2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Alyono]

what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.

I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight

What is causing all the large scale unfavorable conditions? The Atlantic MDR SSTs are the warmest since 2010 and among the warmest on record. There is no El Niño and we are in a La Niña atmosphere. Shear is near average.

the mega SAL outbreaks. Also, you cannot use basin-wide shear. Every time something gets going (Bret, TD Four, Don, Harvey), it immediately runs into a wall of shear

[tarheelprogrammer]

what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.

I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight

Going to need a lot more activity in September and October to reach the numbers goal of many organizations. ACE is about to fall far behind as well.

cannot have 3 very well defined MDR disturbances and only manage 1.5 ACE from that if we're going to come anywhere close to an above normal season

I see many experts wondering why the Atlantic is behaving this way. None have any clear answers, and again the US could escape a major hurricane hit. Though it only takes one, and the season is still two months from ending. I tried to look up the likely hood of no majors hitting the US in 12 years, but it is hard to find good information to base the probabilities on.

Going by this chart below:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastdec.shtml

You can see the average hurricane strikes per decade is 17.7, and the average major hurricane strikes per decade is 6.0.

Using the link below looking for hurricanes between 2006 and 2016. I come up with 6 hurricanes in 10 years. That is an average of 1.67 a year since 2006. So, we are currently seeing a reduction of 16.03 hurricane strikes on the US. So, it is not just major hurricane strikes that haven't happened like they should, but also hurricane strikes in general. That is a big jump to go from nearly 18 a decade to 2. This data does not include 2005, so it seems to be legit to a certain extent. However, one of the decades counted is 2001-2004 (which is only 4 seasons), which still featured 9 hurricane hits and 3 majors. My point is that a jump that big does not just happen statistically, without a major force at work.

Picture of hits below:


Also, look how empty the Gulf of Mexico is in that picture.

[CyclonicFury]

what we are seeing is that like 2013, large scale conditions were and are a giant turd burger. However, we have small pockets that become favorable at times. This results in short lived, relatively weak systems. We are seeing a large number of named storms because we have had at times quite favorable local dynamics, as well as quite strong disturbances.

I feel confident that we will approach the 18 named storms that I said in the season poll. However, the number of canes and intense hurricanes? Let's just say I gave the CFS far too much weight

What is causing all the large scale unfavorable conditions? The Atlantic MDR SSTs are the warmest since 2010 and among the warmest on record. There is no El Niño and we are in a La Niña atmosphere. Shear is near average.

the mega SAL outbreaks. Also, you cannot use basin-wide shear. Every time something gets going (Bret, TD Four, Don, Harvey), it immediately runs into a wall of shear

Doesn't SAL ease a lot in September usually? If that's the case could we expect more MDR development?

[Alyono]

What is causing all the large scale unfavorable conditions? The Atlantic MDR SSTs are the warmest since 2010 and among the warmest on record. There is no El Niño and we are in a La Niña atmosphere. Shear is near average.

the mega SAL outbreaks. Also, you cannot use basin-wide shear. Every time something gets going (Bret, TD Four, Don, Harvey), it immediately runs into a wall of shear

Doesn't SAL ease a lot in September usually? If that's the case could we expect more MDR development?

supposed to, but there are no guarantees. Tropical Atlantic was not active last September until Matthew formed. Even it struggled until it was practically on top of the Windward Islands

[Kingarabian]

Yeah the NASA model's 5 day outlook continues to show widespread moderate dust levels.

[WeatherEmperor]

So how about last year? The basin was was nearly dead until Oct/Nov when we got Matthew, Nicole and Otto. Some say a temporary collapse in the PDO caused it while others say the strenghtening La Nina caused that. Could this year be similar where we have a backloaded season?


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[CyclonicFury]

So how about last year? The basin was was nearly dead until Oct/Nov when we got Matthew, Nicole and Otto. Some say a temporary collapse in the PDO caused it while others say the strenghtening La Nina caused that. Could this year be similar where we have a backloaded season?


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I'm thinking that's possible as well, could see a major hurricane in October in either the western subtropical ATL or the Caribbean. ENSO should stay neutral, so it is unlikely we'll see an early finish.

[Hammy]

So how about last year? The basin was was nearly dead until Oct/Nov when we got Matthew, Nicole and Otto. Some say a temporary collapse in the PDO caused it while others say the strenghtening La Nina caused that. Could this year be similar where we have a backloaded season?


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I'm thinking that's possible as well, could see a major hurricane in October in either the western subtropical ATL or the Caribbean. ENSO should stay neutral, so it is unlikely we'll see an early finish.

Conditions are far worse than last year and look like they'll stay that way for the forseeable future and my confidence in this year being above normal has essentially collapsed at this point. CFS (which has been over-estimating intensity) is gradually backing off on rain/hurricane activity for September and October, and models continue to show little to nothing--if 92L doesn't develop and Harvey doesn't strengthen, it tells me that the model failure with Gert was nothing more than a fluke, and not part of a larger calibration problem. If things don't change in the next few weeks, then I'll say probably three more hurricanes the rest of the season (and no majors).

[CyclonicFury]

I highly doubt we go the entire season without a major hurricane, that is rare, especially for a non-El Niño season. I don't think we will see a major in the MDR though.

