Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[TheStormExpert]

Could make Earl a good candidate for retirement next spring.

 https://twitter.com/johnmoralesnbc6/status/764099657748197377

[Florida1118]

Could make Earl a good candidate for retirement next spring.

I doubt it. Central American countries in general don't request for retirement that much. See: Ernesto 2012, Alex 2010, Richard 2010, Karl 2010, Emily 2005, etc. I'm quite sure Earl will still be around.

[Hammy]

This August is turning out vaguely similar to 1985--we had two hurricanes that year, and the similarity is that we had one system originating in the Caribbean (Earl, similar to Danny in 1985, except the steering pattern was different so it went into Belize instead of Louisiana) and the system around the Southeast, similar to Claudette in 1985--the difference again being steering, where Claudette was turned out to sea and this system remained inland (it would've likely developed and given the upper pattern, become a hurricane had it managed to go over water for a good amount of time. After those two, there was literally nothing until the closing days of the month, which is similar to what the models are showing at the moment.

[Kazmit]

Could make Earl a good candidate for retirement next spring.

I doubt it. Central American countries in general don't request for retirement that much. See: Ernesto 2012, Alex 2010, Richard 2010, Karl 2010, Emily 2005, etc. I'm quite sure Earl will still be around.

I'll give Earl a 50/50 chance for retirement. Death toll now up to 65 with at least a hundred million dollars in damage.

[USTropics]

Could make Earl a good candidate for retirement next spring.

I doubt it. Central American countries in general don't request for retirement that much. See: Ernesto 2012, Alex 2010, Richard 2010, Karl 2010, Emily 2005, etc. I'm quite sure Earl will still be around.

I'll give Earl a 50/50 chance for retirement. Death toll now up to 65 with at least a hundred million dollars in damage.

Mexico may ask this to be retired. If I recall correctly, it was Mexico that asked for Ingrid in 2013 to be retired. Ingrid killed 32 people in Mexico. Hurricane Earl killed 39 people in Mexico alone this year.

[Alyono]

I doubt it. Central American countries in general don't request for retirement that much. See: Ernesto 2012, Alex 2010, Richard 2010, Karl 2010, Emily 2005, etc. I'm quite sure Earl will still be around.

I'll give Earl a 50/50 chance for retirement. Death toll now up to 65 with at least a hundred million dollars in damage.

Mexico may ask this to be retired. If I recall correctly, it was Mexico that asked for Ingrid in 2013 to be retired. Ingrid killed 32 people in Mexico. Hurricane Earl killed 39
people in Mexico alone this year.

Ingrid was retired in combo with manuel. They combined to kill more than 150

[USTropics]

I'll give Earl a 50/50 chance for retirement. Death toll now up to 65 with at least a hundred million dollars in damage.

Mexico may ask this to be retired. If I recall correctly, it was Mexico that asked for Ingrid in 2013 to be retired. Ingrid killed 32 people in Mexico. Hurricane Earl killed 39
people in Mexico alone this year.

Ingrid was retired in combo with manuel. They combined to kill more than 150

Yea I understand that was a one-two combo, but Ingrid directly caused 32 deaths. Manuel was by far the more potent system in terms of damages and death count (123 deaths contributed to Manuel). I was just providing a recent example of why Earl may be considered for retirement. I mean we are talking about 65 total deaths as well for Hurricane Earl. The main difference is possibly damage, as Ingrid is credited with causing 1.5 billion USD in damages. I think the loss of life is more critical then damages though.

Anyways probably best to get this thread back on track to seasonal indicators and take Hurricane Earl to a different thread

[Ntxw]

This August is turning out vaguely similar to 1985--we had two hurricanes that year, and the similarity is that we had one system originating in the Caribbean (Earl, similar to Danny in 1985, except the steering pattern was different so it went into Belize instead of Louisiana) and the system around the Southeast, similar to Claudette in 1985--the difference again being steering, where Claudette was turned out to sea and this system remained inland (it would've likely developed and given the upper pattern, become a hurricane had it managed to go over water for a good amount of time. After those two, there was literally nothing until the closing days of the month, which is similar to what the models are showing at the moment.

I like your thinking of 1985. The weak Nina, fairly active Pacific and the Atlantic managed to turn on later.

[Yellow Evan]

Curious to why people bring up 1985 and not 1984, given that both years had similar patterns.

[Kazmit]

Here is an interesting article from the SunSentinel concerning landfall threats and locations for this season.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/palm-beach/fl-hurricane-predictions-20160506-story.html

Hmm. It seems that a lot of the predictions call for a very Caribbean-centered season, and less of the open Atlantic, and East Coast. The Gulf could also be a storm spawner due to it's very warm SSTs. We shall have to see what happens...

[Hammy]

Curious to why people bring up 1985 and not 1984, given that both years had similar patterns.

Going by satellite, 1984 had persistent troughing on the east coast going into the Caribbean with above normal shear in the Caribbean, essentially shutting it down along with the GoM--and most systems in 1984 formed in the subtropics from non-tropical systems--meanwhile everything this year so far has made landfall.

[gatorcane]

The waves over Africa are looking stronger and stronger. You can see two vigorous ones over the continent tonight:

[USTropics]

18z simulated IR shows a very potent wave in 132 hours, key will be the conditions once it enters the water:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/764446408153952264

[Alyono]

Mexico may ask this to be retired. If I recall correctly, it was Mexico that asked for Ingrid in 2013 to be retired. Ingrid killed 32 people in Mexico. Hurricane Earl killed 39
people in Mexico alone this year.

Ingrid was retired in combo with manuel. They combined to kill more than 150

Yea I understand that was a one-two combo, but Ingrid directly caused 32 deaths. Manuel was by far the more potent system in terms of damages and death count (123 deaths contributed to Manuel). I was just providing a recent example of why Earl may be considered for retirement. I mean we are talking about 65 total deaths as well for Hurricane Earl. The main difference is possibly damage, as Ingrid is credited with causing 1.5 billion USD in damages. I think the loss of life is more critical then damages though.

Anyways probably best to get this thread back on track to seasonal indicators and take Hurricane Earl to a different thread

That was a unique occurrence as both storms were prominently in the news in Mexico simultaneously. The flooding was considered to have been caused by both. The public does not care one bit as to whether or not one storm or the other caused the deaths

[Alyono]

As for season activity, we need to change the long wave pattern of suppressing the Atlantic by the end of the month, or else this season is going to be even quiet than I was expecting.

Right now, the models are even showing some BOB activity in a few days, which means that it is the eastern Hemisphere that favors upward motion at this time

[cycloneye]

More trouble for North Atlantic development prospects in the next few weeks.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/764458718700396544

[centuryv58]

More trouble for North Atlantic development prospects in the next few weeks.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/764458718700396544

This seems at odds with NOAA and others. He may be citing a one off model?

[centuryv58]

More trouble for North Atlantic development prospects in the next few weeks.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/764458718700396544

This seems at odds with NOAA and others. He may be citing a one off model?

Edit: I now see he is not as sure about his prediction. See tweet below:

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Antonio Rodriguez
‏@ChuitoAzul
@MJVentrice Then how it is possible to have a near or above HH season...as NOAA says
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MableReynolds56955
6:26 AM - 13 Aug 2016
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Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 26m26 minutes ago
@ChuitoAzul Depends on September-October
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[TheStormExpert]

More trouble for North Atlantic development prospects in the next few weeks.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/764458718700396544

Of course that is the Canadian model, I'd take it with a grain of salt.