2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chaser1]

Last few runs of the long-range GFS and GEFS are showing what look like the westerlies ripping across the Gulf and Florida in the wake of Lee. Given the El Niño, I would not be surprised if the westerlies do become more dominant over the Gulf and possibly Caribbean as we head into late September and October:

https://i.postimg.cc/Jn3r1K6b/gfs-ens-shear-atl-fh168-300.gif

Whew? Sure does! Long range still keeping the overall trough pattern in the east but THAT shear?! That's the 'ol NINO we've come to know and love LOL. Hopefully that'll become persistent.

[Ivanhater]

Last few runs of the long-range GFS and GEFS are showing what look like the westerlies ripping across the Gulf and Florida in the wake of Lee. Given the El Niño, I would not be surprised if the westerlies do become more dominant over the Gulf and possibly Caribbean as we head into late September and October:

https://i.postimg.cc/Jn3r1K6b/gfs-ens-shear-atl-fh168-300.gif

A few weeks ago you were posting the long range Gfs shear maps showing very unfavorable el nino conditions in the Gulf and Caribbean. That didn't work out too well....

[AutoPenalti]

Last few runs of the long-range GFS and GEFS are showing what look like the westerlies ripping across the Gulf and Florida in the wake of Lee. Given the El Niño, I would not be surprised if the westerlies do become more dominant over the Gulf and possibly Caribbean as we head into late September and October:

https://i.postimg.cc/Jn3r1K6b/gfs-ens-shear-atl-fh168-300.gif

Yeah no, I don’t believe this for a second.

[WalterWhite]

The NHC really should mark a new area of interest for potential future Nigel at the 8:00 PM Tropical Weather Outlook. The model support for this is very strong 168 hours out.

GFS operational (the 1002 mb low):


ECMWF operational (the 1006 mb low):


CMC operational (the 1005 mb low):


ICON operational (the 997 mb low):


GEFS (GFS) ensembles:


EPS (ECMWF) ensembles:


GEPS (CMC) ensembles:

[Hurricane2022]

The NHC really should mark a new area of interest for potential future Nigel at the 8:00 PM Tropical Weather Outlook. The model support for this is very strong 168 hours out.

GFS operational (the 1002 mb low):
https://i.postimg.cc/yNY6j91s/gfs-mslpa-atl-29.png

ECMWF operational (the 1006 mb low):
https://i.postimg.cc/RFJBpLj5/ecmwf-mslpa-atl-53.png

CMC operational (the 1005 mb low):
https://i.postimg.cc/QxJrztnt/gem-mslpa-atl-29.png

ICON operational (the 997 mb low):
https://i.postimg.cc/rs2vnX1x/icon-mslp-pcpn-atl-56.png

GEFS (GFS) ensembles:
https://i.postimg.cc/43hLr2N5/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-atl-29.png

EPS (ECMWF) ensembles:
https://i.postimg.cc/x1GqtnLy/eps-lowlocs-atl-28.png

GEPS (CMC) ensembles:
https://i.postimg.cc/x8qb4h9j/gem-ememb-lowlocs-atl-29.png

If the atmospheric conditions cooperate, I think that we will soon see our fourth major hurricane (or fifth, if Margot manages to become one in the subtropics too). It's truly incredible what the record-warm SSTS are showing us in the middle of a moderate El Niño.

[ThunderForce]

Sheesh, the Atlantic doesn't seem to show any signs of slowing down for a while. We're still dealing with Lee and it's possible future impacts, and now Nigel's right around the corner. Sure wish things would calm down for at least a week or something.

[WalterWhite]

The GFS and ICON models are starting to show potential development off the Iberian Peninsula around September 17. This could be Tropical Storm Ophelia.

18Z GFS:


12Z GFS:


12Z ICON:

[zzzh]

Looks extratropical on phase diagrams.

[WalterWhite]

Looks extratropical on phase diagrams.

It does not appear to be frontal. It is probably subtropical in that case.

[zzzh]

Another wave will leave Africa around Sep 20. Both EPS and GEFS have some signals on it.

[Hurricane Mike]

Quite a long Cape Verde season. Watch to see if any of these waves make it into the Caribbean in October similar to Iris 2001.

[WalterWhite]

The latest GFS run has 4 more Atlantic storms: 3 of these are originating from tropical waves in the MDR, and 1 of these is originating from a non-tropical low off the East Coast.

[Ianswfl]

18z gfs seems to be hinting towards end of the month some carribean activity as well as the ensembles just a tad. That time of year.

[mantis83]

The latest GFS run has 4 more Atlantic storms: 3 of these are originating from tropical waves in the MDR, and 1 of these is originating from a non-tropical low off the East Coast.

none of them seem to be a threat to any land, just fish storms

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS long range has a western Caribbean/Gulf storm around hour 240 but I wouldn't take it seriously yet. We'll see if other models jump on board

It also has another MDR hurricane from a wave coming off Africa around next Wednesday or so. That one seems more believable for now

[Ianswfl]

0z GFS long range has a western Caribbean/Gulf storm around hour 240 but I wouldn't take it seriously yet. We'll see if other models jump on board

It also has another MDR hurricane from a wave coming off Africa around next Wednesday or so. That one seems more believable for now

Hints of this on the 18z I mentioned. However with hot water temps if there is a lack of shear i would expect it to be much stronger. Landfall on this run is captiva area.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS long range has a western Caribbean/Gulf storm around hour 240 but I wouldn't take it seriously yet. We'll see if other models jump on board

It also has another MDR hurricane from a wave coming off Africa around next Wednesday or so. That one seems more believable for now

Hints of this on the 18z I mentioned. However with hot water temps if there is a lack of shear i would expect it to be much stronger. Landfall on this run is captiva area.

GFS loves to spin things up in that area though. 0z CMC seems to favor the EPAC and Euro isn't really in range yet so for now I'd wait for other models to join before taking it seriously.

[REDHurricane]

All three models showing a pocket of favorability somewhere around the western Caribbean to just off Florida's Atlantic coast sometime next weekend or the following couple of days. ECMWF and CMC are both trying to develop a piece of an upper level low that drops down near Florida on 9/24; meanwhile, the GFS starts trying to spin up a CAG storm off the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua that moves into Florida a few days later. Let's see which scenario will win over the next few days, GFS is most likely the one that's wrong but no guarantees yet of course.








Aaaaand right as I posted this I saw the 06z GFS has been uploaded, and it certainly fell back in line with the others...

[Hurricaneman]

The last few runs of the GFS are showing a CAG system at the end of the run, as we all know it could be bogus

[ChrisH-UK]

The GFS is showing a possible storm next weekend caused by a frontal pocket of energy been detached by TD12, the energy spins up off the coast of florida and hits South Carolina a couple of days later. ECMWF is showing a similar with it been more over the south east. Something to watch for with the sea temps something could easily bloom up out of nowhere.