[Andrew92]

Here's something to consider. You have to remember that the MDR really wasn't that active at all in 2005. There have also been a fair amount of comparisons between this year and that dreaded year, based on the SST profiles. The MDR also doesn't look like it's about to wake up much this year.

No, in no way, shape, or form an I suggesting that 2005 is anywhere near being the analog for this year. It's not nearly as favorable even close to home as that year. But, is it comparable in another sense, that during the peak weeks, we will see more storms develop in homegrown areas, assuming the TUTT actually weakens by then? Not as many as that year, and probably none as strong as the homegrown storms that year, but enough storms that at least 2017 is remembered as relatively active, especially with such unfavorable conditions where most of these storms form. Again, one or maybe two could intensity a little more than the others I am suggesting.

It's still only August after all. September will be very interesting to watch, that is for sure. But you have to remember, even if it appears relatively quiet, it only takes one!

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

The other thing to remember for South Florida members is that based on climo August is the 3rd most active as far as South Florida hits. October has seen the most hits of any month of the year though September has seen the most majors. South Florida is more prone from hits from the south (Caribbean) than hits from the east. Considering the Western Caribbean has been one of the few favorable areas so far this season, October in particular could be interesting.

[Andrew92]

A few minutes after I wrote that post above, one storm really came to mind: Elena.

1985 is often regarded as a quite busy season, due in large part to the heavy number of landfalling storms in the US. But really, the tropical latitudes were quite unimpressive, and ACE overall was a bit on the low side overall. In fact, only Gloria had any success at all in the MDR that year as a tropical storm. And by this point, there had been four named storms, three of which were hurricanes (one with a very high pressure for a hurricane, too), but no majors.

Elena was homegrown, becoming a named storm strangely over Cuba and then ramping up in a big way in the Gulf of Mexico. It wasn't nearly as powerful as the 2005 storms were, but it still was strong enough and large enough to cause a lot of problems along the coast there.

I think if the US gets a big one this year - and I still think the chances are good despite the current overall picture - it may be a storm like Elena.

Plus, I thought I saw a post by a pro met recently when 2013 was brought up, that there are some similarities there so far this year, as well with 1985.

-Andrew92

[tolakram]

Trouble is we are getting disturbances in the western basin and they can't find good conditions.

But, it's August 19th, just a few days from when we thought we'd have a few storms. Unexpected, yes, season cancelling ... probably not, but each time this happens the odds of even a normal season go down IMO.

[tolakram]

One other thing ... the GFS upper air is showing numerous upper lows throughout the current run, including one that ends up in the western Caribbean, heading for the gulf. It's the GFS, but still the upper air pattern looks terrible for tropical formation.

[Andrew92]

I agree that overall, conditions remain terrible for tropical storm or hurricanes to really develop in the Atlantic. However, we have still had two hurricanes in recent days, one of which was very close to being a major. And just because the GFS forecasts unfavorable conditions in the long run, doesn't mean it will happen, say, two week from now.

I'm actually very concerned about what September looks like. I have read what Michael Ventrice has said about September being perhaps quite inactive, but I am not ready to just take what he says at face value. It's still historically the most active month of the year in most cases, and again, things could be a lot different by then. Last year at this time, if you had told me we would have had a late season spurt like we did, I would have thought you were crazy! But, it happened. Yes, it's not as favorable as last year, but I'm ruling nothing out with no El Nino present and conditions still supportive enough for two hurricanes in recent days in the western Atlantic.

-Andrew92

[Ntxw]

I agree that overall, conditions remain terrible for tropical storm or hurricanes to really develop in the Atlantic. However, we have still had two hurricanes in recent days, one of which was very close to being a major. And just because the GFS forecasts unfavorable conditions in the long run, doesn't mean it will happen, say, two week from now.

I'm actually very concerned about what September looks like. I have read what Michael Ventrice has said about September being perhaps quite inactive, but I am not ready to just take what he says at face value. It's still historically the most active month of the year in most cases, and again, things could be a lot different by then. Last year at this time, if you had told me we would have had a late season spurt like we did, I would have thought you were crazy! But, it happened. Yes, it's not as favorable as last year, but I'm ruling nothing out with no El Nino present and conditions still supportive enough for two hurricanes in recent days in the western Atlantic.

-Andrew92

Mike Ventrice is going by intraseasonal variability by my guess. After an active series of CCKWs and/or MJO passages you naturally follow up with less than stellar modes as the MJO continues to progress, it's not a stationary feature and in Neutral years often continues moving with 30-60 day cycles. That's what this season has behaved like, the ups and down without a true ENSO signature like of the past 2 years.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't know what September could look like in the Atlantic but I don't really want to know seeing how much systems are struggling to stay alive right now. I know things can change like a flick of a switch like last season but I'm not betting on it. All I know is the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean are really struggling to produce anything significant at all this season so far.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This is a lot of SAL. A lot. Hammer is coming down.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the surpressed phase is coming into the ATL

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 8057818118


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[cycloneye]

Yikes!

@MJVentrice
There is a weak suppressed KW phase on the backside of the active KW that just passed Atlantic. Bigger suppressed phase still coming

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/899013298057818118