2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Whereas the amount of activity to this point has been well above the average for a moderate+ Nino, the steering/tracks seem to have been pretty El Niñoish. Other opinions?

Then what about years like 1995, 1999, 2010, or 2021? Those years were solid La Nina years but saw many powerful storms completely recurve out to sea.

[LarryWx]

Whereas the amount of activity to this point has been well above the average for a moderate+ Nino, the steering/tracks seem to have been pretty El Niñoish. Other opinions?

Then what about years like 1995, 1999, 2010, or 2021? Those years were solid La Nina years but saw many powerful storms completely recurve out to sea.

I'm mainly talking about the lack of a strong Bermuda High/WAR much of the time along with rather persistent troughiness near the US E coast, which makes me think of El Niño. Other than Harold, there has been no W or WNW moving TC west of 74W and there are none in sight other than the small chance 95L does so.

[Steve]

Whereas the amount of activity to this point has been well above the average for a moderate+ Nino, the steering/tracks seem to have been pretty El Niñoish. Other opinions?

Then what about years like 1995, 1999, 2010, or 2021? Those years were solid La Nina years but saw many powerful storms completely recurve out to sea.

I'm mainly talking about the lack of a strong Bermuda High/WAR much of the time along with rather persistent troughiness near the US E coast, which makes me think of El Niño. Other than Harold, there has been no W or WNW moving TC west of 74W and there are none in sight other than the small chance 95L does so.

So pretty much the season is going like many of us expected - just maybe busier. I think we learned that if the basin is record hot, there will be many storms regardless of ENSO state. But in this case, fish/recurves are the main systems. There's still plenty of time for another Gulf or an East Coast system and certainly with all that hot water in the maritimes, you gotta figure something gets pulled in or at least close to eastern Canada.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[Deshaunrob17]

The waters better cool off next year because If all this activity is happening in a strong El Niño, I would hate to think what happens next year when things get back to neutral !
By late next week, we are going hit 100 Ace - and this only accounting for 95L , not the East Atlantic wave. Insane ! I just hope that El Niño shuts things down in October because we could be dealing with a repeat of 2020.

[WalterWhite]

The waters better cool off next year because If all this activity is happening in a strong El Niño, I would hate to think what happens next year when things get back to neutral !
By late next week, we are going hit 100 Ace - and this only accounting for 95L , not the East Atlantic wave. Insane ! I just hope that El Niño shuts things down in October because we could be dealing with a repeat of 2020.

A repeat of 2020 is almost certainly not going to happen. That would require 17 storms to form between now (September 5) and the end of the year, which has never happened in the history of hurricane seasons. I certainly do not expect it to happen given the fact that we are in an El Niño year.

[Deshaunrob17]

The waters better cool off next year because If all this activity is happening in a strong El Niño, I would hate to think what happens next year when things get back to neutral !
By late next week, we are going hit 100 Ace - and this only accounting for 95L , not the East Atlantic wave. Insane ! I just hope that El Niño shuts things down in October because we could be dealing with a repeat of 2020.

A repeat of 2020 is almost certainly not going to happen. That would require 17 storms to form between now (September 5) and the end of the year, which has never happened in the history of hurricane seasons. I certainly do not expect it to happen given the fact that we are in an El Niño year.

My bad should have been more specific. I wasn’t referring to the number of storms- I was referring to the outbreak of rapidly intensifying storms in the Gulf and Caribbean. I hope El Niño prevents that from happening in October and November- which I believe should be the case but you never know.

[underthwx]

The waters better cool off next year because If all this activity is happening in a strong El Niño, I would hate to think what happens next year when things get back to neutral !
By late next week, we are going hit 100 Ace - and this only accounting for 95L , not the East Atlantic wave. Insane ! I just hope that El Niño shuts things down in October because we could be dealing with a repeat of 2020.

A repeat of 2020 is almost certainly not going to happen. That would require 17 storms to form between now (September 5) and the end of the year, which has never happened in the history of hurricane seasons. I certainly do not expect it to happen given the fact that we are in an El Niño year.

2020 was a year none of us will forget Heisenberg....we don't need a repeat of that yo.......how's the weather in Albuquerque Mr White?....lol....

[WalterWhite]

The GEFS and EPS ensembles show:

- Tropical Depression 13L becoming Tropical Storm Lee later today
- Invest 96L becoming Tropical Storm Margot around September 8
- Another tropical wave after that becoming Tropical Storm Nigel around September 15

By the middle of the month, we could have 15 tropical/subtropical storms this season, officially exceeding the 1991-2020 average of 14 tropical/subtropical storms.

Moreover, these past few Septembers (regardless of SST patterns in the Atlantic or the Pacific) have each had a lot of tropical/subtropical storms: 2018 had 7; 2019 had 7; 2020 had 10; 2021 had 9; 2022 had 6. It is very likely that 2023 will have at least 6 storms based on recent trends. Katia, Lee, Margot, and Nigel already bring that total to 4 September storms; 2 more September storms (Ophelia and Philippe) are likely to form as well.

[zzzh]

EPS trended much weaker on Pacific MJO. Rising branch will likely return to the Atlantic before Sep 20.

[WalterWhite]

The 13th storm of the season, Tropical Storm Lee has formed on September 5. We are currently ahead of 2021 in terms of seasonal pace, for the 13th storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Tropical Storm Mindy, formed on September 8.

[aspen]

The 13th storm of the season, Tropical Storm Lee has formed on September 5. We are currently ahead of 2021 in terms of seasonal pace, for the 13th storm of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Tropical Storm Mindy, formed on September 8.

