2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Shockingly quiet models for the last week of August. This signal for MDR in early September is persistent, but always 8 days away.

[MarioProtVI]

Wow, since 1994.

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1827774731681993030

This is most definitely a troll tweet as he’s literally said he expects this season to be a 1994 repeat.

[Blown Away]

Wow, since 1994.

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1827774731681993030

This is most definitely a troll tweet as he’s literally said he expects this season to be a 1994 repeat.

Nah, he’s respected on this board for a very long time. It’s not trolling he clearly says the “models” are showing 1994 conditions, it’s accurate at this moment, doesn’t mean it will happen.

[Europa non è lontana]

12z ICON has a small tropical storm forming over the Black Sea and making landfall over the Danube Delta in three days. A couple of ECMWF ensemble members also show a system developing in the Black Sea at the same time. Some models have been intermittently showing development of a subtropical or tropical system in the Black Sea since a few days ago, but never consistently.

[Hammy]

Wow, since 1994.

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1827774731681993030

This is most definitely a troll tweet as he’s literally said he expects this season to be a 1994 repeat.

Nothing about this says he expects this, it's literally an observation of what the models are showing.

[Category5Kaiju]

12Z GEFS ensembles seem to like that possible central MDR system, which seemingly forms during the first few days of September

[emeraldislenc]

Derek Ott is very respected on this board! I have always respected and enjoyed his remarks! Thanks Derek!

[txwxwatcher]

Posted just hours ago by professional Mets in Houston:

“There are no active storms in the Atlantic Basin, nor is there any development expected over the next 7 days.”

https://abc13.com/post/2024-hurricane-s ... /14867156/

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, since 1994.

 https://x.com/DerekOrtt/status/1827774731681993030

This is most definitely a troll tweet as he’s literally said he expects this season to be a 1994 repeat.

Derek Ortt is a very well respected meteorologist who use to be a frequent poster on this board. The fact that he's Bearish on development usually means he's done his research.

[otowntiger]

Amazed the GFS continues to show no hurricanes from now up to peak season during a predicted hyper active year…

I still stand by this comment!

Agreed. During any season this would be unusual and remarkable- but made even more so for a season that was predicted. While it is certainly not exciting it is very intriguing.
Every day that goes by we get one day closer to a very significant bust of a whole lotta forecasts.

[Weathertracker96]

Any thoughts why the 12z GEFS still show activity but the operational isn’t as active?
Seems like storms will still form this season.

Seems like 12z EPS show some stuff too.

[Hammy]

Any thoughts why the 12z GEFS still show activity but the operational isn’t as active?
Seems like storms will still form this season.

Seems like 12z EPS show some stuff too.

I think the models are picking up on something being on the verge of changing, but aren't quite resolving when that's going to happen--and the monsoon trough issue is probably throwing an added wrench into the mix, if there are storms that will develop during this span of time, the operational models aren't handling this complex situation very well.

[Teban54]

12z EPS, from 120 to 240 hrs:

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Any thoughts why the 12z GEFS still show activity but the operational isn’t as active?
Seems like storms will still form this season.

Seems like 12z EPS show some stuff too.

I think the models are picking up on something being on the verge of changing, but aren't quite resolving when that's going to happen--and the monsoon trough issue is probably throwing an added wrench into the mix, if there are storms that will develop during this span of time, the operational models aren't handling this complex situation very well.

Been hearing this for a week. Phantom storms 8-10 days away but never getting any closer.

[Stratton23]

Im thinking we will have a named storm in the MDR within the next 10 days, ensembles have been consistent with this, im just not buying the operational models at the moment until they resolve the monsoon trough issue

[Hammy]

Any thoughts why the 12z GEFS still show activity but the operational isn’t as active?
Seems like storms will still form this season.

Seems like 12z EPS show some stuff too.

I think the models are picking up on something being on the verge of changing, but aren't quite resolving when that's going to happen--and the monsoon trough issue is probably throwing an added wrench into the mix, if there are storms that will develop during this span of time, the operational models aren't handling this complex situation very well.

Been hearing this for a week. Phantom storms 8-10 days away but never getting any closer.

CFS has been showing Aug 28-Sep 2 range since late July (it seems to vary from run to run where in the MDR this will form, hence the date variation), even with the reduction in the latest runs

[Category5Kaiju]

Any thoughts why the 12z GEFS still show activity but the operational isn’t as active?
Seems like storms will still form this season.

Seems like 12z EPS show some stuff too.

I think the models are picking up on something being on the verge of changing, but aren't quite resolving when that's going to happen--and the monsoon trough issue is probably throwing an added wrench into the mix, if there are storms that will develop during this span of time, the operational models aren't handling this complex situation very well.

Been hearing this for a week. Phantom storms 8-10 days away but never getting any closer.

Ensembles have been pretty consistent with the idea of something possibly forming in the MDR in the early days of September. That general timeframe hasn’t changed, and for a storm to be real its supporting ensembles don’t necessarily have to be pushed up in time. It’s when the ensembles are widely inconsistent or get delayed over and over again. Those would serve as an indication that a storm may be a phantom after all.

[cajungal]

Those wanting a hurricane just go to Pat o briens. They may be only one you get right now and at least those won’t cause widespread destruction

[Hammy]

I think the models are picking up on something being on the verge of changing, but aren't quite resolving when that's going to happen--and the monsoon trough issue is probably throwing an added wrench into the mix, if there are storms that will develop during this span of time, the operational models aren't handling this complex situation very well.

Been hearing this for a week. Phantom storms 8-10 days away but never getting any closer.

Ensembles have been pretty consistent with the idea of something possibly forming in the MDR in the early days of September. That general timeframe hasn’t changed, and for a storm to be real its supporting ensembles don’t necessarily have to be pushed up in time. It’s when the ensembles are widely inconsistent or get delayed over and over again. Those would serve as an indication that a storm may be a phantom after all.

I've rarely used them until this year (since the operational models are bordering on useless with their inconsistency) so are the ensembles generally a leading trend indicator moreso than op?

[MarioProtVI]

Been hearing this for a week. Phantom storms 8-10 days away but never getting any closer.

Ensembles have been pretty consistent with the idea of something possibly forming in the MDR in the early days of September. That general timeframe hasn’t changed, and for a storm to be real its supporting ensembles don’t necessarily have to be pushed up in time. It’s when the ensembles are widely inconsistent or get delayed over and over again. Those would serve as an indication that a storm may be a phantom after all.

I've rarely used them until this year (since the operational models are bordering on useless with their inconsistency) so are the ensembles generally a leading trend indicator moreso than op?

They seem to be better handling them it seems yeah.