET AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. CONSULT
STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[Decomdoug]

I'm starting to think that some of these models are ingesting some shrooms.

[Evil Jeremy]

I still say the TWO percentage will be increased to 40% in a half hour, but the fact that this remains non-invested is amazing. I don't think Recon will fly until it is invested as well. Have they ever flown into a non -invest?

EDIT: Why don't they just call it the 1:30 PM TWO lol?

[Aric Dunn]

I'm starting to think that some of these models are ingesting some shrooms.

yeah.. lol or we are.... :p

[HURAKAN]

It's funny when you get an invest when a system is inland, aka 99L, but we're still waiting for an invest to be declared in the NW Caribbean. lol

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know if it has been posted yet, but CMC shows a landfall in SWFL (Naples area? Can't tell where specifically) in 60 hours.

[artist]

I still say the TWO percentage will be increased to 40% in a half hour, but the fact that this remains non-invested is amazing. I don't think Recon will fly until it is invested as well. Have they ever flown into a non -invest?



EDIT: Why don't they just call it the 1:30 PM TWO lol?

PREDICT does have a research mission out there today.