2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[aspen]

So I guess we can throw the GFS solutions out the window.

Until it properly models the favorable MJO moving into the Atlantic, we will have to ignore it.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1295015430931742721

[gatorcane]

The GMAO (Global Model Assimilation Office) model (NASA) model may be something to bookmark. They have extended the runs out through 240 hours (00Z only) and it is run twice a day at 12Z and 00Z. I do not know the accuracy of this model. If anybody has additional info on this model, pls share:

https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/wxmaps//?on ... eld=precip

[Steve]

The GMAO (Global Model Assimilation Office) model (NASA) model may be something to bookmark. They have extended the runs out through 240 hours (00Z only) and it is run twice a day at 12Z and 00Z. I do not know the accuracy of this model. If anybody has additional info on this model, pls share:

https://fluid.nccs.nasa.gov/wxmaps//?on ... eld=precip

It's been talked about before, but I don't feel like searching back. However, its solutions look fairly reasonable for 10 days out. It's got the first wave heading toward South Texas or the Central Texas Coast before 10 days. That would be landfall 6 of what would most likely be a tropical storm in that part of the basin.

[lsuhurricane]

GFS playing catch up as usual on its most recent run. Developing the wave passing through the Antilles and ramping it up of the Yucatán. ICON is really sniffing things out this year

[Steve]

GFS is beginning to slide toward the EC-ICON alliance developing low pressure in the Western Caribbean. Interestingly it also wants to bring the second low at least into the Caribbean. I haven't been paying as close attention to that one, but it seemed like since some of the other models started showing it, it was usually in the northeast Leewards. We'll have to see how this evolves as any down-the-line threat from the big wave could be adjusted left or right in a few days on the models.

GFS 180 Hours


ICON 180 Hours


CMC 180 Hours

[aspen]

GFS is beginning to slide toward the EC-ICON alliance developing low pressure in the Western Caribbean. Interestingly it also wants to bring the second low at least into the Caribbean. I haven't been paying as close attention to that one, but it seemed like since some of the other models started showing it, it was usually in the northeast Leewards. We'll have to see how this evolves as any down-the-line threat from the big wave could be adjusted left or right in a few days on the models.

GFS 180 Hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=180

ICON 180 Hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=180

I'll come back and post the CMC 180 frame once it's out. It's also seeming to come around to the EC/Icon's solution of 2 closed low pressure systems.

12z ICON is really close to yesterday’s 12z CMC, and just as concerning. Any strengthening TC in the Gulf has the potential to bomb out with SSTs reaching and exceeding 30C in that region.

[Steve]

And the GFS goes back to the EPAC at 228 hours.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is also showing a stronger storm in the wake of TD 12 in the EPAC also, develops about a week from now.

[aspen]

Today’s 12z CMC has two weak TCs from both waves at 126 hours, one in the WCar and another close to the Lesser Antilles.

[Steve]

GFS is beginning to slide toward the EC-ICON alliance developing low pressure in the Western Caribbean. Interestingly it also wants to bring the second low at least into the Caribbean. I haven't been paying as close attention to that one, but it seemed like since some of the other models started showing it, it was usually in the northeast Leewards. We'll have to see how this evolves as any down-the-line threat from the big wave could be adjusted left or right in a few days on the models.

GFS 180 Hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=180

ICON 180 Hours
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=180

I'll come back and post the CMC 180 frame once it's out. It's also seeming to come around to the EC/Icon's solution of 2 closed low pressure systems.

12z ICON is really close to yesterday’s 12z CMC, and just as concerning. Any strengthening TC in the Gulf has the potential to bomb out with SSTs reaching and exceeding 30C in that region.

For sure. Overall I feel like CMC has been hot and cold on it. ICON was prime on it. EC ensembles) now mostly agree. GFS hints but doesn't really do much. Besides its ripe EPAC, maybe it sees too much interruption with the Yucatan Peninsula. We'll have a week to watch this stuff and see if any one or more models was better at showing conditions 5-7-10 days out. Not that it's ever 100%, but since we're almost hitting the heart of the season, it should be fun to watch and see if any models end up outshining others in that 7-10 day range.

[Aric Dunn]

shouldn't these posts be in the two threads. for central atlantic and wave off africa. since that is what the models are developing.

[Steve]

LOL. I'm not even going to post this one, and props to it if it gets it right. But at 258, GFS has massive Atlantic-wide ridging, and it's showing yet another EPAC development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=258

[Steve]

shouldn't these posts be in the two threads. for central atlantic and wave off africa. since that is what the models are developing.

I'm not paying attention to those threads at this point. It's the 16-day models thread, and there's going to be overlap.

[NDG]

shouldn't these posts be in the two threads. for central atlantic and wave off africa. since that is what the models are developing.

I agree, the systems already exists, and the model solutions for each system should be in their appropriate threads.

[SFLcane]

Ukmet for wave in eastern Atl.. Just north of the Islands.

[gatorcane]

LOL. I'm not even going to post this one, and props to it if it gets it right. But at 258, GFS has massive Atlantic-wide ridging, and it's showing yet another EPAC development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=258

Out a little farther at 288 the GFS looks even more grim for the Atlantic. Has most of the basin in high pressure and all of the favorable conditions failing to get east of the mountains of Central America. The model loves the EPAC and has no love for the Atlantic. Bring back the GFS phantom canes!

[SouthFLTropics]

12z CMC has it in for the upper Texas Coast...double whammy!!!


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[CourierPR]

Did not someone post earlier in the week that we should look to the ensembles?

[SFLcane]

LOL. I'm not even going to post this one, and props to it if it gets it right. But at 258, GFS has massive Atlantic-wide ridging, and it's showing yet another EPAC development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=258

Out a little farther at 288 the GFS looks even more grim for the Atlantic. Has most of the basin in high pressure and all of the favorable conditions failing to get east of the mountains of Central America. The model loves the EPAC and has no love for the Atlantic. Bring back the GFS phantom canes!

https://i.postimg.cc/gcSYccdM/gfs-mslpa-Norm-atl-50.png

Ok grim? Not sure what exactly you keep looking at. It’s been posted countless times by pro Mets the gfs is having real problems with handling off upper level environment in the Atlantic. Hate to tell you but there is an outbreak forthcoming across the Atl basin soon.