2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[skyline385]

This entire thread (bar the earlier drama) is pretty interesting

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1544076893145767937

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1544379077930491907?s=20&t=oQoLBifA2siB0FVgyIMbhQ

I've always been a proponent of SST's not being nearly as big a factor as long as they are at least near normal. Atmospheric conditions locally and abroad are the key for me.

[skyline385]

Oh great, that Euro forecast is now showing enhanced TC activity in the Gulf. Like we haven’t gotten enough of that over the last two years. I’m half expecting another female name high-end Cat 4 in the Gulf at the end of August this year.

Considering how the current SSTs in the Gulf are higher than 2005 with one of the strongest loop current seen in recent years (with high OHC and MPI), i am personally not surprised at the Gulf activity forecast.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1544386562204614659

[aspen]

Oh great, that Euro forecast is now showing enhanced TC activity in the Gulf. Like we haven’t gotten enough of that over the last two years. I’m half expecting another female name high-end Cat 4 in the Gulf at the end of August this year.

Can you provide an example of this Euro forecast? I am not that familiar with the reliability of the Euro forecast, (or how to look at it myself)

Here’s the chart with the high/low TC probabilities: https://mobile.twitter.com/dmorris9661/ ... 4409480192

[skyline385]

Oh great, that Euro forecast is now showing enhanced TC activity in the Gulf. Like we haven’t gotten enough of that over the last two years. I’m half expecting another female name high-end Cat 4 in the Gulf at the end of August this year.

Can you provide an example of this Euro forecast? I am not that familiar with the reliability of the Euro forecast, (or how to look at it myself)

Here’s the chart with the high/low TC probabilities: https://mobile.twitter.com/dmorris9661/ ... 4409480192

Also for underthwx, you can view the SEAS5 forecasts and compare them to previous years on the ECMWF website

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/char ... 0&zone=atl

[Category5Kaiju]

I have been posting this every year in the indicators thread, so I will post it again to remind people of what we go through here. Haha!

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

I swear, one of these days (could be this year or the next or 5 years from now, but who knows really?), there’s gonna be a major landfalling hurricane during the August 1-15 timeframe, defying points 3 and 4. Imagine what would happen if we got an Allen or Dean redux lol

[captainbarbossa19]

I have been posting this every year in the indicators thread, so I will post it again to remind people of what we go through here. Haha!

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

I swear, one of these days (could be this year or the next or 5 years from now, but who knows really?), there’s gonna be a major landfalling hurricane during the August 1-15 timeframe, defying points 3 and 4. Imagine what would happen if we got an Allen or Dean redux lol

Yeah. This timeline is not always correct, but it's usually correct. We usually don't see our first major until after August 20th, but that does not mean it cannot happen earlier because it has plenty of times.

[AnnularCane]

I have been posting this every year in the indicators thread, so I will post it again to remind people of what we go through here. Haha!

Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

1. June 1st: Everyone is excited about the upcoming season. Many are anticipating upcoming action later in the month, but most know that the real action will most likely start in August.

2. July 1st: One or two TCs manage to form in June. Many complain about how weak and disorganized the cyclones are.

3. July 15th: Lots of SAL is present in the Atlantic basin. However, most people are not surprised by this, as they were expecting it.

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.

5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

6. August 23rd: There are multiple invests in the Atlantic and conditions are rapidly beginning to change. The models begin to show cyclogenesis. Many quickly change their minds about a quieter season.

7. August 24th: Some experts continue to doubt signs of the Atlantic awakening. These experts issue outlooks that support original ideas of a quieter season.

8. August 31st: There is now at least one active TC. There is a potential that at least one TC could become a hurricane. Many people appear shocked by the increased activity.

9. September 30th: Several TCs have already formed and dissipated. A few who suggested that the season would be quiet now state that they always knew the Atlantic would spring to life.

10. November 30th: The last storm probably has dissipated by this point. Many look back at the season and state that they are surprised with the outcome.

Every season I remember this thread but am never sure how to find it.

[weeniepatrol]

I have been posting this every year in the indicators thread, so I will post it again to remind people of what we go through here. Haha!

[size=150]Captain Barbossa's Tropical Cyclone Timeline:

It literally never fails; it's basically natural law

[USTropics]

I think we can definitively state there will be storms in August, September, and October. Steering currents begin to matter more with the spring barrier behind us, and we can begin to glean some information on potential patterns from July/August seasonal model forecasts (ASO verification scores are higher in July, although lower lead time is stating the obvious). Just as it's always best to use a blend of model runs for dynamic forecasts, seasonal forecasts behave the same way, so will refrain from posting single model runs and wait until the full Copernicus and NMME data set and model blends are available next week to plot 500mb forecasts for ASO. In the meantime, here is a new product that shows 500mb height anomalies and storm tracks from August of the past 20 years. Storm tracks use Saffir-Simpson colorscale with 500mb height anom as background maptile:

[wxman57]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1544379077930491907?s=20&t=oQoLBifA2siB0FVgyIMbhQ

I've always been a proponent of SST's not being nearly as big a factor as long as they are at least near normal. Atmospheric conditions locally and abroad are the key for me.

In the past, I've said that you could boil the oceans and that won't generate more hurricanes. However, the ocean temperatures can provide a clue as to how favorable the atmosphere may be for development. For example, a warming in the MDR suggests weaker low-level easterlies, meaning decreased low-level wind shear. Stronger easterlies, as we've seen since 2017, cause upwelling of cooler water. It's not the cooler water that hinders development, it's the stronger easterlies. That's just one example of how SST anomalies can be used to determine if a region will be favorable for development.

