Pouch PGI50L in NW Carribean - Code Orange - (Is Invest 96L)

[Evil Jeremy]

I still say the TWO percentage will be increased to 40% in a half hour, but the fact that this remains non-invested is amazing. I don't think Recon will fly until it is invested as well. Have they ever flown into a non -invest?



EDIT: Why don't they just call it the 1:30 PM TWO lol?

PREDICT does have a research mission out there today.

I meant the NHC tasked recon missions.

[Decomdoug]

I can't pull myself away from this board. I keep thinking that any second something important is going to happen and if I dont keep watching I'll miss it. But, of course it's always just out of sight, coming in the next hour. I need a 12 step program!

[tolakram]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not sure this will be tropical. From looking at the models it sure does resemble a nor'easter rather than a tropical storm. Both GFS and CMC show amorphous areas of low pressure moving through Florida and up the east coast.

[wxman57]

Is that matthew's remnant low about to enter into the BOC? Still showing a strong vorticity there. With weak steering currents, that could fester in the BOC until the next low dips down in a few days. -or is it pegged to head further west and remain over land?

Actually, the GFS takes Matthew's remnants and moves it ESE out into the East Pac briefly then NE across Nicaragua and off the coast of Honduras where it develops the next NW Caribbean storm by this weekend. You can quite easily follow the vorticity eastward then northeast into the NW Caribbean in 4-5 days.

[Hurricanehink]

I always find it interesting, this time no exception, when the NHC says tropical or subtropical development is possible. Perhaps the system will resemble Gilda 73, which was tropical in the Caribbean and became subtropical in the western Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not sure this will be tropical. From looking at the models it sure does resemble a nor'easter rather than a tropical storm. Both GFS and CMC show amorphous areas of low pressure moving through Florida and up the east coast.

CMC


GFS

[ColinDelia]

12z GFS

TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 000, 185N, 878W, 12, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 006, 182N, 871W, 16, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 012, 187N, 859W, 14, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 018, 198N, 838W, 15, 1003, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 024, 205N, 826W, 20, 1001, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 030, 208N, 826W, 21, 999, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 036, 213N, 822W, 27, 997, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 042, 235N, 813W, 35, 997, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0131, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 048, 244N, 813W, 36, 996, XX, 34, NEQ, 0140, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 054, 267N, 807W, 36, 996, XX, 34, NEQ, 0147, 0268, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 060, 291N, 800W, 39, 995, XX, 34, NEQ, 0082, 0645, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 066, 312N, 798W, 46, 993, XX, 34, NEQ, 0203, 0346, 0000, 0055, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 072, 333N, 790W, 45, 993, XX, 34, NEQ, 0156, 0301, 0095, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 078, 353N, 780W, 39, 995, XX, 34, NEQ, 0180, 0301, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,001, 2010092712, 03, GFSO, 084, 355N, 767W, 35, 997, XX, 34, NEQ, 0301, 0207, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF

[wxman57]

I don't think there's any question that this low would start out tropical. But once it crosses Florida it will be interacting with the cold front, so it may be quickly losing tropical characteristics as it nears the Carolinas.

[ColinDelia]

12z NAM

TG,015, 2010092712, 03, NAM, 024, 204N, 823W, 30, 999, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, NAM, 030, 205N, 824W, 29, 998, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, NAM, 036, 208N, 823W, 26, 996, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, NAM, 042, 213N, 821W, 29, 995, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, NAM, 048, 220N, 820W, 34, 993, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0343, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, NAM, 054, 229N, 820W, 37, 994, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0300, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, NAM, 060, 247N, 820W, 30, 993, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,015, 2010092712, 03, NAM, 066, 259N, 818W, 32, 994, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0271, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF

[ColinDelia]

12z CMC

TG,005, 2010092712, 03, CMC, 018, 197N, 850W, 15, 1004, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,005, 2010092712, 03, CMC, 024, 207N, 842W, 17, 1002, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,005, 2010092712, 03, CMC, 030, 209N, 831W, 22, 1001, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,005, 2010092712, 03, CMC, 036, 215N, 821W, 28, 999, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,005, 2010092712, 03, CMC, 042, 230N, 822W, 28, 997, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,005, 2010092712, 03, CMC, 048, 244N, 830W, 30, 995, XX, 34, NEQ, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,005, 2010092712, 03, CMC, 054, 259N, 829W, 30, 993, XX, 34, NEQ, 0320, 0000, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,005, 2010092712, 03, CMC, 060, 263N, 822W, 32, 989, XX, 34, NEQ, 0337, 0336, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF
TG,005, 2010092712, 03, CMC, 066, 279N, 810W, 32, 992, XX, 34, NEQ, 0337, 0635, 0000, 0000, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, FOF

[Vortex]

Thanks for the model output colin..

