2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[SFLcane]

Looking at long-range GEFS this morning and it actually has a very hostile environment into late August now.

[AlphaToOmega]

Looking at long-range GEFS this morning and it actually has a very hostile environment into late August now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zXXBbYnx/7-CDE62-C6-AFE8-4-BB0-814-D-42976-F174-B1-B.jpg

I would not trust it. The GFS always wants to kill the WAM.

[SFLcane]

Looking at long-range GEFS this morning and it actually has a very hostile environment into late August now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zXXBbYnx/7-CDE62-C6-AFE8-4-BB0-814-D-42976-F174-B1-B.jpg

I would not trust it. The GFS always wants to kill the WAM.

Let's give it a week and see because yeah I think it could be a bias.

[cycloneye]

It all depends on what happens in WPAC.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1417834562852466689




 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1417837669887856647

[SFLcane]

It all depends on what happens in WPAC.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1417834562852466689

Luis, nothing abnormal there in any given season activity doesn’t pick up till mid August. If the EPS weeklies are correct it’s a go about after August 15-20 which conditions become quite favorable.

[AutoPenalti]

Looking at long-range GEFS this morning and it actually has a very hostile environment into late August now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zXXBbYnx/7-CDE62-C6-AFE8-4-BB0-814-D-42976-F174-B1-B.jpg

Not the first time the GEFS pushes back the VP time frame.

[Stormybajan]

Looking at long-range GEFS this morning and it actually has a very hostile environment into late August now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zXXBbYnx/7-CDE62-C6-AFE8-4-BB0-814-D-42976-F174-B1-B.jpg

Hmmm i'll comeback to this August 1st, if its still showing this pattern then I guess we are looking at another back loaded season. Since 2012 only 2017 seemed to have a decently active early-ish August which is interesting

[aspen]

Looking at long-range GEFS this morning and it actually has a very hostile environment into late August now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zXXBbYnx/7-CDE62-C6-AFE8-4-BB0-814-D-42976-F174-B1-B.jpg

That looks like the opposite of what you would see in a cool ENSO year like what 2021 will be. It also doesn’t make sense when looking at what the activity in the EPac and Atlantic has shown: mostly struggling storms in the EPac, and a very good AEW train and early MDR activity in the Atlantic. That, and it’s also in the very long range and subject to change.

Some models are going to bust really badly by peak season. I’m inclined to believe the ones with abnormally unfavorable conditions that don’t match up with what else has been seen and modeled, but it’s still early and it’s entirely possible the favorable forecasts bust instead.

[Category5Kaiju]

I mean when was the last recent season to feature a very active early August? In recent years major hurricanes did not occur until mid to late August

[Deshaunrob17]

Let's see if the GEFS is right. Last month many were doubting the CFS with the breakdown of the African standing have in July. While it's prediction was a little too robust, it was closer to reality. If the GEFS is right, I'm sure it's not going to be for long since we're heading into a La Nina like pattern

[aspen]

I mean when was the last recent season to feature a very active early August? In recent years major hurricanes did not occur until mid to late August

2012 had a record-tying number of named storms in August, including several hurricanes like Ernesto and Isaac, but none became majors.

2016 had Hurricane Earl in early August, then a bit of a break until TS Fiona and C3 Gaston starting mid-month. This year didn’t have a continuous active phase, as most of September was filled with struggling storms between C1 Hermine at the start and C4 Matthew at the end (no that’s not a typo).

2017 saw C1 Franklin (essential Earl 2.0) in early August, then C2 (almost C3) Gert in mid August, which began the record-breaking streak of continuous named storm days until Maria and Lee dissipated at the end of September. Therefore, we can say that 2017 began its peak phase of activity in mid August.

2018 had a very lackluster August, with two weak subtropical systems — one of which choked on wildfire smoke and died — and didn’t get going until the formation of Florence on August 31st. The start of 2018’s active phase was two weeks later than 2017’s.

2019 had a month-long break between Barry the Abomination and TS Chantal, with Dorian forming the next day on August 24th. Therefore, we can say that 2019’s active phase also started later than 2017, between August 20-25th.

2020 had C1 Isaias from July make it into August and reach peak intensity during the first week of the month, so it’s technically both a July and August hurricane. It then took a break and didn’t have any storms until around August 15th, then the active phase truly began the following week when Laura and Marco formed, a little later than 2017.