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1544379077930491907?s=20&t=oQoLBifA2siB0FVgyIMbhQ

I've always been a proponent of SST's not being nearly as big a factor as long as they are at least near normal. Atmospheric conditions locally and abroad are the key for me.

In the past, I've said that you could boil the oceans and that won't generate more hurricanes. However, the ocean temperatures can provide a clue as to how favorable the atmosphere may be for development. For example, a warming in the MDR suggests weaker low-level easterlies, meaning decreased low-level wind shear. Stronger easterlies, as we've seen since 2017, cause upwelling of cooler water. It's not the cooler water that hinders development, it's the stronger easterlies. That's just one example of how SST anomalies can be used to determine if a region will be favorable for development.

In addition to what wxman said above, CSU forecasts also contain a clear correlation of SST with seasonal activity.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1544379077930491907?s=20&t=oQoLBifA2siB0FVgyIMbhQ

I've always been a proponent of SST's not being nearly as big a factor as long as they are at least near normal. Atmospheric conditions locally and abroad are the key for me.

In the past, I've said that you could boil the oceans and that won't generate more hurricanes. However, the ocean temperatures can provide a clue as to how favorable the atmosphere may be for development. For example, a warming in the MDR suggests weaker low-level easterlies, meaning decreased low-level wind shear. Stronger easterlies, as we've seen since 2017, cause upwelling of cooler water. It's not the cooler water that hinders development, it's the stronger easterlies. That's just one example of how SST anomalies can be used to determine if a region will be favorable for development.

Hi wxman57, Interesting point surely but I always thought Warmer SSTs fuel hurricanes through surface fluxes And also enhanced instability. Need both the dynamics and thermodynamics. Are you still thinking the Caribbean and Florida are at heighten risk this season?

Thanks!

[cycloneye]

I've always been a proponent of SST's not being nearly as big a factor as long as they are at least near normal. Atmospheric conditions locally and abroad are the key for me.

In the past, I've said that you could boil the oceans and that won't generate more hurricanes. However, the ocean temperatures can provide a clue as to how favorable the atmosphere may be for development. For example, a warming in the MDR suggests weaker low-level easterlies, meaning decreased low-level wind shear. Stronger easterlies, as we've seen since 2017, cause upwelling of cooler water. It's not the cooler water that hinders development, it's the stronger easterlies. That's just one example of how SST anomalies can be used to determine if a region will be favorable for development.

Hi wxman57, Interesting point surely but I always thought Warmer SSTs fuel hurricanes through surface fluxes And also enhanced instability. Need both the dynamics and thermodynamics. Are you still thinking the Caribbean and Florida are at heighten risk this season?

Thanks!

57, what about the NE Caribbean?

[Category5Kaiju]

Several interesting things that I have noted: with the comparisons between this year and other hyperactive, non-2020/2017/2010/2005 years (namely 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2003), I figured sharing some unique, recurring aspects of those seasons.

1996, 1998, 1999, and 2003 were all hyperactive, less-than-200 ACE years with marginal MDR warmth in the summer (at least compared to years like 2005 or 2017). However, many of those years featured a relatively average to below-average number of total NSs (14 or less, with 2003 having 16, which is still less than the crazy 18+ NS seasons we've been having recently) but also featured at least one so-called "Eastern Seaboard buster system," with such being Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, and Isabel respectively. In fact, the non-hyperactive analogs for this year that I see being thrown around often (namely 1989 and 2011) also had a notable system that hit the Eastern Seaboard (Hugo and Irene respectively).

It remains to be seen what 2022 will bring, but it is indeed quite interesting in particular to see how many of the years that are being compared to this year had at least one very devastating and notable hurricane hit the Eastern Seaboard north of Florida.

[underthwx]

I read that since 1950, there have only been approximately 45 named storms between July 7 and July 21, I'm not sure of the reasons why,, but I am curious. Given the forecast of more activity this season, will 2022 be any different? Will the historical statistic hold true for the current season?

[underthwx]

A quick thankyou for all of you who indulge my many questions, during my quest for knowledge...many thanks!

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1544747445040680961

[skyline385]

Several interesting things that I have noted: with the comparisons between this year and other hyperactive, non-2020/2017/2010/2005 years (namely 1996, 1998, 1999, and 2003), I figured sharing some unique, recurring aspects of those seasons.

1996, 1998, 1999, and 2003 were all hyperactive, less-than-200 ACE years with marginal MDR warmth in the summer (at least compared to years like 2005 or 2017). However, many of those years featured a relatively average to below-average number of total NSs (14 or less, with 2003 having 16, which is still less than the crazy 18+ NS seasons we've been having recently) but also featured at least one so-called "Eastern Seaboard buster system," with such being Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, and Isabel respectively. In fact, the non-hyperactive analogs for this year that I see being thrown around often (namely 1989 and 2011) also had a notable system that hit the Eastern Seaboard (Hugo and Irene respectively).

It remains to be seen what 2022 will bring, but it is indeed quite interesting in particular to see how many of the years that are being compared to this year had at least one very devastating and notable hurricane hit the Eastern Seaboard north of Florida.

2000 is an analog year (It is the one Blake is sticking with on wxtwitter) I have seen being discussed a lot recently. It was also a third year Nina and did not have an east coast hitter actually.

 https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1543696721053712384