TD 10...Back Again

artist · #1461 Postby **artist** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 3:36 pm

dwg71 - since the models are STILL hinting at development it seems reasonable that some still want to follow this. Please refrain from jumping on those that wish to, ok? It would be one thing if the models didn't continue to show it or the NHC didn't mention this area in the discussions.

artist · #1462 Postby **artist** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 6:58 pm

ok guys - look at the pressure off Hispanola & the wind direction. Having followed this the last couple of days I know the pressures are about .15 - .20 less than yesterday.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MDPP.html

Dearby · #1463 Postby **Dearby** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 7:58 pm

Rather than worry about insignificant thunderstorms, did anyone catch the Dateline report on Andrew. Awesome!

Amanzi · #1464 Postby **Amanzi** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 8:19 pm

I know we are all a little "bored" right now... But please PLAY and POST NICE!! No personal attacks and lets remember to be respectful.

If you want to make a personal comment use the PM feature or contact a mod. The open forum is not a place to be rude to each other. Thanks.

#1465 Postby **vbhoutex** » Sun Aug 21, 2005 8:38 pm

OFFICIAL NOTICE!!!

In case no one noticed several offending posts by several offending posters have been removed from this thread. IF ANYONE CONTINUES THIS BASHING AND FLAMING AND RUDE POSTING this thread will be locked and removed from the board and the offending posters will receive IMMEDIATE SUSPENSION OF POSTING PRIVILEGES and will be referred to staff for consideration of further action.

This is an OFFICIAL WARNING FROM THE STAFF OF STORM2K!!!

Nimbus · #1466 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 6:45 am

Ex TD 10 is still the closest surface low with vorticity near the continental US.

Looking more and more like this will meander into the GOM where SST's are boiling.

If the remnants tracked over northern Cuba or Florida rather than through the straits organization would be hindered and that might be the end of the story.

From what I gather the track for an open wave will be different than a TD so if anyone has information such as a track model to post the thread is worth keeping open.

I'm sure there are some people in the gulf states that find this area worth checking in on.

KatDaddy · #1467 Postby **KatDaddy** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 6:54 am

I can say I will be watching the disturbance closely over the week. It looks to move into the GOM where as you state the SSTs are boiling.
I bet Joe B will having a word or two on the tropics this morning.

#1468 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 6:55 am

I am definitely still watching this area, but I know of no surface low in existence with it. Where did you get tha info and/or what did I miss in the two?

#1469 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:18 am

Nimbus wrote:Ex TD 10 is still the closest surface low with vorticity near the continental US.

Looking more and more like this will meander into the GOM where SST's are boiling.

If the remnants tracked over northern Cuba or Florida rather than through the straits organization would be hindered and that might be the end of the story.

From what I gather the track for an open wave will be different than a TD so if anyone has information such as a track model to post the thread is worth keeping open.

I'm sure there are some people in the gulf states that find this area worth checking in on.

And how close to the surface is this low according to your sources?

artist · #1470 Postby **artist** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:54 am

from the 5:30am TWO -

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

#1471 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 7:57 am

artist wrote:from the 5:30am TWO -

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS INTO THE ATLANTIC
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

Good. And also if you look at the WV imagery you can see that an Upper Low will soon cause alot of sheer over this thing. Gosh from start to finish this thing was in an unfavorable environment.

<RICKY>

gkrangers · #1472 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:38 am

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...AND DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.

DESTRUCTION5 · #1473 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:39 am

Why all the Glum this morning? I see on 4 of 5 Globals a Storm crossing FL of different calibers and bombing out in the GOM...I think Boca gets his rain and Dixie gets her wind...I think this still has a real good shot at going....

#1474 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:47 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Why all the Glum this morning? I see on 4 of 5 Globals a Storm crossing FL of different calibers and bombing out in the GOM...I think Boca gets his rain and Dixie gets her wind...I think this still has a real good shot at going....

Very true indeed. But like many others here, Im taking a stance of Ill believe it when I see it.

<RICKY>

wxwatcher91 · #1475 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 10:50 am

Code: Select all

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...AND DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.

^^^from the 1130am TWO

clfenwi · #1476 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:04 am

00

NOUS42 KNHC 221600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT MON 22 AUGUST 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUG 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-086

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 23/1430Z C. 24/0230Z
D. 22.0N 75.0W D. 23.5N 77.0W
E. 23/1700Z TO 23/2130Z E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REAMINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Flights scheduled for tomorrow...if necessary

#1477 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:05 am

so they are gonna be checking out the remnants of TD10?

<RICKY>

#1478 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:14 am

what will they find?

Sanibel · #1479 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:16 am

CNN says TD10 remnants north of Haiti being watched for gradual development.

Local weatherman keeping possibility of development over us as it drifts into Gulf Of Mexico...

dwg71 · #1480 Postby **dwg71** » Mon Aug 22, 2005 11:19 am

southfloridawx2005 wrote:what will they find?

It looks like to me that there is an ULL to the NE of the disturbed area, and there is an area of high pressure to the W and sheer to the NW. It's not the best of environments, imo.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

TD 10...Back Again

Andrew

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