All of the seasons in the most recent active streak either had an early August hurricane followed by a break until mid-late August, or had a backloaded month. 2010 and 2011 also didn’t really get going until late August, with 2011 not being able to generate a hurricane until Irene. Therefore, if 2021 also takes a while to really get going…we shouldn’t be surprised.

[Category5Kaiju]

Let's see if the GEFS is right. Last month many were doubting the CFS with the breakdown of the African standing have in July. While it's prediction was a little too robust, it was closer to reality. If the GEFS is right, I'm sure it's not going to be for long since we're heading into a La Nina like pattern

Yeah whatever happens we know this:

1. There's an Atlantic Nino and the ITCZ is pretty south and robust
2. The chances of entering another La Nina is very high
3. We already had an MDR hurricane

Sure those are only 3 signs out of many variables off course, but I still firmly believe that this season will ultimately be quite active and that I simply cannot fathom a 2013 failure as some on social media are once again discussing with these model battles.

[Deshaunrob17]

I mean when was the last recent season to feature a very active early August? In recent years major hurricanes did not occur until mid to late August

2012 had a record-tying number of named storms in August, including several hurricanes like Ernesto and Isaac, but none became majors.

2016 had Hurricane Earl in early August, then a bit of a break until TS Fiona and C3 Gaston starting mid-month. This year didn’t have a continuous active phase, as most of September was filled with struggling storms between C1 Hermine at the start and C4 Matthew at the end (no that’s not a typo).

2017 saw C1 Franklin (essential Earl 2.0) in early August, then C2 (almost C3) Gert in mid August, which began the record-breaking streak of continuous named storm days until Maria and Lee dissipated at the end of September. Therefore, we can say that 2017 began its peak phase of activity in mid August.

2018 had a very lackluster August, with two weak subtropical systems — one of which choked on wildfire smoke and died — and didn’t get going until the formation of Florence on August 31st. The start of 2018’s active phase was two weeks later than 2017’s.

2019 had a month-long break between Barry the Abomination and TS Chantal, with Dorian forming the next day on August 24th. Therefore, we can say that 2019’s active phase also started later than 2017, between August 20-25th.

2020 had C1 Isaias from July make it into August and reach peak intensity during the first week of the month, so it’s technically both a July and August hurricane. It then took a break and didn’t have any storms until around August 15th, then the active phase truly began the following week when Laura and Marco formed, a little later than 2017.

All of the seasons in the most recent active streak either had an early August hurricane followed by a break until mid-late August, or had a backloaded month. 2010 and 2011 also didn’t really get going until late August, with 2011 not being able to generate a hurricane until Irene. Therefore, if 2021 also takes a while to really get going…we shouldn’t be surprised.

Gert (2017) was probably a Cat3 at some point in time in my opinion

[Shell Mound]

Looking at long-range GEFS this morning and it actually has a very hostile environment into late August now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zXXBbYnx/7-CDE62-C6-AFE8-4-BB0-814-D-42976-F174-B1-B.jpg

Hmmm i'll comeback to this August 1st, if its still showing this pattern then I guess we are looking at another back loaded season. Since 2012 only 2017 seemed to have a decently active early-ish August which is interesting

If the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season were to be delayed, for the most part, until the last week of August, then the EPS’s H5 composite for September is startlingly similar to that of the years that featured at least one hurricane impact on Long Island, NY, during the month of September. These years include the infamous seasons of 1938, 1944, 1960, and 1985. When blended with the years 1945 and 1949 as well, the composite becomes even more similar to the EPS’s H5 forecast for September. One interesting difference between the two subsets is that 1945 and 1949 featured a stronger +PNA signature than the years that featured a hurricane impact on Long Island, suggesting a PDO closer to positive rather than negative territory, and the EPS’s forecast suggests more of a neutral PDO/PNA, in line with recent trends indicating a rise in the PDO over the past month or so. This kind of setup would suggest the potential for a CV-type long-tracker that impacts much of the U.S. East Coast from South FL northward to the Carolinas and New England, similar to Donna (1960).

[cycloneye]

MJO is going to move according to the new GEFS to get closer to ECMWF. With La Niña developing, what GEFS had to keep the MJO stationary was not physically correct.