[JPmia]

Looking at the 12z GFS looks like the real threat to Florida is after this first storm/sub-trop storm goes through...end of the run showing something off the SW FL coast and it's stuck there!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Sanibel]

Vortex off Cozumel on visible loop. Uncertain of nature.

[Vortmax1]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

[ColinDelia]

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

That's an excellent discussion

[northjaxpro]

Is that matthew's remnant low about to enter into the BOC? Still showing a strong vorticity there. With weak steering currents, that could fester in the BOC until the next low dips down in a few days. -or is it pegged to head further west and remain over land?

Actually, the GFS takes Matthew's remnants and moves it ESE out into the East Pac briefly then NE across Nicaragua and off the coast of Honduras where it develops the next NW Caribbean storm by this weekend. You can quite easily follow the vorticity eastward then northeast into the NW Caribbean in 4-5 days.

Ah, I missed that analysis wxman57. I thought the remnants would die out into Mexico, but I went back and checked what you stated wxman57 and indeed you are right. It ties the energy into the monsoonal trough established over the western Caribbean. Very interesting. That possibly could spawn the genesis of Otto later in the period. Thanks wxman57 for the clarification. I simply just missed or overlooked this earlier.

[ronjon]

12z CMC: Into SW FL and then elongated north-south over the peninsula. Shifted west from the 00z run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010092712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Dean4Storms]

12Z GFS out to 54 hours..landfall in South Florida

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... cal054.gif

996mb's......With the strong ridge developing behind the trough I would suspect at least Hurricane force winds a possibility along the east coast of Florida due to the pressure gradient.

I"m not sure where you're seeing a strong ridge behind a trof. I see a weak high behind a cold front northwest of the low and a much stronger high to the NE. Strongest gradient would be between the 996mb low and the Bermuda High, but that's only a 10mb gradient over 400 miles. Not very much, and not nearly enough to produce anything close to hurricane force winds.

Looking NW of the low, there's a much weaker 1012mb high center behind the cold front. I measure a 10 mb pressure rise in close to 500 miles to the NW of the low when it's over south Florida. Either way, a low-end TS at most according to the GFS forecast.

Oopppss! I just caught this wxman75, I know I said east coast of FL but I meant the west coast of FL. Still though don't think the pressure gradient enough with the 1012mb High like you said. But my bad.

[Vortmax1]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010


...MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPING WEATHER
SITUATION EXPECTED TO UNFOLD TUE-WED WITH THE MAIN IMPACT EXPECTED
TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA
TUESDAY...THEN ACROSS SOUTH FL ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THOUGH
INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

REGARDLESS OF TC DEVELOPMENT...COPIUS TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SURGE
NORTHWARD INTO THE SERVICE AREA TONIGHT-TUE...REMAINING IN PLACE
ON WED AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL
PROBABLY MOVE TO OUR EAST BY THU. IN THE MEANTIME...CIRA
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS PW`S NEARING THE 3 INCH MARK OVER
THE WESTERN CARIB! WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW DIVING INTO DIXIE. THIS WILL FORCE THE
CARIBBEAN MOISTURE N-NE INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW PW`S APPROACHING MAX HISTORICAL VALUES
HERE BY WED MORNING...AND WITH THE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE LOW...THERE IS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FL. (OF COURSE...SHOULD THE LOW
MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST...THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WOULD BE MUCH
LOWER. HOWEVER...MODEL CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST WEEK PUTS THIS
POSSIBILITY AT VERY LOW.)

GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SHOW THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRING ALONG THE SE
FL COAST. INTERESTING TO SEE THAT THE GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW WHAT
WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINBAND MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG OUR SE
COAST TUE NIGHT-WED AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS. HAVE
ISSUED A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR ALL OF MAINLAND SOUTH FL TO
HIGHLIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH THE OUTLOOK
COVERS ALL OF SOUTH FL...INCLUDING THE GREATER NAPLES AREA...THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DOES APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS TUE NIGHT-WED. HPC QPF SHOWS AREAL
AVG RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND 4" GULF COAST TO 5-6" ATLANTIC COAST. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FCST ISSUANCES...SO STAY
TUNED. /GREGORIA

[ROCK]

I think this thread should be moved / renamed to the Severe FL Weather Thread.....

thats said, I see nothing remotely at the surface out there. Cayman or Cozumel...just 2 MLC's spinning around a bigger envelope.....my reasoning? you have outflow boundaries all of the place around these 2 MLC's....slow developer, IMO...