We will likely have surpassed 2022’s NS and ACE total in only two weeks. Lee could be a 50+ ACE major, and perhaps 96L/Margot could be a hurricane in the subtropics.

[cycloneye]

What El Niño? The North Atlantic dosen't care.

[weeniepatrol]

The magnitude and areal extent of Atlantic warm waters is close to comparable with the WEST PACIFIC and absolutely dwarfs the East Pacific.

#lolnino

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1699368019657453611




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1699368124166864916




 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1699368130395488409




An eye-opening contrast between the ssts of today versus 40 years ago (1983) which was the least active year in the satellite era and was coming off a very strong east based el nino. Even compared to other notably warm years in the modern +amo like 1998/2017, this year is noticeably warmer. This season so far is proving that a record warm Atlantic can compete with a strong el nino.

[Teban54]

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1699368019657453611

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1699368124166864916

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1699368130395488409

An eye-opening contrast between the ssts of today versus 40 years ago (1983) which was the least active year in the satellite era and was coming off a very strong east based el nino. Even compared to other notably warm years in the modern +amo like 1998/2017, this year is noticeably warmer. This season so far is proving that a record warm Atlantic can compete with a strong el nino.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1699372552425030004

[Ntxw]

https://i.imgur.com/gcrDiar.png

The magnitude and areal extent of Atlantic warm waters is close to comparable with the WEST PACIFIC and absolutely dwarfs the East Pacific.

#lolnino

At some point in the future, as SSTs continues to warm, the eastern Atlantic may resemble activity like an EPAC. So you'll have two basins basically. Obviously it's a smaller Ocean than the Pacific as a whole but traditionally that far east has been too cool. Only contention is with SAL.

[WalterWhite]

https://i.imgur.com/gcrDiar.png

The magnitude and areal extent of Atlantic warm waters is close to comparable with the WEST PACIFIC and absolutely dwarfs the East Pacific.

#lolnino

At some point in the future, as SSTs continues to warm, the eastern Atlantic may resemble activity like an EPAC. So you'll have two basins basically. Obviously it's a smaller Ocean than the Pacific as a whole but traditionally that far east has been too cool. Only contention is with SAL.

The entire world is warming, though. What matters is which basin warms faster. If the North Atlantic warms faster than the East Pacific, Atlantic activity would be favored. If the North Atlantic warms slower than the East Pacific, Pacific activity would be favored. Raw sea surface temperatures during hurricane season are always warm enough to sustain a powerful hurricane, but what matters is where the rising and sinking air is.

[Ntxw]

https://i.imgur.com/gcrDiar.png

The magnitude and areal extent of Atlantic warm waters is close to comparable with the WEST PACIFIC and absolutely dwarfs the East Pacific.

#lolnino

At some point in the future, as SSTs continues to warm, the eastern Atlantic may resemble activity like an EPAC. So you'll have two basins basically. Obviously it's a smaller Ocean than the Pacific as a whole but traditionally that far east has been too cool. Only contention is with SAL.

The entire world is warming, though. What matters is which basin warms faster. If the North Atlantic warms faster than the East Pacific, Atlantic activity would be favored. If the North Atlantic warms slower than the East Pacific, Pacific activity would be favored. Raw sea surface temperatures during hurricane season are always warm enough to sustain a powerful hurricane, but what matters is where the rising and sinking air is.

Was referencing only the far eastern Atlantic not the forcing. That an area where historically doesn't support hurricanes will eventually become so with SSTs 26C or greater growing in coverage.

[Woofde]

https://i.imgur.com/gcrDiar.png

The magnitude and areal extent of Atlantic warm waters is close to comparable with the WEST PACIFIC and absolutely dwarfs the East Pacific.

#lolnino

At some point in the future, as SSTs continues to warm, the eastern Atlantic may resemble activity like an EPAC. So you'll have two basins basically. Obviously it's a smaller Ocean than the Pacific as a whole but traditionally that far east has been too cool. Only contention is with SAL.

The entire world is warming, though. What matters is which basin warms faster. If the North Atlantic warms faster than the East Pacific, Atlantic activity would be favored. If the North Atlantic warms slower than the East Pacific, Pacific activity would be favored. Raw sea surface temperatures during hurricane season are always warm enough to sustain a powerful hurricane, but what matters is where the rising and sinking air is.

Yes there is competition among basins, but more fuel is also just more fuel. It's impossible to tell how it will really play out, but I imagine we'll see stronger storms and more areas in play that previously were not supportive of tropical development.

[weeniepatrol]

https://i.imgur.com/gcrDiar.png

The magnitude and areal extent of Atlantic warm waters is close to comparable with the WEST PACIFIC and absolutely dwarfs the East Pacific.

#lolnino

At some point in the future, as SSTs continues to warm, the eastern Atlantic may resemble activity like an EPAC. So you'll have two basins basically. Obviously it's a smaller Ocean than the Pacific as a whole but traditionally that far east has been too cool. Only contention is with SAL.

The entire world is warming, though. What matters is which basin warms faster. If the North Atlantic warms faster than the East Pacific, Atlantic activity would be favored. If the North Atlantic warms slower than the East Pacific, Pacific activity would be favored. Raw sea surface temperatures during hurricane season are always warm enough to sustain a powerful hurricane, but what matters is where the rising and sinking air is.

Seems like the Atlantic should be generally favored just because the EPAC has La Nina to contend with every few years.