[Category5Kaiju]

MJO is going to move according to the new GEFS to get closer to ECMWF. With La Niña developing, what GEFS had to keep the MJO stationary was not physically correct.

https://i.imgur.com/8jsb5Uc.gif

Yeah I mean if we were in a warm neutral or El Nino year or perhaps dead neutral then what GEFS had would have been more credible, but we have a very solid and real chance at returning to a La Nina state (weak Nina even perhaps) later this season. I simply cannot see, with that in mind, why the Atlantic would not be favored come mid-August and the rest of the year, it just goes against convention.

[SFLcane]

I for one think the GEFS is biased. Speaking of the Mdr we are coming along give it a few weeks.

[AlphaToOmega]

Looking at long-range GEFS this morning and it actually has a very hostile environment into late August now.

https://i.postimg.cc/zXXBbYnx/7-CDE62-C6-AFE8-4-BB0-814-D-42976-F174-B1-B.jpg

Hmmm i'll comeback to this August 1st, if its still showing this pattern then I guess we are looking at another back loaded season. Since 2012 only 2017 seemed to have a decently active early-ish August which is interesting

https://i.postimg.cc/g0mn1hLM/EC51003-B-BA3-B-48-AB-933-C-1343-E10-E7-CDE.png
https://i.ibb.co/jvrbBbv/LIhurrimpact-2.png
https://i.ibb.co/tQXKZ6J/LIFLhurrcomp-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/51MdKPL/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-21-kl-16-28-46.png

If the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season were to be delayed, for the most part, until the last week of August, then the EPS’s H5 composite for September is startlingly similar to that of the years that featured at least one hurricane impact on Long Island, NY, during the month of September. These years include the infamous seasons of 1938, 1944, 1960, and 1985. When blended with the years 1945 and 1949 as well, the composite becomes even more similar to the EPS’s H5 forecast for September. One interesting difference between the two subsets is that 1945 and 1949 featured a stronger +PNA signature than the years that featured a hurricane impact on Long Island, suggesting a PDO closer to positive rather than negative territory, and the EPS’s forecast suggests more of a neutral PDO/PNA, in line with recent trends indicating a rise in the PDO over the past month or so. This kind of setup would suggest the potential for a CV-type long-tracker that impacts much of the U.S. East Coast from South FL northward to the Carolinas and New England, similar to Donna (1960).

What are you using for the storm tracks?

[Shell Mound]

Hmmm i'll comeback to this August 1st, if its still showing this pattern then I guess we are looking at another back loaded season. Since 2012 only 2017 seemed to have a decently active early-ish August which is interesting

https://i.postimg.cc/g0mn1hLM/EC51003-B-BA3-B-48-AB-933-C-1343-E10-E7-CDE.png
https://i.ibb.co/jvrbBbv/LIhurrimpact-2.png
https://i.ibb.co/tQXKZ6J/LIFLhurrcomp-1.png
https://i.ibb.co/51MdKPL/Ska-rmavbild-2021-07-21-kl-16-28-46.png

If the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season were to be delayed, for the most part, until the last week of August, then the EPS’s H5 composite for September is startlingly similar to that of the years that featured at least one hurricane impact on Long Island, NY, during the month of September. These years include the infamous seasons of 1938, 1944, 1960, and 1985. When blended with the years 1945 and 1949 as well, the composite becomes even more similar to the EPS’s H5 forecast for September. One interesting difference between the two subsets is that 1945 and 1949 featured a stronger +PNA signature than the years that featured a hurricane impact on Long Island, suggesting a PDO closer to positive rather than negative territory, and the EPS’s forecast suggests more of a neutral PDO/PNA, in line with recent trends indicating a rise in the PDO over the past month or so. This kind of setup would suggest the potential for a CV-type long-tracker that impacts much of the U.S. East Coast from South FL northward to the Carolinas and New England, similar to Donna (1960).

What are you using for the storm tracks?

https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

As an aside, why are you using 2004 and 2017 as analogs for 2021 in some of your previous posts? Do you have any evidence? Those are extreme years.

[Shell Mound]

I for one think the GEFS is biased. Speaking of the Mdr we are coming along give it a few weeks.

https://i.postimg.cc/vmT3vwTY/EE641453-BE09-49-E2-98-A1-BEE4-CF63-FA67.jpg

That looks like a classic -AMM/-AMO. It barely seems to have changed over the past few months. Models have consistently shown too much warming.