TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[x-y-no]

I don't know how they can even see the center, I for one can not find it. Is it really at 22.3 if not then please tell me where its at so I can resume tracking. Thanks

I'd put it at about 22.8 58.2 now. Don't know if there was a relocation north, or if it was moving more northerly than I thought earlier today.

It's getting easier to see the lower circulation now that the convection is dissipating again. Motion looks to be west, so maybe it was a relocation earlier.

[x-y-no]

It's not that bad, differential equations was my favorite part of Calculus, and I'm only 14! Guess I am a nerd . . .

Partial differential equations are just a tad more complicated than ordinary differential calculus.

[Scorpion]

Ugh im getting so sick of Irene, its stayed a TD for like 5 days its doing nothing and we have no idea where its going.

[gatorcane]

Ugh im getting so sick of Irene, its stayed a TD for like 5 days its doing nothing and we have no idea where its going.

Yes exactly. lol.

[Hurricaneman]

Irene is like a 3000 piece puzzle, it takes alot to fiogure it out

[Brent]

Ugh im getting so sick of Irene, its stayed a TD for like 5 days its doing nothing and we have no idea where its going.

That's what weather is all about. If it was predictable, why are we here???

[Aquawind]

Ugh im getting so sick of Irene, its stayed a TD for like 5 days its doing nothing and we have no idea where its going.

LOL.. try some of the pink stuff...

Paul

[CronkPSU]

5 pm updates:

still a TD and still moving the forecast west

[WindRunner]

It's not that bad, differential equations was my favorite part of Calculus, and I'm only 14! Guess I am a nerd . . .

Partial differential equations are just a tad more complicated than ordinary differential calculus.

You're right there, we did a few of those and they sure weren't quick.

BTW, looks like some rapid strengthening at 96-120hr in the new forecast:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 22.8N 58.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 23.2N 60.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 24.1N 62.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 25.1N 65.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 26.1N 67.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 27.4N 69.6W 55 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 32.0N 75.5W 70 KT

[Scorpion]

Im beginning to think this won't do much. People kept saying "oh watch this rapidly strengthen today" etc but nothing.

[CronkPSU]

wow, they weren't kidding about the models being clustered for the next few days

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

[gkrangers]

It's not that bad, differential equations was my favorite part of Calculus, and I'm only 14! Guess I am a nerd . . .

Partial differential equations are just a tad more complicated than ordinary differential calculus.

You're right there, we did a few of those and they sure weren't quick.

BTW, looks like some rapid strengthening at 96-120hr in the new forecast:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/2100Z 22.8N 58.8W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/0600Z 23.2N 60.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/1800Z 24.1N 62.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/0600Z 25.1N 65.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/1800Z 26.1N 67.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 13/1800Z 27.4N 69.6W 55 KT
96HR VT 14/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 15/1800Z 32.0N 75.5W 70 KT

5kts in 24 hours is not rapid. Its doubtful Irene ever has the perfect environment needed for storms to explode. Steady and slow is the best bet.

[WindRunner]

wow, they weren't kidding about the models being clustered for the next few days

That run just shows that the stronger system will take the more northerly curve, look at the BAMS, BAMM, and BAMD. The deeper the storm, the further north it will go.

And no, 5kts in 24hrs is not rapid, but I can see the 10kt increase being carried over, if not increased, from the previous 24hrs.

[deltadog03]

i said in another thread...i still don't see a 285 movement right now...but, it is very hard to find the center

[cycloneye]

ONE THING
THAT THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD ENSURE IS THAT OUTER
CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL NOT EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER...WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO KEEP IRENE A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SMALL
TROPICAL CYCLONES TEND NOT TO PLOW THROUGH STRONG RIDGES.


The above from 5 Pm Discussion:

Look how Stewart points out how small cyclones behave against a strong ridge.

[Wnghs2007]

Hmmm, Very interesting Tropical Depression we have going on right now in the Atlantic Ocean. Its overall structure seems to be markedly improved from the 1 or two isolated thunderstorm clusters it had last night.

Yet this post makes it the year 1495 or, err I mean post 1495 in this thread.

[mvtrucking]

10/1745 UTC 22.3N 57.5W T2.0/2.0 IRENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Paul

When you get the numbers for intensity, how does it knows the storms position?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Paul

It seems she has stayed basically west (Below 22.5) How long will this last?3-5 days?Wouldn't that be something?

[SouthFloridawx]

GFDL is finally starting to turn it's opinion about Irene. Here is the 126th hours of the 12Z run

[jasons2k]

GA SST's

http://www.savannah-weather.com/poes/sst.htm

[WindRunner]

Wow, those are ridiculous