TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Derek Ortt]

SAL is Saharan Air Layer

Irene seems to only be dealing with its very dry air. Often, the SAL is accompanied by a very strong low-level easterly wind surge, which would have long ago ripped apart even the MLC

[du1st]

When will the SAL end. Also do what do you have to be good at to be a mertologist?

[baygirl_1]

When will the SAL end. Also do what do you have to be good at to be a mertologist?

After talking with our area meterologists, I found out you need to be strong in Math, believe it or not. Meteorology majors have to take like 3 Calculus classes and Differential Equations. They have to be strong in Mathematical equations to handle the dynamical models. That surprised me because I thought emphasis would be more on the science, but now I can understand the concentration on Math. It's a pretty tough curriculum, I think. I'm a teacher and went to a meteorology workshop to ather info I can share with my students, some of whom I hope will become meteorologists someday.

[WeatherEmperor]

When will the SAL end. Also do what do you have to be good at to be a mertologist?

I remember yesterday I think it was our local met in South Florida Brian Norcross was mentioning that around early next week we could be in a more favorable MJO period which would mean that conditions in the Atlantic would be more favorable for development so perhaps next week.

<RICKY>

[flashflood]

at the surface, it still has not had the chance to organize.

Once this breaks out of the SAL in a couple of days, then we may very well see quick development. Be patient

very well said Derek.

<RICKY>

I agree. Derek works well with the public and gives very informative explainations. I do like reading what he has to say.

[Derek Ortt]

as for the math... lets put it this way

my degree is not only in meteorology, but also applied mathematics. I majored both in met and mathematics, as is required at UM for the degree (was not about to take the other option, which is a math minor, plus a second science minor, always physics)

[WeatherEmperor]

as for the math... lets put it this way

my degree is not only in meteorology, but also applied mathematics. I majored both in met and mathematics, as is required at UM for the degree (was not about to take the other option, which is a math minor, plus a second science minor, always physics)

which is actually more difficult? the applied mathematics or the meteorology??

<RICKY>

[elysium]

Irene is not going to make it. The western periphery of the ridge is non-existant for all intents and purposes. The models all indicate strong ridging on day 5, and it looked promising up until the wee hours this morning when it became apparent that the NHC's forecast of a weak ridge, as unlikely as it seemed, indeed was panning out. Pressures began falling all along the east coast early this morning, putting an end to any hope of even moderately reasonable ridging.

Irene will be badly hampered by poor outflow and will either skirt the mid-atlantic coast, or come in as a minimal hurricane at the most. Some erosion and minimal coastal damage, very light, can be anticipated.

Irene will never amount to more than that. It is interesting, though, how well the NHC called the weak ridge. I gave that forecast a 1 in 10 chance of panning out; really dismissed it altogether. But they are right. It's confirmed; there will only be weak ridging which effectively terminates Irene. Could be a minimal though, so should still be watched.

There are some interesting developments in the ITCZ. Looks like a southerly tracker is getting started near the midway point between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and a surprisingly strong wave just now coming off the African coast. Pay particular attention to the wave coming off the coast right now. Look at the support it is getting. This is the first wave coming off this season that is getting support as it enters into the Atlantic. This is very important. This wave will soon be a depression. Also note the subtropical ridge. Presently, it's deleteriously unresolved and lackluster. This will not be the case in 10 days, however, it won't be entrenched either. Like a great pendulum, the ridge will ebb westward and fro slightly to the east once again; now to the west, now to the east. So timing will be very important as we track this developing wave. If this developing system can catch under the high on an easterly oscillation, things could get very interesting.

Watch the southerly tracker too. This one might have some problems developing initially, but will present a wide variety of challenges if it does so. It's impossible to say whether or not it will make it into the Caribbean. If it doesn't, it's fish.

Irene will be a fun storm for the kids to track along the mid-atlantic. May get some decent waves, etc. This will be a minimal.

[Aquawind]

Could be a TS at 5pm..


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

10/1745 UTC 22.3N 57.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Paul

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Personally I think that Irene might be the next Hurricane Bob, both track and intensity wise.


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Derek Ortt]

Partial differential equations (a full year long course... 2 semesters) is by far harder than anything in met. Makes recognizing the tendency and omega equations quite easy

[WeatherEmperor]

Partial differential equations (a full year long course... 2 semesters) is by far harder than anything in met. Makes recognizing the tendency and omega equations quite easy

no offense here but you gotta be a nerd to understand all that anyways good luck with your study.

<RICKY>

[cinlfla]

10/1745 UTC 22.3N 57.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Paul

When you get the numbers for intensity, how does it knows the storms position?

[gkrangers]

10/1745 UTC 22.3N 57.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Paul

When you get the numbers for intensity, how does it knows the storms position?

Humans analyze the satellite imagery, and provide a center and intensity.

[Aquawind]

Partial differential equations (a full year long course... 2 semesters) is by far harder than anything in met. Makes recognizing the tendency and omega equations quite easy

no offense here but you gotta be a nerd to understand all that anyways good luck with your study.

<RICKY>

LOL.. That is some sick math alrighty..

Quite an accomplishment getting through those courses..of course I always hated math until I took Physics..

Paul

[cinlfla]

I don't know how they can even see the center, I for one can not find it. Is it really at 22.3 if not then please tell me where its at so I can resume tracking. Thanks

[Aquawind]

10/1745 UTC 22.3N 57.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Paul

When you get the numbers for intensity, how does it knows the storms position?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Paul

[gkrangers]

I don't know how they can even see the center, I for one can not find it. Is it really at 22.3 if not then please tell me where its at so I can resume tracking. Thanks

Well they do this for a living...but Its still difficult to determine an exact center. LLC as opposed to the MLC...they are probably very close, however.

[WindRunner]

Partial differential equations (a full year long course... 2 semesters) is by far harder than anything in met. Makes recognizing the tendency and omega equations quite easy

no offense here but you gotta be a nerd to understand all that anyways good luck with your study.

<RICKY>

LOL.. That is some sick math alrighty..

Quite an accomplishment getting through those courses..of course I always hated math until I took Physics..

Paul

It's not that bad, differential equations was my favorite part of Calculus, and I'm only 14! Guess I am a nerd . . .

[WeatherEmperor]

Partial differential equations (a full year long course... 2 semesters) is by far harder than anything in met. Makes recognizing the tendency and omega equations quite easy

no offense here but you gotta be a nerd to understand all that anyways good luck with your study.

<RICKY>

LOL.. That is some sick math alrighty..

Quite an accomplishment getting through those courses..of course I always hated math until I took Physics..

Paul

It's not that bad, differential equations was my favorite part of Calculus, and I'm only 14! Guess I am a nerd . . .

yeah nerd! hahahaha

<RICKY>